Archive for May, 2015

Bond Trading Slides and Derivative Trading Rises

Sunday, May 31st, 2015

This is a Bloomberg story on declining liquidity in the cash market. The key line in the story states that since October 2013 (I retired September 30 2013 so maybe there is some causality!) dealer inventories have been slashed 84 percent. Via Bloomberg: As Wall Street retreats from its traditional role as ...

Doom and Gloom

Sunday, May 31st, 2015

Merrill Lynch Research looking for the trifecta of better data and higher rates and wider spreads in June. Via Merrill Lynch Research: June Gloom. The combination of data inspired rate hiking risks, heavy supply volumes, elevated dealer inventories and lack of retail inflows means that we are set up for more indigestion ...

Fischer on the Rise

Sunday, May 31st, 2015

My friend and former colleague  Steve Liddy sent me this article which chronicles the increasing influence of the Vice Chairman at the Fed. Via Bloomberg: BFW 06/01 00:23 The Fed Whisperer, Misunderstood by Critics, Gains Sway on Board The Fed Whisperer, Misunderstood by Critics, Gains Sway on Board 2015-05-31 23:05:09.433 GMTBy Rich Miller (Bloomberg) --To ...

Theater of the Absurd

Sunday, May 31st, 2015

Via the FT: Tsipras accuses bailout monitors of making ‘absurd’ demands Peter Spiegel in Brussels Greece’s chances of striking a deal to access a much-needed €7.2bn in rescue aid looked even bleaker on Sunday after Alexis Tsipras, prime minister, accused bailout monitors of making “absurd” demands and seeking to impose “harsh punishment” on ...

The Mighty Greenback and the Fed Model

Sunday, May 31st, 2015

Via the WSJ: DJ For Fed, Dollar's Strength Complicates Rate-Hike Calculus By Josh Zumbrun Many Federal Reserve officials entered 2015 thinking they likely would start raising short-term interest rates by midyear. That idea got put on ice after a winter economic slowdown, partly attributed to the dollar's rapid rise in previous months. While the ...

Weekend Data Preview

Friday, May 29th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: The government’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufactruign PMIs for May will be released, with the BBerg consensus expecting the Manufacturing PMI to inch up to 50.3 from 50.1 in April; the consensus expects the final HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI to be revised slightly higher to 49.2 ...

Chicago PMI

Friday, May 29th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The disappointing performance in the Chicago PMI report has injected some concern that the US economic recovery may still be struggling to move beyond the Q1 soft-patch, and the weak tone suggests the the drag on growth may have extended beyond the temporary impact from the ...

Corporate Calendar: Light Today

Friday, May 29th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-05-29 14:00:00.849 GMT By Allan Lopez (Bloomberg) -- Just 1 new issue expected to price today: * Bank of America NA $benchmark A1/A * * 2Y FRN, 3Y; 3(a)(2) * Denoms: $250k x $1k * IPT 2Y FRN 3mL +50, 3Y +90 (both area) * Books: ...

GDP

Friday, May 29th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The second estimate of US Q1 GDP performance offered an unflattering view on economic growth performance earlier this year, with the economy contracting at a 0.7% q/q pace compared to the earlier +0.2% q/q estimate. This, however, was a slightly slower pace of contraction than the ...

Secondary market Trading in Corporate Bonds Yesterday

Friday, May 29th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Volume Lower, Spreads Wider; Pipeline Grows Further 2015-05-29 10:04:05.433 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $14.9b vs $17.8b Wednesday, $15.5b last Thursday. 10- DMA $13.8b. * 144a trading added $2.5b of IG volume vs $2.8b on Wednesday, $2.2b last Thursday * UBS 2.35% 2020 topped the ...