Kocherlakota Favors No Rate Hike in 2015

January 9th, 2015 6:15 am

Via Reuters last night:

Reuters) – The Federal Reserve should leave short-term borrowing costs near zero for a seventh year in a row, a top Fed official urged on Thursday, citing sliding U.S. inflation and still-high unemployment.

The Fed “can best achieve its macroeconomic objectives by not raising the fed funds rate target this year,” Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said in remarks prepared for delivery to a town hall at his bank’s headquarters. “Raising the target range for the fed funds rate in 2015 would only further retard the pace of the slow recovery in inflation.”

The Fed has kept short-term interest rates near zero since December 2008 in order to boost investment, hiring and growth. Unemployment is at 5.8 percent, down from a recession-era peak of 10 percent, and economic growth has been fairly strong.

Most Fed policymakers think the central bank should start raising interest rates this year, with many viewing mid-year as an appropriate starting point.

Kocherlakota is only one of two Fed policymakers who want to delay any rate hikes until 2016. He dissented three times last year as the Fed wound down its bond-buying stimulus and signaled rate hikes could come in 2015.

To Kocherlakota, low inflation means the Fed “could have, and should have” added more stimulus to bring down unemployment faster.

Unemployment is still several percentage points above what most Fed officials view as normal.

And inflation, which has lingered well below the Fed’s 2-percent goal for more than 2-1/2 years, slipped further as 2014 came to a close, with bets in financial markets signaling declines in longer-term inflation expectations as well.

Unless the Fed responds, “the public could increasingly perceive the (Fed) as aiming at a lower inflation rate,” undermining the effectiveness of its monetary policy, he said.

Kocherlakota does not vote on Fed policy this year, and has announced plans to resign by early next year. But he will take part in policy-setting meetings, the next one of which is scheduled in about three weeks.

 

Overnight Yield Curve

January 9th, 2015 6:10 am

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered bifurcated results in overnight trading. Yields at the very front end ( three years and in) are a tad higher while long er dated benchmarks have registered gains with the best gains in the longest maturities. So the market has erased some of the outsized steepening which occurred yesterday. The 5s 10s spread has flattened to 51 basis points from 52.7 at the NY close. The 5s 30s spread has narrowed back to 108.7 from 110.9 and 10s 30s has narrowed to 57.9 from 58.2. In the shorter end 2s 5s narrowed to 87 from 88.4.

ECB QE Planning

January 9th, 2015 5:41 am

This is from a fully paid up subscriber overseas and exactly as he sent it to me. I do not have the source.

*ECB STAFF SAID TO HAVE OUTLINED EU500B INVESTMENT GRADE QE PLAN
*ECB STAFF STUDY SAID TO FOCUS ON INVESTMENT-GRADE GOVT BONDS
*ECB SAID NOT TO HAVE TAKEN ANY DECISION ON QE
*ECB STAFF STUDY SAID TO HAVE SIDESTEPPED GREEK-DEBT TREATMENT
*ECB STAFF SAID TO HAVE SHOWN QE OPTIONS TO GOVERNORS ON JAN. 7
*ECB STAFF STUDY SAID TO CONSIDER MONTHLY OR TOTAL TARGET SIZES

Thar She Blows: London Whale Revived

January 8th, 2015 8:50 pm

The Wall Street Journal reports on the Federal Reserve’s internal investigation of JPMorgan’s London trading debacle and reason for the failure of regulators to uncover that mismanaged risk.

Via the WSJ:
Markets
Full Report on ‘London Whale’ Incident Sheds More Light on New York Fed Role
Turf Battles, Crisis-Related Distractions Complicated New York Fed’s Supervision of J.P Morgan
By
Victoria McGrane and
Ryan Tracy
Updated Jan. 8, 2015 7:05 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s failure to examine J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s investment unit ahead of the bank’s 2012 “London Whale” trading debacle stemmed from turf battles with other regulators, an overreliance on J.P. Morgan’s solid reputation and financial crisis-related distractions.

A full version of the Fed’s Office of Inspector General’s report on its years long investigation into the incident sheds additional light on how the New York Fed stumbled in its oversight of the bank’s chief investment office, where the traders engaging in the problematic derivatives transactions were based.

The Inspector General had previously released only a four-page summary of its report, which said the New York Fed failed to examine the CIO ahead of the trading debacle despite the fact that a team of Fed experts had recommended a “full-scope examination” in August 2009. The New York Fed team never carried that examination out. The Wall Street Journal obtained the full report through an open records request, though passages were redacted.

The report also includes the Fed’s response to the IG, including some resistance by top Fed officials to the IG’s conclusions. Michael Gibson, the Fed’s director of Banking Supervision and Regulation, pinned the “Whale” failures on a lack of resources. “The resource challenges faced by the Federal Reserve System and the FRBNY during this period cannot be underestimated,” he wrote. In light of that, the Fed believes it was “wholly appropriate” to rely primarily on the OCC, he said.

A letter from senior New York Fed officials included in the report said the IG’s findings were “incomplete.” The New York Fed “never knew that there were trading irregularities in the CIO,” and the recommendation that the New York Fed examine the office was a result of staffing changes at J.P. Morgan “and not because of any finding or any other reason,” the letter said. New York Fed staff also communicated regularly with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the letter said.
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Given that the New York Fed was strapped for resources and the OCC and J.P. Morgan were both monitoring the bank’s CIO unit “it is not reasonable to substitute the OIG’s priority judgment, in hindsight, for the New York Fed’s,” the letter said.

The IG’s report said interviews with supervisory staff from both the New York Fed and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency revealed a poor relationship between the two teams assigned to oversee J.P. Morgan’s CIO unit, according to the report. One New York Fed staffer described the relationship between the two teams as “tense,” and indicated that the leads on both supervisory teams did not cooperate,” the report said.

Some New York Fed officials complained the OCC team was “territorial,” defending their role as the lead regulator over J.P. Morgan’s national bank unit, in which the CIO was housed. In one case, New York Fed examiners tried to join an OCC visit of the CIO unit but weren’t allowed to, the report said.

There were also hints that J.P. Morgan’s reputation as a strong bank colored the New York Fed’s view and treatment of the megabank. The New York Fed “placed too much reliance on JPMC internal audit’s review, which concluded in the first half of 2009,” before a team of experts from across the Fed system recommended a full exam of the unit. Mr. Gibson said in his response that such a conclusion wasn’t fully supported.

The full report goes into further detail about the ways in which the New York Fed was overwhelmed with new responsibilities during and after the crisis, which the IG concludes contributed to its neglect of the CIO unit. Competing priorities for the New York Fed’s J.P. Morgan team included the integration of Bear Stearns, which it purchased in 2008, implementation of new capital rules and the Fed’s new “stress-test” exercise. “These activities strained the availability” of resources, the report said.

In his response to the IG, Mr. Gibson questioned whether the stress tests sapped time from the J.P. Morgan supervisory team, saying much of the work for them isn’t conducted by supervisors assigned to banks like J.P. Morgan, but by other Fed staff.

The IG said J.P. Morgan’s relative strength contributed to the resource problem faced by the New York Fed team in charge of J.P. Morgan. “Given JPMC’s stronger financial condition relative to its peers, [the New York Fed team] also had difficulty making a compelling case for additional resources,” the report said.

The IG said those demands reinforced its conclusion the New York Fed should have tried to reach out to the OCC team, given its resource constraints.

 

Early Afternoon Miscellany

January 8th, 2015 12:10 pm

The Treasury yield curve has steepened rather significantly today. The 5s 10s spread opened at 48.9 and it is now 50.7 . The 10s 30s spread opened at 56 and is now 57.9. The move in 5s 30 is even more dramatic as it moved to 109.6 from 104.7 early this morning. I think there are several factors driving the move along the curve.

There has been some real money selling today. Dealers report pension funds and insurance company sellers of the long end and some of the same folks unwinding flattening trades established in the swap market. One portfolio manager with whom I spoke thought that dealers were gun shy and risk averse as they are operating at the beginning of the year with tabla rasa and they do not want to start the year on the wrong foot. So that mindset has exacerbated the move. In addition the sharp move has caught some fast money types with less than optimal flatteners and those traders are exiting those positions in advance of the labor data.

One trader noted the movement in the 30 year BUND and suggested that is having a knock on effect in our market. He noted that yesterday the 30 year Bund traded rapidly from 1.15 yield down to 1.08 and has reversed to where it was a few minutes ago trading at 1.31 percent. Some of that long end weakness is percolating over to our market.

Swap spreads are pretty much unchanged. Clients are particularly quiet today but traders anticipate that as deal flow prices the level of activity will increase. In that market dealers remained positioned for tighter spreads as they anticipate deal swapping.

 

Corporate Bond Spreads

January 8th, 2015 9:31 am

1/7 CLOSE      1/8 OPEN      CHANGE

C  24      133/130        131/128          -2
WFC 24      108/105        107/104          -1
BAC 24      134/131        132/129          -2
JPM 24      118/115        117/114          -1
GE  24        89/86          88/85            -1
GS  24      140/137        138/135          -2
MS  24      140/137        138/135          -2
IG23        69¾/70¼      69/69½          -¾

Very Interesting Hilsenrath

January 8th, 2015 7:30 am

Via Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ:

Falling long-term interest rates pose a quandary for Federal Reserve officials.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have fallen for eight consecutive trading sessions, by a total of 0.31 percentage points to 1.95% Wednesday. The 10-year yield is now around levels that prevailed before the famed “taper tantrum” of the summer of 2013, when it was considering ending its bond-buying program known as quantitative easing.

If falling yields are a reflection of diminishing inflation prospects, as is typically the case, it ought to prompt the Fed to hold off on raising short-term interest rates in the months ahead. If, on the other hand, lower long-term rates are a reflection of investors pouring money into U.S. dollar assets, flows that could spark a U.S. asset price boom, it might prompt the Fed to push rates higher sooner or more aggressively than planned.

The latter interpretation is less conventional, but it is one that New York Fed President William Dudley made at length in a speech in December. He argued the Fed had the wrong reaction to lower long rates in the 2000s, a mistake that might have contributed to the housing boom that ended disastrously.

Here is a key passage:

During the 2004-07 period, the (Fed) tightened monetary policy nearly continuously, raising the federal funds rate from 1 percent to 5.25 percent in 17 steps. However, during this period, 10-year Treasury note yields did not rise much, credit spreads generally narrowed and U.S. equity price indices moved higher. Moreover, the availability of mortgage credit eased, rather than tightened. As a result, financial market conditions did not tighten. As a result, financial conditions remained quite loose, despite the large increase in the federal funds rate. With the benefit of hindsight, it seems that either monetary policy should have been tightened more aggressively or macroprudential measures should have been implemented in order to tighten credit conditions in the overheated housing sector.

Mr. Dudley’s conclusion was that the pace of the Fed’s short-term interest rate moves this time around ought to be dictated in part by whether the rest of the financial system is moving with or against the Fed’s intentions when it decides it ought to start restraining credit creation:

When lift-off occurs, the pace of monetary policy normalization will depend, in part, on how financial market conditions react to the initial and subsequent tightening moves. If the reaction is relatively large—think of the response of financial market conditions during the so-called “taper tantrum” during the spring and summer of 2013—then this would likely prompt a slower and more cautious approach. In contrast, if the reaction were relatively small or even in the wrong direction, with financial market conditions easing—think of the response of long-term bond yields and the equity market as the asset purchase program was gradually phased out over the past year—then this would imply a more aggressive approach.

The challenge for the Fed is that one can make any number of arguments about the cause of falling long-term rates today. Tumbling oil prices and slow growth overseas suggest there is downward pressure on global inflation which ought to give Fed officials pause about raising rates as planned in mid-2015. At the same time, a stronger dollar and rising – albeit volatile – stock prices suggest the U.S. is attracting foreign capital which could charge up U.S. financial conditions and prompt an early or more aggressive Fed move.

The Fed’s next policy meeting is three weeks away. It is clear officials will spend a considerable time debating the correct response to a perplexing lurch down in long-term rates.

-By Jon Hilsenrath

What to Watch Today

January 8th, 2015 6:56 am

Via the good folks at Bloomberg;

WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts, y/y, Dec. (prior -20.7%)
* 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Jan. 3, est. 290k (prior
298k)
* Continuing Claims, Dec. 27, est. 2.36m (prior 2.353m)
* Continuing Claims, Dec. 27, est. 2.36m (prior 2.353m)</li></ul>
* 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 4 (prior 42.7)
* 3:00pm: Consumer Credit, Nov., est. $15b (prior $13.226b)
Central Banks
* 7:00am: Bank of England seen keeping bank rate at 0.50%
* 12:00pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Madison, Wisc.
* 8:00pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis
Supply
* 11:00am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 3M, 6M, 3Y,
10Y, 30Y debt

FX

January 8th, 2015 6:25 am

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:

Dollar Shoots Higher

– The dollar is extending its gains with a combination deflation in the eurozone and the seemingly immunity of the US economy to the poor global developments
– For their part, the FOMC minutes confirmed our interpretation of the policy signals from the Fed’s leadership
– Better data helped the Australian dollar today, but it does not change the trend
– Mexico reports December CPI, expected to rise 4.11% y/y vs. 4.17% in November

Price action:  The dollar is mostly firmer on the day against the majors.  The euro is underperforming, falling to a new cycle low near $1.1765, while the pound is nearing but failed to break below the $1.50 level.  The yen is weaker as well, with the dollar rising to nearly ¥120.0.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars are outperforming, rising to $0.8100 and $0.7790, respectively.  EM currencies are mostly higher with the ruble rebounding, up nearly 2% against the dollar as oil prices stabilize.  The MSCI Asia Pacific index added 1.2%, with the Nikkei up 1.7% but the Shanghai Comp bucking the trend and falling 2.4%.  European stocks are up again with Euro Stoxx adding 1.5% near midday.  S&P futures are pointing to a higher open.

  • The combination of the outright deflation in the eurozone and the seemingly immunity of the US economy to the poor global developments has encouraged investors to extend the dollar’s gains.  The euro has pushed below $1.18.  Sterling neared $1.50.  And the dollar, which was at three week lows against the yen on Tuesday, near JPY118, is knocking on JPY120 again.  Meanwhile, yesterday’s recovery in the US equity market has helped lift global markets today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%, with only the Chinese markets not following suit.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 1.5% near midday.  US shares are trading broadly higher, pointing to around 0.4% opening gains in the S&P 500.  Benchmark bond yields are slightly higher, though Greek and Portuguese bonds yields have slipped lower.  Oil prices are steady.  
  • The dollar bullish divergence theme was underscored by the -0.2% y/y preliminary eurozone CPI reported yesterday and the steeper than expected 2.4% drop in German factory orders reported today.  The consensus had expected a 0.8% decline after the 2.5% rise in October (revised to 2.9% today).  At the same time, the US ADP data pointed to another good monthly national report due tomorrow.  The smaller than expected US November trade deficit also showed little sign that the dollar’s strength is biting.
  • For their part, the FOMC minutes confirmed our interpretation of the policy signals from the Fed’s leadership.  If the labor market continues to heal, as most signs suggest (which includes some preliminary upward pressure on labor costs and wages), then the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates in the middle of the year.  This will happen even if there is little if any progress on inflation from here.  Recall that the 2004 tightening cycle began with the core PCE deflator (which was not a target then) near current levels.  
  • At the same time, the market takes for granted that the ECB will announce a wider asset purchase plan.  It is now debating the “modalities.”  We have argued that the divergence with the euro area had been a key hurdle to such a program, but now that the German economy has lost its momentum, and is also on the verge of outright deflation, the opposition to a larger asset purchase program has softened.  That said, we expect a modest program of 500-600 bln euros, and for the national central banks to bear the risk by keeping the purchased bonds on their balance sheets, unlike the SMP bond buying program under Trichet.  We suspect that the national central banks will not buy instruments with negative yields.  This will force the core countries to buy longer maturities than the periphery, which also has implications for the relative risks and yield curves.  
  • In the US experience, the dollar would often sell off and Treasuries would rally on anticipation of QE, and then reverse when the announcement was made.  This could play out in Europe too.  
  • Turning to Australia, the much better-than-expected building approvals report helped the Australian dollar resist the US dollar’s strength today, but it does not change the trend.  Building approvals in November jumped 7.5% compared with a consensus forecast of a 3% decline.  It follows on the heels of better trade figures earlier in the week.  The Aussie recovered nearly a cent off yesterday’s low below $0.8035 but ran out of steam again as the 20-day average was approached near $0.8140.  
  • The politics that investors seem most interested in is the Greek election on January 25, three days after the ECB meeting.  However, there is another election that is receiving practically no attention, but could be very revealing.  The prefecture of Saga in Japan holds an election Sunday that could give insight into how much Prime Minister Abe is going to be able to enact his reforms.  We have argued that the main hurdle to real structural reforms is the LDP itself.  It is a coalition, like most major parties.  There are forces of order and forces of reform within the LDP.  Abe himself has a foot in both camps.  His appointments and policies reflect this.  
  • The election in Saga pits an agent of reform, Hiwatashi, the ex-major of Takeo (a city in Saga) against Yamaguchi, an ex-bureaucrat.  These are the two main candidates.  Hiwatashi is supported by the LDP in Tokyo (Abe).  However, some parts of the LDP are supporting Yamaguchi.  This seems especially true of the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA).  Hiwatashi enjoys a small lead according to the polls, though Yamaguchi appears to have narrowed the gap.  There appears to be greater misgivings of Abenomics in Japan than the super-majority that the LDP-led coalition secured again would suggest.  If Yamaguchi draws the protest vote and wins, it could stymie Abe’s third arrow, and invigorate the resistance to significant concessions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks.  That said, the election is just one confrontation between the agents of change and the agents of order in a larger struggle over Abenomics and the soul, if not the future of Japan.  It may not be the decisive battle, but it offers insight into the early days of Abenomics 2.0.  
  • Turkey November IP disappointed, falling -0.1% compared with expectations for an increase of 1.8%.  Inflation remains elevated, though it is falling thanks to lower oil prices.  The combination of lower CPI with weaker growth numbers will continue to fuel the sharp gains in Turkish bonds since the start of the year.  Five-year swaps, for example, have fallen about 75 bp to 7.75%, the lowest level since mind 2013 on expectations of forthcoming easing by the central bank.  We agree.  Not only will lower oil prices help inflation, but it will vastly improve the country’s external numbers, partially removing some of the risk of currency depreciation that has kept the central bank vigilant.
  • Mexico reports December CPI, expected to rise 4.11% y/y vs. 4.17% in November.  It then reports December consumer confidence and November IP on Friday.  Inflation is moving back toward the 2-4% target range, while real sector data have been firming.  These trends argue for steady monetary policy by the central bank in 2015.  We see no change in rates this year.  Peso outperformance could continue near-term.  For USD/MXN, support seen near 14.50, resistance seen near 15.00.  

Secondary market Corporate Bond Trading

January 8th, 2015 6:14 am

Via Bloomberg:

IG CREDIT: Client Buying of GS, MS Led Volume; 4 Set to Price
2015-01-08 10:59:36.872 GMT

By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — The final Trace count for secondary trading
was $16.7b vs $16.5b Tuesday.
* 144a trading added $2.9b of IG volume vs $2.6b
* Most active issues longer than 2 years
* GS 4.00% 2024 was the day’s most active issue with
client flows accounting for 100% of volume with just 2-
large tickets, a buy and a sell
* MS 3.875% 2024 was next with client flows taking 96% of
volume
* GS 4.80% 2044 was 3rd with client trades accounting for
100% of volume
* GS 4.80% 2044 was 3rd with client trades accounting for
100% of volume</li></ul>
* MDT 2.50% 2020 was most active 144a issue; client flows took
77% of the volume; MDT 2025, 2045 also among top-5
* BofAML IG Master Index at +149 vs +148; +151, the wide for
2014 was seen Dec 16; +106, the low for 2014 and the
tightest spread since July 2007 was seen June 24
* Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research IG Index at
+178 vs +175 and +177, the wide for 2014 seen Dec 16; +140,
a 2014 low and new post-crisis low was seen July 30
* Click here for S&P spread history in a 10-year lookback
* Markit CDX.IG.22 5Y Index at 70 vs 71.7; 76.1, the wide for
2014 was seen Dec 16; 55 was seen July 3, the low for 2014
and the lowest level since Oct 2007
* December’s IG issuance was $60.5b; 2014’s was $1.395t
* $18.6b priced Wednesday vs $13b Tuesday
* 4 foreign names set to price today, includes KBN; pipeline
of expected domestic, SSA January issuers; M&A-related deals
for 2015
* 2015 has expected multibillion refis
* Serial January issuers:
* GE Cap’s history as serial January issuer held
* JPM a likely January issuer, based on historical record
* BAC historically issues in January
* GS often issues in January, has large maturities in 2015
* ABIBB, BRK have history of January issuance
* ABIBB, BRK have history of January issuance</li></ul>
* Serial SSA January issuers added to pipeline