Archive for December, 2015

Credit Pipeline

Wednesday, December 30th, 2015

My friend and former colleague Steve Liddy forwarded this Bloomberg story which paints a landscape of active issuance in January by corporations. Via Bloomberg: (Bloomberg) -- Most recent updates, includes serial January issuers: There are 30 issuers that have at least $1b maturing in January In size order by amount issued (amount outstanding may ...

Research Roundup

Saturday, December 26th, 2015

Attached is a Bloomberg story which summarizes the outlook of several dealers regarding the outlook for interest rates in 2016. One dealer looked for lower rates with the remainder looking for higher rates. Via Bloomberg: ESEARCH ROUNDUP: 2016 UST Rates and Supply Outlook 2015-12-23 15:30:00.0 GMT By Monika Grabek (Bloomberg) -- (Adds DB, BNP, BofAML) * ...

Merry Christmas

Thursday, December 24th, 2015

I just want to take a moment to wish anyone who reads this blog a joyous Christmas. Enjoy the time with your family and take time to savor the real meaning of the holiday. Regular blogging will resume in earnest in January. Peace. JJJ

Sunday, December 20th, 2015

The WSJ has posted an insightful article on the failure of the collapse in oil prices (and gasoline in particular) to stoke consumer spending. Take a gander at this chart from the Saint Louis Fed as it shows the savings rate since oil began its descent last November. At that ...


Friday, December 18th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Mixed; BOJ Roils Markets - The Bank of Japan made five adjustments to Japan's unorthodox monetary policy; however, the expansion of the BOJ's balance sheet remains unchanged at JPY80 trillion a year - The onset of the holiday market conditions, especially following the FOMC meeting, ...

Worthwhile Link

Friday, December 18th, 2015

If you have an overwhelming urge to follow the FOMC operations which actually drain reserves from the system this is the link for you. In my day we referred to these operations as matched sales but in recent years the nomenclature changed and they are now reverse repos.

Fed Policy Then and Now

Friday, December 18th, 2015

Excellent article via the FT recounting the parallels between the financial landscape in the late 1990s and today and the differing FOMC response to each. If you enjoy financial history this is excellent read. Via the FT: 29 minutes ago by: Matthew Klein History never repeats, but there are some intriguing parallels between the ...

Ukraine Default

Friday, December 18th, 2015

Ukraine has defaulted on a $3 billion bond payment that it owes to Russia. I am hardly an expert on things Ukrainian but it seems that this is a much a political event as a credit event. Via Bloomberg: December 18, 2015 — 5:54 AM EST Ukraine defaulted on a $3 billion bond ...

Mechanics of Rate Hiking

Friday, December 18th, 2015

The FOMC is the architect which draws the plans and then the folks who sit at the Open Market Desk (as your humble correspondent once did) are the bricklayers who actually cobble together the transactions which guide the rate higher. According to Bloomberg the Open Market Desk drained $120 billion ...

Oil Prices: Lower for Longer

Friday, December 18th, 2015

OPEC has issued a report with its long term prognostication on the price of oil. It has oil at $70 in 2020 and it gets back to $95 in 2040. (I am not so interested in 2040 as the actuarial charts make it a good bet that I will be ...