Record Profits for the Fed

January 9th, 2015 3:12 pm

There is something bizarre about the Fed buying bonds, building a Brobdingnagian sized portfolio, and then turning the profits over to the Treasury. It is a modern day version of the medieval discussion regarding how many angels are capable of sitting on the head of a pin. If we use the logic that this is reducing expenses for the Treasury them maybe the Federal Reserve should purchase every bond that the Treasury sells. Anyway , the WSJ reports that the central bank handed the Treasury a check for $98 billion.

Via the WSJ:

The Federal Reserve sent a record $98.7 billion in profits to the Treasury Department in 2014, largely reflecting higher interest earnings on its big bond holdings.

The central bank’s portfolio of securities, property and other assets has expanded to more than $4.5 trillion since the financial crisis from less than $1 trillion before, driven primarily by three rounds of bond purchases aimed at stabilizing the financial system and spurring stronger economic growth.

The Fed earns interest on the bonds as well as income from other sources. Under law, it uses its revenue to cover operating expenses and sends much of the rest to the Treasury’s general fund, where the money is used to pay government bills.

The central bank’s remittance to the Treasury last year was the biggest since 2012, when it handed over $88.4 billion. Before the crisis, the Fed turned over $21.5 billion in 2005, and $34.6 billion in 2006. The figures released Friday are preliminary and subject to revision.

The Fed said it earned $115.9 billion in interest income from bonds in 2014. The central bank in October ended its third round of bond buying, which was aimed at lowering long-term interest rates to encourage household and business borrowing.

The cost of the Fed’s 12 regional bank operations was $3.6 billion last year. Costs related to the central bank’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau totaled $563 million.

The Fed also spent $6.9 billion last year to operate facilities that pay interest on the money banks park at the central bank, called reserves, and on term deposits it accepts from financial firms.

Although the central bank is likely to remain a strong contributor to the Treasury for a while, Fed profits will likely shrink as it raises short-term interest rates. That will require the Fed to pay higher interest rates on reserves and term deposits. And further down the road, Fed officials envision allowing the portfolio to shrink gradually as the bonds mature, which will reduce interest income.

Some officials worry this process could push Fed earnings into the red. While it wouldn’t present an operational problem for the central bank, it could draw political fire from lawmakers unhappy with a government institution losing money to make payments to big banks, many of them foreign.

 

Inflation Expectations on Downslope

January 9th, 2015 2:36 pm

Via the WSJ:

Closely Watched Inflation Gauge Falls to Lowest Level in 14 Years
Five-Year Forward Five-Year Break-Even Rate Tumbles to 1.8648%
By MIN ZENG
Jan. 9, 2015 12:52 p.m. ET
1 COMMENTS
An inflation gauge closely watched by Federal Reserve officials has fallen to the lowest level in more than 14 years, extending a decline that investors and analysts say could complicate the central bank’s plan to raise interest rates this year.

The five-year forward five-year break-even rate, which measures annual inflation currently expected by investors between 2020 and 2025, tumbled to 1.8648% on Tuesday.

That is the lowest level since Dec. 22, 2000, said Jonathan Rick, interest rate derivatives strategist at Crédit Agricole in New York, and below the 2% inflation that Fed officials have set as the ideal level for annual price increases.

The decline is noteworthy because many analysts and traders believe that officials will be loath to raise interest rates, tightening financial conditions, when the economy is showing signs of softness.

Expectations that the Fed will in 2015 raise U.S. short-term rates for the first time since 2006 have driven a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar, as investors around the globe purchase U.S. assets in expectations that returns here will rise along with interest rates.

But Friday’s U.S. jobs report showed wages declined last month, even as the economy added more jobs than economists expected. The report underscored concerns about amid gathering deflationary forces around the globe. Analysts and money managers say tame wages and falling inflation expectations may bolster the case for patience.

“The Fed wants to see both stronger jobs growth and higher inflation,’’ said James DeMasi, chief fixed-income strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore.

U.S. crude oil continued its monthslong selloff Friday. A report earlier this week showed the eurozone’s annual inflation rate last month dropped below zero for the first time since 2009. Stocks tumbled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.2% at midday, and safe-haven U.S. government bonds rallied, sending the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down to 1.96%.

Many Fed officials have played down the effect of falling oil prices on inflation, seeing it as a transitory factor. In the policy meeting in December, officials still believe that the U.S. inflation rate will rise toward the Fed’s 2% objective in the coming years, a level officials deem as appropriate for price stability in the economy.

But Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans, who votes on the Fed’s policy-setting panel this year, said this week that the central bank may wait until 2016 to raise rates amid global uncertainty and low inflation.

“I think it will be a major policy mistake for the Fed to raise interest rates with crude oil falling, inflation expectations falling and no wage inflation in the U.S.,’’ said Jonathan Lewis, chief investment officer at Samson Capital Advisors LLC, which has $7.4 billion assets under management.

Ted Ake, manager of fixed income at Willingdon Wealth Management which has $280 million assets under management, said despite the “green shoots” in the U.S. economy, the growth momentum “could be easily choked off in a weak global growth environment.”

“It wouldn’t surprise me if the Fed holds off until 2016,’’ Mr. Ake said.

Fed-funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on central bank policy, showed investors and traders see a 17% likelihood of a rate increase at the June 2015 meeting, compared with 20% right before Friday’s jobs report, according to data from the CME. The odds were 3.9% a month ago.

Investors see a 56% chance of a rate increase by September and an 84% chance by December.

Slowing inflation has been a key driver sending global investors piling into major government bonds over the past year. Lower inflation preserves the value of fixed income assets and the buying binge has sent bond yields tumbling broadly.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is down from 2.173% at the end of 2014 and 3.03% at the end of 2013. Bond prices rise when their yields fall.

The yield on the 10-year German government bond was 0.488% Friday, near the record closing low of 0.46% set on Tuesday, according to Tradeweb. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond was 0.285%, a record closing low.

Tom di Galoma, head of rates and credit trading in New York at ED & F Man Capital Markets, expects bond yields to fall further in coming months as he expects crude oil to slide toward $40 a barrel from a recent $48 and that the Fed will defer any rate rise until early 2016.

“The jury is still out on how low yields can go with demand remaining strong globally,’’ said Mr. di Galoma.

Careening Toward Parity

January 9th, 2015 9:38 am

From GS: NEW EURUSD FORECAST:
We are revising down our forecast further today, to 1.14, 1.11 and 1.08 in 3, 6
and 12 months (from 1.23, 1.20 and 1.15 before).
We are also revising down our longer-term forecasts, bringing the end-2016
forecast to 1.00 (from 1.05) and that for end-2017 to 0.90 (from 1.00).

Labor Data

January 9th, 2015 9:29 am

Via Eric Green at TDSecurities:

At face value the December jobs report looks great with jobs rising more than expected and the unemployment rate falling to a fresh low of the cycle. Despite this, however, we would grade this report no better than a B owing to ongoing disappoint in both labor force growth and earnings, two key ingredients needed to sustain a long and prosperous recovery. Key positive points:
First, jobs rose 252k and on top of net revisions of +50k we have 62k more jobs at 8:30AM than we expected (consensus at 240k). These are very strong numbers reinforced by the mix showing it was all full time employment while part time unemployed for economic reasons fell by 61k. Household jobs (household survey) was up 111k after a weak 71k in November and 653k in October. Over the quarter job growth on the establishment survey was a massive 289k and 278k on the household survey. These are extremely strong numbers, and the job gains have been broad based.
Second, the unemployment rate fell more than expected from 5.8% to 5.6% to a fresh low of the cycle, while underemployment from 11.4% to 11.2%, also a fresh low of the cycle.
Third, unemployment duration continued to fall, aggregate hours rose at a 3.5% rate on the quarter (creates upside risk to our 2.7% GDP forecast), and the workweek held at the highs of the cycle at 34.6.
A casual look at these numbers reinforces what has been a very strong jobs market over the past year, the strongest for job creation in 15 years. We are left wanting, however, because an extra 62k jobs in an economy employing 140M does not really change what we already knew going into this report. We needed to see affirmation that wage inflation was indeed beginning to pick up and the recent strength in the labor force would be sustained. On both counts this was a bad print:
First, wages were expected to rise by 0.2% after a strong gain of 0.4% the prior month. Instead they fell by 0.2% and the November print was revised down to 0.2% gain, the effect of which was to push wag growth down to a 1.7% rate y/y. The market expected a new high at 2.3% y/y. Part of this weakness, at least at the margin, was due to a 1.0%m decline in mining wages (fallout from the energy collapse), but this is only at the margin. Wage growth on the jobs survey remains frustratingly weak. Judging by the sectoral breakdown showing most sectors and industries with lower wage growth (lower not just slower), the December report looks to be the weakest we have seen.
Second, the labor force was up on the quarter by 284k, but fell by 273k in December. That drove the unemployment rate lower and of course the participation rate which revisited the low of the cycle at 62.7%.
Implications for Fed
This report is emblematic of why the unemployment rate never was a useful element of forward guidance. At 5.6% it is smack in the middle of most estimates for NAIRU. The problem is that nobody knows what the NAIRU rate truly is, but in the absence of a smoking gun (i.e. higher wage inflation), we know we are not yet there. Judging by state level data, those that have unemployment rates below 5.0% with little obvious wage pressures, one might suspect it is lower than presumed. The wage data in this release would support that suspicion.
D

 

Corporate Bond Spreads

January 9th, 2015 9:24 am

C  24      131/128        133/130          +2
WFC 24      107/104        108/105          +1
BAC 24      131/128        133/130          +2
JPM 24      118/115        120/117          +2
GE  24        88/85          89/86            +1
GS  24      138/135        139/136          +1
MS  24      138/135        139/136          +1
IG23        68¼/68¾      68¾/69¼        +½

These were post labor levels.

Belly on Fire

January 9th, 2015 9:17 am

The Treasury curve has steepened significantly in the moments following the release of the monthly labor report as investors take solace in the decline in average hourly earnings and in a decline in the participation. I suppose that each of those items might extend the limits of FOMC “patience” before  that august assemblage chooses to hike rates.

So I see 5s 10s at 54.5 versus 518 at 815AM. Similarly, 5s 30s has moved to 114.7 from 110.1 and 10s 30s has jumped to 60.2 from  58.3.

The most interesting aspect of the movement along the yield curve is in the belly butterflys which I follow. On January 6 at about 530AM I marked 2s 5s 10s at 41 basis points. I marked 5s 10s 30s at -10.5. I just marked those spreads about 20 minutes ago and 2s 5s 10s is now 33 basis points and 5s 10s 30s is -6. So the one is richer by 8 basis points and the other is cheaper by 4 basis points.

Dealers report significant unwinds of trades in which clients have been long bond futures and short the 5 year point. That sell off in the bond future has weighed on the 10 year sector and that unwind has taken place since Tuesday. Dealers suspect that it is a large client unwinding a profitable position. Why would someone unwind? The Long Bond did reach 2.50 percent and at that level some might conclude that it was price as if it were a dotcom stock in 1999. In addition there is supply next week from the Treasury as there was no set up for that trade so some of this is dealers shooting the taxpayer in the big toe.

In terms of client flow post 830AM I have heard of real money buyers of off the run 5 year paper and central bank buyers of the 10 year sector.

What to Watch for Today

January 9th, 2015 7:15 am

Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec., est. 240k (prior
321k)
* Change in Private Payrolls, Dec., est. 225k (prior 314k)
* Change in Manufact. Payrolls, Dec, est. 15k (prior 28k)
* Unemployment Rate, Dec., est. 5.7% (prior 5.8%)
* Average Hourly Earnings, m/m, Dec., est. 0.2% (prior
0.4%)
* Average Hourly Earnings, y/y, Dec., est. 2.2% (prior
2.1%)
* Average Weekly Hours All Employees, Dec., est. 34.6
(prior 34.6)
* Underemployment Rate, Dec. (prior 11.4%)
* Change in Household Employment, Dec. (prior 4k)
* Labor Force Participation Rate, Dec. (prior 62.8%)
* Labor Force Participation Rate, Dec. (prior 62.8%)</li></ul>
* 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories, m/m, Nov., est. 0.3% (prior
0.4%)
* Wholesale Sales m/m, Nov., est. 0% (prior 0.2%)
* Wholesale Sales m/m, Nov., est. 0% (prior 0.2%)</li></ul>
Central Banks
* 8:40am: Fed’s Evans on CNBC
* 1:20pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Richmond, Va.

Dealer Positions

January 9th, 2015 6:48 am

Via Bloomberg:

IG CREDIT: Dealer Positions Lowest Level in 16 Months
2015-01-09 11:36:27.237 GMT

By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — Dealer positions in corporate bonds fell
$5.2b to $23.1b as of Dec 31. $45.9b, seen March 5, 2014 was the
high for the series Fed began April 2013; $23b low was in Aug
2013.
* Investment grade positions:
* Short issues fell $88m to $3.5b; $4.7b, seen Nov 19, was
the high for 2014 and for the series that began in April
2013; $1.2b low Aug 2013
* Positions longer than 13 months fell $608m to $9.2b;
$3.3b, the low was seen Dec 3, 2014; $16.3b, the high,
was seen Mar 12, 2014
* Positions longer than 13 months fell $608m to $9.2b;
$3.3b, the low was seen Dec 3, 2014; $16.3b, the high,
was seen Mar 12, 2014</li></ul>
* Commercial paper positions at a new series low of $4.7b,
down $4.3b (previous low $7.2b, 1/1/14); $19.9b, the series
high, seen Mar 5, 2014
* High yield positions fell $204m to $5.7b; $1.1b, a series
low was seen Oct 22, 2014; high of $8.4b was seen June 2013
* Total dealer positions in all Treasuries fell $27.8b to
$7.8b, the lowest level since 2011; in a look-back to Jan
2007 the high was $146b in Oct 2013, -$194b was seen July
2007

FX

January 9th, 2015 6:42 am

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:

Dollar Soft Ahead of US Jobs Data

– The US dollar is slightly softer amid last minute position adjustments ahead of the US jobs data
– A disappointing report could prompt some profit-taking on long dollar positions as it plays into the hands of those who think that the Fed will not raise rates
– German and French industrial output figures disappointed
– Mexico’s central bank takes on a more hawkish tone
– Brazil December IPCA inflation came in close to consensus, rising 6.41% y/y vs. 6.56% in November

Price action:  The dollar is softer on the day ahead of the US jobs data. The euro and pound are marginally stronger at $1.1810 and $1.5140, respectively. The dollar is outperforming especially against the Scandies at NOK 7.6670 and SEK 8.0420, but falling against the yen at around ¥119.30.  On the EM side, the ruble is giving up some of yesterday’s gains, and is heading for its weakest weekly close, near 61 vs. the dollar.   HUF and PLN are also underperforming, while KRW and INR are outperforming. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was up 0.8%, while MSCI is up for the third straight day, rising 0.25%.  Euro Stoxx 600 is down about 0.4% near midday, with the IBEX leading the way lower, -2.6%.  S&P futures are pointing to a lower open.

  • The US dollar is slightly softer amid last minute position adjustments ahead of the US jobs data.  After the outsized 321k increase in nonfarm payrolls in November, a more trend-like report is expected today.  The three-month average of 278k was skewed by the November report.  The consensus calls for a 240k increase, which is near the pre-November averages.  The details of the report, especially average hourly earnings, are important as well, in light of the FOMC minutes.  Provided that labor market continued to improve, a rate hike could still be delivered near mid-year, even if inflation were no closer to the Fed’s 2% target.  
  • If the consensus is wrong, we suspect it would be that the report is weaker than expected.  The December report has disappointed more often than not.  The seasonal adjustment is a larger hurdle.  The ADP estimate also has a rougher time in anticipating the national figure in December.  Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in November, and it will be tough to match that.  The average work week is expected to be unchanged at 34.6 hours.  
  • A disappointing report could prompt some profit-taking on long dollar positions as it plays into the hands of those who think that the Fed will not raise rates.  This could lift the euro toward $1.1875-$1.1900 and sterling toward $1.5150-$1.5200.  
  • Even though we read the FOMC minutes to support our narrative, many have given the recent comments by the dovish wing, like Evans and Kocherlakota greater weight.  However, ahead of the ECB meeting on January 22, we expect bounces in the euro will be sold.  At the same time, although our sources tell us it is controversial within the BOJ, many investors expect another increase in QQE as the Bank of Japan’s inflation target remains elusive.  The UK reports CPI next week, and a decline to 0.7% from 1.0% is expected.  It will likely encourage investors to push further out the first BOE hike.  
  • Sterling is edging out the yen today as the stronger currency.  It was helped by news of a smaller than expected trade deficit and a larger than expected increase in manufacturing output.  The November trade deficit came in at GBP1.4 bln against a consensus of GBP2.0 bln.  Manufacturing output rose by 0.7%, the strongest in seven months, and twice what the market expected.  Overall industrial output slipped by 0.1% (vs. consensus of +0.2%).  The main culprit was a 5.5% decline in oil and gas extraction, owing to reported maintenance in some North Sea fields.  At this point, we are unsure if such maintenance was related or encouraged by the sharp decline in prices.  
  • German and French industrial output figures disappointed.  German industrial output was expected to rise 0.2%.  Instead in fell 0.1%.  The French disappointment was greater.  It was expected to rise 0.3% after the 0.7% decline in October, but instead it fell by 0.3%.  This warns of downside risk to next week regional figure, where the consensus expects a 0.3% increase.  
  • While Asian shares followed the US equity advance (MSCI Asia Pacific was up 0.7%), Europe has not been able to match suit.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.4% near midday and is being weighed down by financials.  There are two considerations here.  First, the ECB is reportedly introducing new minimum capital ratios for individual banks.  Details are sketchy, and there has been no official confirmation, but Italian banks in particular are thought to be required to boost capital.  The second story is Santander’s 7.5 bln euro share sale, diluting existing shareholders and sending its shares broadly lower.  
  • Australia’s string of favorable news ended today.  Recall earlier this week it reported a smaller than expected trade deficit and an unexpectedly strong increase in building approvals.  Today’s report on November retail sales disappointed, rising 0.1% instead of 0.2% consensus.  The corrective pressure on the US dollar has seen the Aussie continue to flirt with its 20-day moving average.  A break above $0.8150 could spur a move to $0.8200.  
  • China reported its inflation figures earlier today.  The drop in commodity prices accelerated the decline in China’s producer prices, which have been falling for nearly three years.  Today’s December report showed a 3.3% year-over-year decline, after a-2.7% pace in November.  Consumer prices ticked higher to 1.5% from 1.4% in November.  This was the result of higher food prices (2.9% year-over-year form 2.3%).  Disinflation in non-food prices continues to be felt.  They rose 0.8%, down from 1.0% in November.  Officials announced intentions to expedite some infrastructure spending, but many continue to look for more monetary action by the PBOC.  
  • Mexico’s central bank took on a more hawkish tone. After some dovish comments on Thursday, Governor Carstens followed up yesterday by saying there’s a “high probability” that it will need to raise borrowing costs this year given the likelihood of tightening by the Fed.  “With the imminence of an increase in interest rates in the U.S., there’s a high probability that interest rates in Mexico will need to increase this year.”  This is a noteworthy shift given Banxico’s dovish take on the output gap and inflation, and raises the odds of a rate hike this year.  Separately, reports suggest that some 10,000 people working at Mexican oil service companies were laid off this week.  More job losses are expected.  Later today, Mexico reports December consumer confidence and November IP.  Consensus is 94.0 and 2.1% y/y, respectively.  For USD/MXN, support seen near 14.50, resistance seen near 15.00.
  • Brazil December IPCA inflation came in close to consensus, rising 6.41% y/y vs. 6.56% in November.  Auto data for December was awful.  Vehicle output -11.8% y/y, vehicle exports -45.2% y/y.  Sales were the only bright spot, up 4.6% y/y (first y/y gain since February 2014).  The auto output data point to another weak IP number for December, to follow up the weak November reading seen Thursday.  Given the combination of high inflation, weak growth, and twin deficits, we think USD/BRL will have trouble staying below 2.70 for very long.  Support seen near 2.65 and then 2.60, resistance seen near 2.70 and then 2.75.

Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

January 9th, 2015 6:17 am

Via Bloomberg;

IG CREDIT: Highest Volume Since Dec. 2; Issuance Over $40b in Wk
2015-01-09 10:53:06.563 GMT

By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — The final Trace count for secondary trading
was $18b, the highest since $18.1b Dec. 2, vs $16.7b Wednesday;
2014 high was $19.5b, Jan. 15.
* 144a trading added $2.4b of IG volume vs $2.9b
* Most active issues longer than 2 years
* PETBRA 6.25% 2024 was the day’s most active issue with
2-way client flows accounting for 72% of volume
* ESV 4.50% 2024 was next with client flows taking 98% of
volume
* ESV 4.50% 2024 was next with client flows taking 98% of
volume</li></ul>
* MDT 4.625% 2045 was most active 144a issue; client flows
took 82% of the volume
* BofAML IG Master Index at +147 vs +149; +151, the wide for
2014 was seen Dec 16; +106, the low for 2014 and the
tightest spread since July 2007 was seen June 24
* Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research IG Index at
+175 vs +178; +177, the wide for 2014 seen Dec 16; +140, a
2014 low and new post-crisis low was seen July 30, 2014
* Click here for S&P spread history in a 10-year lookback
* Markit CDX.IG.22 5Y Index at 68.5 vs 70; 76.1, the wide for
2014 was seen Dec 16; 55 was seen July 3, the low for 2014
and the lowest level since Oct 2007
* December’s IG issuance was $60.5b; 2014’s was $1.395t
* $10.6b priced Thursday; week’s IG issuance $42.2b
* Pipeline of expected domestic, SSA January issuers; M&A-
related deals for 2015
* Serial January issuers:
* GE Cap’s history as serial January issuer held
* JPM a likely January issuer, based on historical record
* BAC historically issues in January
* GS often issues in January, has large maturities in 2015
* ABIBB, BRK have history of January issuance
* ABIBB, BRK have history of January issuance</li></ul>
* Serial SSA January issuers added to pipeline