Archive for December, 2014

China PMI Slips

Wednesday, December 31st, 2014

Via Bloomberg: China Factory Gauge Slips to Lowest Level Since June 2013 By Bloomberg News Dec 31, 2014 8:21 PM ET   A Chinese manufacturing gauge slipped to the lowest level in 18 months, adding pressure on policy makers to do more to support growth. The government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) fell to ...

Holiday Data Preview

Wednesday, December 31st, 2014

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Pierpont Trading Pierpont Sales Today at 10:11 AM CHINA: Tonight will bring the China Official PMI for both the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing sectors. The BBerg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to slip to 50.0 from 50.3 in November; the Non-Manufacturing PMI was 53.9 in ...

2015 Surprises

Wednesday, December 31st, 2014

This is from a piece by Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners. I do not know either Mr Kass or Seabreeze but this is a thought provoking essay. he lists fifteen surprises for 2015 and they have a bearish bent. I thought the most interesting prognostication is his insight that markets ...

Happy New Year

Wednesday, December 31st, 2014

I am likely to be off the world wide web for the remainder of today so I will take this opportunity to say Happy New Year to all who read this blog and to all who aid in its production by providing me with information. May 2015 bring some semblance ...

FX

Wednesday, December 31st, 2014

Via Brown Brothers Harriman: Currencies: The dollar is little changed on the last trading day of the year. The Norwegian krone is the main mover, with the dollar falling back to the NOK 7.40 resistance level, but not yet breaking below it. The euro is trading at $1.2150 and the pound ...

What to Watch for Today

Wednesday, December 31st, 2014

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 27, est. 290k (prior 280k) * Continuing Claims, Dec. 20, est. 2.368k (prior 2.403k) * Continuing Claims, Dec. 20, est. 2.368k (prior 2.403k)</li></ul> * 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, Dec., est. 60 (prior 60.8) * 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 28 * 10:00am: Pending ...

Measure of China Manufacturing Slips

Wednesday, December 31st, 2014

The final reading of the HSBC PMI for China increased from the initial reading of 49.5 to 49.6. At that level the index is at its lowest level in seven months and is in contractionary territory. Via Bloomberg: China December Factory Gauge Falls in Sign Growth Support Needed By Bloomberg News Dec 30, ...

Dollar Denominated Debt Damage

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

This WSJ article reports on the damage the surging greenback has caused emerging market countries who in 2014 have issued (according to the article) some $276 billion in US dollar debt. The article notes that Indonesia, Chile, Brazil and Mexico will take particularly large hits. I do not discount the fact ...

Overnight Preview

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: Private Sector Credit Growth data for November, with a steady acceleration over the last 12 months; the 5.7% YOY growth in October was the strongest since February 2009 CHINA: The final HSBC Manufacturing PMI will be released, with the 49.5 preliminary estimate the first ...

Peripherals

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

I began following 10 year Spain versus 10 year US on June 18 at which time Spain was trading at 2.755 and the 10 year Treasury changed hands at the bargain price of 2.632 which placed Spain 12.2 basis points cheap to US. In a great reversal 10 year Spain ...