Archive for February, 2015

China PMI Contracts Again

Saturday, February 28th, 2015

Via Reuters: (Reuters) - Activity in China's factory sector contracted for a second straight month in February on unsteady exports and slowing investment, an official survey showed on Sunday, reinforcing bets that more policy loosening is needed to lift the economy. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) inched up to 49.9 in ...

On the New Era of Central Banking

Saturday, February 28th, 2015

Earlier today I posted this on the PBOC decision to once again cut rates in China in response to weak growth. It dawned on me that market participants have assigned to central banker an aura of invincibility and omniscience beyond that which they deserve. Central banks do not have perfect ...

Emerging Wage Pressures

Saturday, February 28th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By Eric Morath and Jeffrey Sparshott Updated Feb. 27, 2015 8:48 p.m. ET 39 COMMENTS Wage growth is breaking out in an unexpected corner of the U.S. economy: the nation’s restaurants and bars. Food-service employment has surged since the recession ended nearly six years ago, growing twice as fast as overall payrolls. But those ...

China Cuts Rates….Again

Saturday, February 28th, 2015

Via the WSJ: BEIJING--China cut interest rates for the second time in four months in a fresh sign of Beijing’s concern over slowing growth. China’s central bank said Saturday evening that it would reduce its benchmark lending rate and deposit rate each by 0.25 percentage point to lower domestic companies’ borrowing costs. ...

Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Dudley COmments

Saturday, February 28th, 2015

Yesterday I posted this and this on comments by New York Fed President William Dudley on level of long term rates as the FOMC hikes short term rates. The gist of his comments is that there will be no  Greenspan like "conundrum" which keeps long rates low as the FOMC ...

Weekend Preview

Friday, February 27th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Monday March 2 will bring the monthly PMI or equivalent reports for February most major economies, with highlights noted below. AUSTRALIA: The AiG Performance of Manufacturing index has been below 50 in 13 of the last 15 months, with the high in the last 15 ...

Trading labor Report Week

Friday, February 27th, 2015

This is a guest post from my friend and former colleague Stephen Liddy. Unfortunately what Steve wrote does not transfer well to this low rent blog but if you take the time the table is readable. It is my fault and not his. Via Stephen Liddy a fully paid up subscriber. With NFP ...

More on Dudley

Friday, February 27th, 2015

Via TDSecurities: No shift here. NY Fed President Dudley just made his first comments since early December and these may feel dovish, but they are not new and merely reiterate a risk management approach to raising rates that was front and center at the January FOMC meeting. Much of what he ...

Dudley on the Rate Cycle and Too Low Long Rates

Friday, February 27th, 2015

This is an interesting Dow Jones  story which contains some verbal nuggets from New York Federal Reserve Bank President Dudley. Dudley would prefer patience regarding the timing of rate hikes and would raise rates later rather than sooner. However, he notes that long rates are too low and if those rates ...

GDP

Friday, February 27th, 2015

Via TDSecurities: The second iteration of Q4 GDP came in slightly better than the markets expected, with the downward revision less severe at 2.2% from 2.6%. Personal consumption was revised just a tad lower to 4.2% from 4.3%, but final sales to domestic purchasers were revised higher to 3.2% from 3.2%, ...