Archive for July, 2008

Back to the Future

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

The FT reports that Russia plans to create a state controlled grain trading company. Russia is the fifth largest exporter of grains and the trading company would control 40 percent to 50 percent of the country's output,according to the FT story. The bottom line is that this action will probably lead ...

Risk Aversion

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Carlyle Group is shuttering its Blue Wave Hedge Fund because they could not raise enough assets to make the enterprise worthwhile. (Worthwhile means generating fat fees for the operators of the hedge fund.) The hedge fund opened its doors around the time the credit crunch gripped the market last year ...

Credit Crunch

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

The credit crunch reminds me of a Dickens novel with numerous characters,stories and subplots . The saga goes on as the head honcho at National Australia Bank warns of more heavy losses and writedowns at financial institutions.

Overnight Economic Releases

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Overnight Economic Releases: Australian TD Securities Inflation Rate (July) German Retail Sales (June) Australian RBA Commodity Index ( July) Eurozone PMI (July)

Closing Comments July 31 2008

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities surged today, as investors responded to weaker than expected economic data by driving bond yields lower. The main focus was the GDP data and the initial claims data.GDP was less than anticipated and prior periods were revised down with Q4 2007 showing outright contraction. The initial ...

Agency

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Agency spreads are wider by about 2 basis points across the curve. It was a lethargic trading session as investors anticipate the employment report tomorrow.The Federal Home Loan priced $3billlion of a 5 year note today at T+82. One trader commented that while the pricing was fair the deal struggled ...

MBS

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Mortgages are about 3 ticks wider to Treasury debt today. Participants report a lack of activity except for some originators selling some product. The coupon of choice this morning was 6.5s.One portfolio manager noted that the issue of the new higher loan limit has not been settled yet. Some feel ...

Corporate Bonds

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Corporate bonds are showing surprising strength in the face og economic data which manifests weakness and a crumbling equity market.The IG 10 is a tad tighter at 130 ¾ /131 ¾ . One veteran salesperson suggested that there is still a substantial street short in the index and dips are ...

Morning Miscellany

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

The economic data released this morning have a dovish tint about them.The initial jobless claims report showed a big jump in first time filers and in continuing claims. The 4 week moving average at 393K is approaching the Maginot line of 400k. Some are trying to explain away some of the ...

Opening Comments July 31 2008

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Prices of treasury coupon securities are virtually unchanged in overnight trading. The yield on the 2 year note has dropped 1 basis point to 2.62 percent. The yield changes on the other benchmarks are so minute as to be imperceptible so I will call them unchanged. The yield on the ...