Archive for February, 2014

Passive Takeover of Crimea?

Friday, February 28th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: Creeping Russia Takeover in Crimea Seen More Likely Than Assault 2014-02-28 18:50:03.16 GMT (For more on the unrest in Ukraine, see EXT2.) By Leon Mangasarian Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A creeping Kremlin takeover of Crimea by ostensibly local ethnic Russian forces is more likely than a military assault on all or parts of Ukraine, U.S. ...

Geopolitics Dominates Trading

Friday, February 28th, 2014

The market has traded up into month end on month end buying and a sell off in the stock market precipitated by a melange of headlines from Ukraine one of which purports that there are 2000 Russian troops in Crimea. The yield curve flattening continues and 5s 30s is inside ...

On Reverse Repos and the Federal Funds Rate As Policy tools

Friday, February 28th, 2014

FT Alphaville has a very interesting article on the growth of the Fed's reverse repo facility and the demise and irrelevance of the federal funds rate and the fed funds market. It is a worthwhile read.  

Jefferson and Madison and Hamilton Break Bread

Friday, February 28th, 2014

I am a lover of all things Jefferson and just came across this blog post from Liberty Street Economics, the blog of the New York Federal Reserve. The post describes a dinner at 57 Maiden Lane when Thomas Jefferson was Secretary of State for George Washington. In attendance that evening ...

FX View From a London Trading Desk

Friday, February 28th, 2014

Some interesting thought from a London FX trading desk. The dealer did not wish attribution so I have edited slightly and hopefully it is now cloaked in anonymity. Watch out for the odd events this weekend! Especially in China… We have heard from others and agree with the idea that there is ...

Swaps

Friday, February 28th, 2014

Dealers report receivers in 3 years and forward starting 2 years. Hedge funds have been entering forward starting steepeners in 5s 30s and 10s 30s. One dealers attributes the 1.25 basis point widening of 30 year spread to these trades. Front end spreads are bid as active traders expect geoplitical ...

Treasury Market Update

Friday, February 28th, 2014

The flattening of the curve is relentless. The 5s 30s spread has moved to 208.2. I opened it this morning at 210.3. Similarly, 10s 30s opened yesterday at 95.8 and this morning at 94.8. It rests currently at 93.4 basis points. I have heard of extension trades in the very ...

Morning Miscellany

Friday, February 28th, 2014

Treasury curve continues flattening trend. I suppose this is the last gasp of the month end extension trade which is so well advertised that there cant be much left in it. I would look to buy 5s vs 30s as the next iteration of supply from Jack Lew and his ...

Treasury Curve Flattening

Friday, February 28th, 2014

The 5s 30s spread opened at 210.3 and is now at 209.8 . It has been quite sometime since it was that flat.

Stratfor On Ukraine/Crimea

Friday, February 28th, 2014

Via Stratfor: A BBC reporter on Feb. 28 reported seeing 10 lorries full of men and bearing Russian military plates moving on the road from Sevastopol toward Simferopol. The report came amid dispatches from other media outlets, including Liga.net, saying that a group of Russian Mi-24 helicopters were moving toward Belbek ...