Archive for April, 2014

Another Take on GDP

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

My last post was the TD Securities analysis of Q1 GDP. This is the less optimistic view of economist Jay Morelock of FTN Financial. Via FTN Financial: Today at 10:03 AM The advanced reading of Q1 GDP rose at a 0.1% rate, far below the 1.2% consensus estimate and the lowest reading since ...

GDP

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Via TD Securities The US economic recovery slowed to a crawl in Q1, with the economy growing at a very disappointing 0.1% m/m pace, reflecting in large part the hit from the unseasonably cold winter weather. This was a far worse performance than the market expectation for a modest 1.2% q/q ...

Apple a Day

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Here are recent quotes on the Apple tranches with the pricing levels in parentheses: 3 year  15/12 (18) 5 year  35/33 (38) 7 year   54/52 (60) 10 year  78/75  (77) 30 YEAR 99/97 (100)

Morning Miscellany

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

The GDP printed well below expectations at 0.1 percent. Some have suggested that it is a backwards looking data point and Q2 data is improving so all will eventually be sweetness and light.  Others have suggested that the component pieces are worse than the headline. If you are a regular ...

WI Rolls

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

The Treasury will announce a new batch of 3s 10s and 30s later today and this month that includes a new 10 year and a new 30 year and active rolling into and out of the WI. Here are roll calculations via RBS Securities: Treasury 3yr, 10yr and 30yr Roll Analysis RBS expects ...

Overnight Flows

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Via CRT: OVERNIGHT FLOWS: Treasuries were slightly lower overnight with a variety of data – the net of which was consistent with a continued sideways economic grind.  Overnight volumes were firm with cash trading at 110% of the 10-day moving-average, with TY coming in at 99% of norms.  5s were the ...

More on China and US

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

The WSJ has a different take on China surpassing the US as global economic leader. The FT article I cut and pasted leaned heavily on a purchasing power parity approach in judging China as ready to surpass the US. The WSJ cites nominal GDP and per capita data to arrive ...

Uneasy Lies the Head That Wears the Crown

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

An agency of the World Bank, the International Comparisons Program, posits that China will overtake the US this year as the world's largest economy. According to the FT article the US has held that title since 1872 when Ulysses Grant occupies the White House. Via the FT: April 30, 2014 1:01 am China ...

FX

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Via Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman: The euro recovered from a dip to three week lows near $1.3775 after the flash CPI was not as soft as feared following the disappointing German report yesterday.  The 0.7% y/y increase compares to the 0.5% rise in March, which had spurred more talk ...

Tedious Range

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

James Holloway and Elizabeth Stanton publish a daily piece for Bloomberg which lays out in one place all a significant batch of information relevant to that day's trading. Last week they noted the narrow range in the 10 year note and how rare it has been. They repeated the point ...