Archive for November, 2016
Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
Via FRBAtlanta:
Latest forecast: 2.4 percent — November 30, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on November 30, down from 3.6 percent on November 23. The forecast of the combined contributions of real net exports and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Big Dip Down for Atlanta Fed 4th GDP Forecast
Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
As an aside in another life circa 1990 I worked with Tim Bitsberger. He traded Long Bonds when I traded short coupon Treasuries. I guess I should have kept his name active in the rolex. (No smart phone as I am a modern Luddite!)
Via TDSecurities:
PDF: https://www.tdsresearch.com/currency-rates/viewEmailFile.action?eKey=X2CIB9IV8QOADAY3R6SAQL84Z
§ The GSEs have been in ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on GSEs and Incoming Trump Administration
Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The Treasury market reacted this morning to a very cursory comment by Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin that the average maturity of the debt should be extended since interest rates are likely to be low for a few more years. This comment seems like ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Ross and Mnuchin Comments
Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
Via TDSecurites:
§ Given the 50bp move higher in rates over the last few weeks, we analyze MBS convexity risks. Even though the structure of the mortgage market has changed significantly from the pre-crisis period due to Fed ownership and GSE conservatorship, we think that there are still some holders of ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Convexity Crowd Crazed
Tuesday, November 29th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Dollar Comes Back Mostly Firmer, but Focus is Elsewhere
The dollar is firmer but confined to yesterday's ranges
The focus today is on OPEC, which is struggling to reach an agreement and South Korea, where the President is offering to resign to avoid impeachment
...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Tuesday, November 29th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: 3rd Highest Monday Volume on Record
2016-11-29 11:12:33.741 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $16.9b vs $1.6b Friday, $16.5b last Monday. It was the
3rd highest Monday session volume since record keeping began in
2005.
* 10-DMA $15.6b; 10-Monday moving avg $15b
* 144a trading added ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Corporate Bond Stuff
Tuesday, November 29th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Set to price today:
* BPCE SA (BPCEGP) A2/A, to price $benchmark 2-part deal, via
managers GS/HSBC/MS/Natix/RBC
* 5Y, IPT +115 area
* 10Y, IPT +140 area
* Rentenbank (RENTEN) Aaa/AAA, to price $benchmark Global 5Y,
via Barc/HSBC/RBC/Sco; guidance MS +32 area
* In the 2 weeks following Thanksgiving 2015, $65b was ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Credit Pipeline
Monday, November 28th, 2016
Via WSJ:
How to Kill the Volcker Rule? Don’t Enforce It
Big banks hoping a Trump administration will defang one of Dodd-Frank’s most-controversial pieces
News
By
Ryan Tracy and
John Carney
Nov. 28, 2016 5:30 a.m. ET
Big banks spent years railing against the so-called Volcker rule, which bars them from making wagers with ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Just Don’t Enforce It (and Best Acronym RENT-D)
Monday, November 28th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Whiff of Danger in Bank Stocks Returning $300 Billion in 25 Days
Lu Wang luwangnyc
November 28, 2016 — 5:00 AM EST
Group’s market value on course for record monthly increase
Little sign of fear in bank ETF’s options, short interest
Optimism is higher than ever on a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Cautious View on Bank Stocks
Monday, November 28th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Chiara Albanese chiaraalbanese
John Follain JohnFollain
November 28, 2016 — 12:00 AM EST
Investors reeling from democratic shocks in Britain and the U.S. are worried about Italy’s future in Europe’s monetary union. They’re concerned that a defeat for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in the Dec. 4 constitutional-reform ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Italian Referendum and the Euro