Archive for April, 2014
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
My last post was the TD Securities analysis of Q1 GDP. This is the less optimistic view of economist Jay Morelock of FTN Financial.
Via FTN Financial:
Today at 10:03 AM
The advanced reading of Q1 GDP rose at a 0.1% rate, far below the 1.2% consensus estimate and the lowest reading since ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Another Take on GDP
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
Via TD Securities
The US economic recovery slowed to a crawl in Q1, with the economy growing at a very disappointing 0.1% m/m pace, reflecting in large part the hit from the unseasonably cold winter weather. This was a far worse performance than the market expectation for a modest 1.2% q/q ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on GDP
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
Here are recent quotes on the Apple tranches with the pricing levels in parentheses:
3 year 15/12 (18)
5 year 35/33 (38)
7 year 54/52 (60)
10 year 78/75 (77)
30 YEAR 99/97 (100)
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Apple a Day
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
The GDP printed well below expectations at 0.1 percent. Some have suggested that it is a backwards looking data point and Q2 data is improving so all will eventually be sweetness and light. Others have suggested that the component pieces are worse than the headline. If you are a regular ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Morning Miscellany
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
The Treasury will announce a new batch of 3s 10s and 30s later today and this month that includes a new 10 year and a new 30 year and active rolling into and out of the WI.
Here are roll calculations via RBS Securities:
Treasury 3yr, 10yr and 30yr Roll Analysis
RBS expects ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
Via CRT:
OVERNIGHT FLOWS: Treasuries were slightly lower overnight with a variety of data – the net of which was consistent with a continued sideways economic grind. Overnight volumes were firm with cash trading at 110% of the 10-day moving-average, with TY coming in at 99% of norms. 5s were the ...
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Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
The WSJ has a different take on China surpassing the US as global economic leader. The FT article I cut and pasted leaned heavily on a purchasing power parity approach in judging China as ready to surpass the US. The WSJ cites nominal GDP and per capita data to arrive ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More on China and US
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
An agency of the World Bank, the International Comparisons Program, posits that China will overtake the US this year as the world's largest economy. According to the FT article the US has held that title since 1872 when Ulysses Grant occupies the White House.
Via the FT:
April 30, 2014 1:01 am
China ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Uneasy Lies the Head That Wears the Crown
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
Via Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman:
The euro recovered from a dip to three week lows near $1.3775 after the flash CPI was not as soft as feared following the disappointing German report yesterday. The 0.7% y/y increase compares to the 0.5% rise in March, which had spurred more talk ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Wednesday, April 30th, 2014
James Holloway and Elizabeth Stanton publish a daily piece for Bloomberg which lays out in one place all a significant batch of information relevant to that day's trading. Last week they noted the narrow range in the 10 year note and how rare it has been. They repeated the point ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Tedious Range