Labor Anecdotes

November 5th, 2015 10:03 am | by John Jansen |

Via CRT Capital:

*** This month’s employment proxies are nearly evenly split with 7 positive vs. 6 negative.  However, the positive data points are especially relevant, namely Initial Claims, ISM non-manufacturing, and ADP.  On the other hand, the negative anecdotes include ISM and Empire State.  It’s worth noting that at just +182k the bar for an upside surprise is lower than it’s been since February 2014. ***

Positive:
1) Initial Claims for NFP-survey week were lower at 259k Oct vs. 267k Sept and 277k Aug. 4-week moving-average 263.25k Oct vs. 272.5k Sept. Record low on a labor force/population adjusted bases.
2) Continuing Claims for Oct NFP-survey week were lower at 2.146 mm vs. 2.195 mm Sept.
3) ADP Employment Change -higher-than-expected at 182k Oct vs. 180k consensus and above the Private-NFP consensus of 169k.
4) Challenger Layoffs were lower at -1.3% YoY Oct vs. +93.2% Sept.  Monthly change was -8.4k Oct vs. +17.7k Sept.
5) ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment increased in Oct to 59.2 vs. 58.3 Sept – Second highest of the cycle.
6) Historically, the November NFP (October data) release doesn’t have a strong bias, coming in higher 50% of the time for an average +76k.  When the release disappoints (50% of occurrences) the average miss is just -40k.  On a shorter history, three of the last five years November NFPs have come in above consensus for an average of +74k.
7) The November Unemployment print (October data) comes in lower-than-expected 50% of the time, higher 22% and as-expected the balance.  The lower prints have averaged -0.11% vs. higher prints that have a +0.20% norm.

Negative:
1) ISM Manufacturing Employment decreased in Oct to 47.6 vs. 50.5 Sept – fourth consecutive decline.
2) Liscio’s employment forecast is a touch below consensus at +165k private-NFP and +173k NFP.  UNR seen at 5.0% vs. 5.0% consensus.
3) Empire State Employment decreased to -8.5 Oct vs. -6.2 Sept. Average Workweek moved higher however, reaching -7.6 Oct vs. -10.3 Sept – although still negative.
4) Philadelphia Fed Number of Employees decreased to -1.7 Oct vs. +10.2 Sept. Average workweek decreased -7.3 Oct vs. +7.0 Sept.
5) Labor Differential: Jobs-Hard-to-Get minus Plentiful decreased to -3.6 Oct vs. -0.1 Sept.
6) Chicago PMI showed the employment gauge slipped to 50.6 Oct vs.  52.2 Sept – nonetheless still >50 and suggesting growth in the labor market.

Unknown:
1) NFIB employment index

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