Archive for July, 2015
Friday, July 31st, 2015
Via Barron's:
3-Year High in Junk Bond Defaults in Second Quarter
By Amey Stone
The number of defaults among companies rated below investment grade jumped to 15 in the second quarter, a three-year high, according to Moody’s Investors Service. There were just 10 in the first quarter of 2015 as well as in ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Energy Defaults Weigh on Junk
Friday, July 31st, 2015
The FT has an excellent piece on leverage in the equity market. The author note that at current levels it approaches levels attained in 2000 and 2007 before markets began to decline. If you are sanguine on stocks this article should make you cautious.
Via the FT:
The Chinese stock markets have ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Equity Market Leverage
Friday, July 31st, 2015
Via Merrill Lynch Research:
Full on bonds. Not surprisingly after another record breaking month in the primary market (July=$129bn) the high grade bond market feels satiated with paper. We see this as secondary credit spreads continue to widen, new issue concessions increase, although there was some month-end buying in July it ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Eclectic Stuff
Friday, July 31st, 2015
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
AUSTRALIA: Manufacturing PMI index for July, following sub-50 readings in 17 of the last 20 months, with a particularly low June reading at 44.2.
CHINA: The “official” Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs will be released FRIDAY EVENING at 9:00pm , with the BBerg consensus at 50.1 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Weekend Data Preview
Friday, July 31st, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
Fed’s Bullard: ‘We Are in Good Shape’ to Raise Rates in Sept:WSJ
2015-07-31 18:19:32.99 GMT
By Libby Sallaberry McGowan
(Bloomberg) -- Fed’s Bullard tells Wall Street Journal in
interview GDP data supports case to boost rates soon, cleared
away worries over outlook.
* “The outlook remains fairly good for the economy”
* Fed policy outlook remains ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bullard OK With September Rate Hike
Friday, July 31st, 2015
Via Steve Liddy and I apologize for the charts being difficult to read:
I’ve pointed this chart out the last couple of months. Month end has provided a great opportunity to get short. Over the previous 6 month ends, LB yields have risen an average of 36+bp, before seeing any significant ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Friday, July 31st, 2015
This is a second piece from TDSecurities by Millan Mulraine. He conversed with the BLS and he thinks the softness is a result of one off type items and he suggests fading the strength derived from the data surprise.
Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:
In addition to the earlier note sent out ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Deeper Dive into the ECI
Friday, July 31st, 2015
This one is by Eric Green at TDSecurities. He is also a bit flummoxed but does not think that this will dissuade the FOMC from hiking rates in September.
Via Eric Green at TDSecurities:
The Q2 ECI was dismal. Total compensation rose only 0.2%, well below the expected gain of 0.6%, and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Another Take on ECI
Friday, July 31st, 2015
Stephen Stanley is Biblical in his disbelief of the BLS data. He writes an interesting piece on the ECI report this morning.
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The ECI was stunningly soft in Q2, rising by only 0.2%, the lowest reading in the roughly 20-year history of the series. Wages ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Regarding the Soft ECI
Friday, July 31st, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
* 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, 2Q, est. 0.6% (prior
0.7%)
* 9:00am: ISM Milwaukee, July, est. 50 (prior 46.55)
* 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, July, est. 50.8
(prior 49.4)
* 10:00am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, July F, est. 94 (prior
93.3)
* U. of Mich. Current Conditions, July ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch Today