Weekend Preview

February 27th, 2015 2:17 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

Monday March 2 will bring the monthly PMI or equivalent reports for February most major economies, with highlights noted below.

AUSTRALIA: The AiG Performance of Manufacturing index has been below 50 in 13 of the last 15 months, with the high in the last 15 months at 50.7 in July 2014; a rebound above 50 from 49.0 in January would be a noteworthy event.

CHINA: The official PMI for the Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing sectors will be released Sat evening, with the BBerg consensus expecting a decline in the Manufacturing index to 49.7 from 49.8 in January which was the first reading below 50 since September 2012. The final Markit Manufacturing PMI will be released Sunday evening, with the consensus expecting a 50.1 reading.

S. KOREA: On Saturday the February trade data will be released, with a focus on any rebound in Export momentum. The BBerg consensus expects the January IP release on Sunday evening to show a solid 0.4% MOM gain followed by the February manufacturing PMI, which extended its recent gains to 51.1 in January.

INDIA: The Manufacturing PMI will be released for February; the index has been above 50 for the last 15 months.

JAPAN: Company Sales and Profits data for 4Q2014 should be helped meaningfully by the weaker JPY, aiding exports and increasing translated foreign sales and profits (the opposite effect that has been depressing US foreign sales and earnings recently). The final February manufacturing PMI will be reported, with the preliminary at 51.1.

RUSSIA: The Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 47.0 in February (BBerg consensus), another new record low.

EURO ZONE: A busy day as the final (and more complete) Manufacturing PMI will be released, with the preliminary 51.1 the strongest in 7 months. Also released will be the January UR (BBerg consensus steady at 11.4%) while the BBerg consensus expecting the initial CPI reading to improve slightly to -0.5% YOY in February from the record-tying -0.6% YOY in January. Manufacturing PMIs will also be released for Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

ITALY: In addition to the February PMI, the January UR is expected to hold at 12.9%, according to the BBerg consensus, while GDP growth for 2014 is estimated at “only” -0.4%.

UK: The BBerg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to rebound slightly to 53.3 from 53.0 in January, which would be the 23rd consecutive reading above 50.

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