Archive for October, 2015

More FX

Thursday, October 29th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Mixed in the Wake of FOMC - The Federal Reserve gave the clearest signal to date that it is prepared to hike rates at its last meeting of the year on December 16 - The divergence theme that we emphasize has driven the US-German 2-year ...

Secondary Market Corporate Bond Trading

Thursday, October 29th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: =============================================================================   IG CREDIT: Best Wednesday Moving Average Since April 2015-10-29 09:42:09.576 GMTBy Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $18.1b vs $18.2b Tuesday, $17.4b the previous Wednesday. 10-DMA $16.4b; 10-Wednesday moving avg $16.7b, highest since $17.3b, April 8.* 144a trading added $2.9b of IG volume vs $2.8b Tuesday, $3b last ...

Early FX

Thursday, October 29th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hef7b79a,14918f1f,14918f20&p1=136122&p2=4f93765317ac1dd020bb0e1889d0976c> ..then you'll be a Fed Governor, my son?? Not sure I can take Kipling to the FOMC but there are so many 'If's' im fed policy I'm stuck with then image. The FOMC left the door ajar. IF markets don't tighten financial conditions for them. IF ...

Hilsenrath Article

Thursday, October 29th, 2015

Via Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: By JON HILSENRATH Updated Oct. 28, 2015 11:35 p.m. ET 117 COMMENTS Federal Reserve officials explicitly said they might raise short-term interest rates in December, pushing back against investors who have bet that the central bank wouldn’t move this year. The message appeared to have the desired effect. Before the ...

New Home Sales

Monday, October 26th, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: After housing starts and existing home sales exceeded expectations in September, new home sales were a washout.  New home sales fell by a whopping 11.5% to 468K last month, the worst result of the year so far.  Sales were down in all four regions ...

New Issue Calendar

Monday, October 26th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-10-26 14:01:24.779 GMT By Allan Lopez (Bloomberg) -- List of new issues expected to price today: * Union Pacific $1.1b (will not grow) A3/A * 2025 tap, 30Y, 50Y * IPT: 2025 tap +110/115, 30Y +140/145, 50Y +195 area * Books: Barclays, BofAML, C, ...

More FX

Monday, October 26th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Policy not Data to Drive the Dollar - The European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China reanimated the divergence theme just when many observers had all but given up on it - The Sweden's Riksbank is the most likely to ease further this week; ...

Who are the Buyers of US Treasuries

Monday, October 26th, 2015

Via the FT: Why the shift in Treasury bond ownership matters New buyers are more price sensitive so demand could be more volatile October 22, 2015 by: Jamie Chisholm Who is buying US government bonds and what are the market implications, ask strategists at TD Securities. Data show China has sold $200bn of Treasuries so far ...

FOMC Between Rock and Hard Place

Monday, October 26th, 2015

Justin Lanhart of the WSJ writes on the difficult task which confronts the FOMC if it wishes to hike rates while most of the rest of the world is lowering rates or engaging in unconventional monetary policy. Via the WSJ: By Justin Lahart Updated Oct. 25, 2015 12:41 p.m. ET The Federal Reserve is ...

More FX

Monday, October 26th, 2015

I always post the FX work of Mark Chandler from Brown Brothers Harriman. This morning there is a note in the inbox from one of his London based colleagues, Ilan Solot, who comments cogently on Argentina, Poland and BOJ policy: Three Thoughts From London -  Uncertainty in Argentina, Victory in Poland; ...