Good things come to those who wait—and U.S. workers have waited a long time to get a raise. Their increased pay could come at the expense of corporate profits, however, and put pressure on the shares of companies with high labor costs.

That wages are heading upward after years without growth isn’t a matter for debate. Earlier this month, the government reported that average hourly earnings grew by 2.5% year over year in May, and all signs point to continued increases. If you’ve been thinking about asking for a raise, now’s your chance.

Here’s further evidence of the trend: Macy’s (ticker: M) last week became the latest company to reach a wage-hike deal with unionized workers, while surveys like the one conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business continue to point toward increases. Even slowing job growth isn’t likely to keep wages down, says Strategas Research Partners economist Don Rissmiller. While the May payrolls report showed the U.S. economy had added just 38,000 jobs, this is typical of the second half of an economic expansion: Unemployment is low, so wages start to rise and businesses compensate by hiring fewer workers. “We’ve hit an inflection point,” Rissmiller says. “Wages will keep going up from here.”

But more money for workers means less for the corporate coffer. That is especially true for labor-intensive businesses, where employee pay will eat up a larger portion of revenue—and squeeze profit margins. The good news: By focusing on companies that are more efficient, investors can avoid the worst of the coming wage pressure.

Under the right conditions, rising wages are offset by increased productivity, so corporate profits feel little impact. That’s what happened in the late 1990s, and helped fuel the dot-com bubble. Other times, however, wages rise without productivity increasing, and profits feel the pinch. Unfortunately, that’s the case now. In the past 12 months, productivity has risen by just 0.7%. “Productivity is not helping, while wages are hurting,” says JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. “You’re getting the worst of both worlds.”

Lakos-Bujas identified three traits that help determine companies that will feel the pinch from rising wages, and those that are relatively immune. Companies with high labor intensity—defined as low revenue per employee—will get hurt more than those with lower labor intensity; companies with lower net income margins—a sign of little pricing power—will feel the effect more than those with higher margins; and small companies will suffer relative to large ones because they lack the scale to restrain costs.

Consumer-discretionary companies, including VF Corp. (VFC), Marriott International (MAR), and Darden Restaurants (DRI), fare poorly on these traits. It’s not hard to see why: They have sales of just $245,000 per worker, well below the Standard & Poor’s 500 average of $432,000. While extra pay would normally come back in increased consumer spending, more is going to health care and technology, and less to consumer goods like clothing and eating out. Labor-intensive companies such as FedEx (FDX), Tenet Healthcare (THC), and Jacobs Engineering (JEC) also made the list.

Despite the evidence that labor costs are rising, the market has yet to start placing that bet. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin writes that a sector-neutral basket of the 50 most labor-intensive stocks has outperformed the 50 least labor-intensive companies so far this year. Kostin doesn’t expect that to continue, which could be good news for companies such as Netflix (NFLX) and Nike (NKE), equipment manufacturer Deere (DE), pharmacy-benefits manager Express Scripts Holding (ESRX), and Qualcomm (QCOM), all of which have lower labor costs.

“We expect the pattern will reverse, and high-labor-cost companies will soon underperform,” Kostin says.

If any firms should benefit from higher wages, it’s consumer-finance companies, whose customers should have more money to pay off their credit-card bills. Well, not quite. Last week, Synchrony Financial (SYF), General Electric ’s (GE) former consumer-credit division, said charge-offs—or loans that need to be written off—would increase to 4.5%-4.8% from a previous forecast of 4.3%-4.5%. Shares of Synchrony tumbled 13%, and the news caused the stocks of competitors such as Discover Financial (DFS), American Express (AXP), and Capital One Financial (COF) to tank.

Those looking to scoop up the stocks on the cheap—and they are cheap, with the group trading at just over 10 times forward earnings—might want to think twice. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research notes that earnings for the consumer-finance industry have already plateaued. While strong wage growth means the consumer-credit market won’t collapse, charge-offs are likely to remain static, or decline slowly. “Neither scenario would be likely to light a fire under credit-card companies’ earnings,” Yardeni says.