Archive for November, 2015

Gundlach Says Fed Should Not Raise rates

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: DoubleLine co-founder warned against rate hike earlier in 2015 L.A. firm's funds have grown and outperformed peers this year Jeffrey Gundlach, whose $50.5 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund has outperformed 94 percent of peers this year, says the Federal Reserve shouldn’t raise rates because the economy is showing more signs ...

Deflation Worries at IMF

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Via the WSJ: 10:41 am ET Nov 5, 2015 ABENOMICS Deflation Risks May Warrant Radical New Central-Bank Thinking, the IMF’s Chief Economist Says By IAN TALLEY The Bank of Japan and other central banks around the world may need to try radical new easy-money policies to stave off the rising specter of deflation and revive sickly economic ...

Halliburton Launch

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Halliburton $7.5b Debt Offering Launches in 5 Parts 2015-11-05 17:32:29.752 GMT By Allan Lopez (Bloomberg) -- $1.25b 5y launch at +110; guidance +120a, +/-5; IPT was +140/150 * $1.25b 7y launch +140; guidance +150a, +/-5; IPT was +170/180 * $2b 10y launch +160; guidance +170a, +/-5; IPT was +195a * $1b 20y launch +185; guidance +1905a, +/-5; ...

More Excellent Swap Commentary

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

My last post was from a swaps market maker who described the stop out price action in the swaps market this morning. The same market maker has just sent out another piece with a detailed explanation of the reasons for the dysfunction in the swap market. This one is a ...

Important Swap Story

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

I posted this piece several days ago on dysfunction in the swap market. I received this piece about 2 1/2 hours ago from a swaps trader whose musings I have posted here before. He must remain anonymous and please remember that he wrote it at about 800AM New York time ...

Productivity Analysis

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: US:  Productivity Slows, But Exceeds Expectations *        Nonfarm productivity grew at a respectable 1.6% q/q pace in Q3, bettering the market consensus for a 0.3% q/q decline. *        Unit labor costs growth rebounded to 1.4% q/q pace, though this fell short of ...

Labor Anecdotes

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Via CRT Capital: *** This month's employment proxies are nearly evenly split with 7 positive vs. 6 negative.  However, the positive data points are especially relevant, namely Initial Claims, ISM non-manufacturing, and ADP.  On the other hand, the negative anecdotes include ISM and Empire State.  It's worth noting that at just ...

FX

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Global Central Banks Still at Center Stage - Comments from Yellen seemed to give fuel to the backup in US yields, even though she really said nothing new - Norway’s Norges Bank kept rates steady at 0.75%, as expected, but the krone rallied in the aftermath - ...

Brokered Convention

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

I am a political junkie and can recall watching the Democrats nominate JFK in 1960. In my lifetime there has never been a convention which has lasted more than one ballot. Today in his weekly WSJ op ed piece Karl Rove speculates on the possibility that this may be the year ...

EU Cuts Inflation and Growth Outlook for 2016

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: The European Commission cut its euro-area growth and inflation outlook for next year, citing more challenging global conditions and fading impetus from lower oil prices and a weaker euro. Gross domestic product in the 19-nation bloc is set to grow 1.8 percent in 2016, down from a previous projection of ...