January 06 2015

January 6th, 2015 6:02 am

Prices of Treasury coupons posted another round of gains in overnight trading as the risk off climate, deflation/disinflation fears, and concerns regarding the Greek elections dominate trading. The dollar remains in a bull market against virtually all currencies and that reality is guiding investment flows to the US. The yield on the 5 year note has declined to 1.52 from 1.56 at the New York close. The yield on the 7 year note has tumbled to 1.804 from 1.847. The still investment grade 10 year note breached 2 percent for the first time since the infamous great short squeeze of October 15 2014 and trades at 1.992 currently. I closed that benchmark at 2.034. The yield on the Long Bond has slipped to 2.565 from 2.599. The yield curve has posted mixed results. The 5s 10s spread has flattened to 47 from 47.3. The 5s 30s spread has steepened to 104.5 from 103.3. The 10s 30s spread has steepened to 57.5 from 56.5. The 5 year note is a superstar on spread. The 2s 5s 10s butterfly has narrowed to 40.9 from 43.3 at the close. The 5s 10s 30 spread has moved to -105. from -9.2 at the close. I always offer the caveat that I do not have Bloomberg but at -10.5 that appears to me to be a cycle rich level for that fly. Dealers report fast money stopping themselves out of sour shorts as the 10 year breached 2 percent. Real money in Japan extended into the belly from very short coupons. Bank portfolios in Asia sold modest size in the 3 year through 5 year sector.

In other markets 10 year Germany posted a new low at 48 basis points. In Japan the 10 year trades at 28.6 basis points. That is ridiculous but in each case it is supportive of 10 year US yields trading below 2 percent.

There was some economic data overnight and it was mixed. The HSBC PMI for China increased for both the composite and the service sector. The equity market in China gained ground as traders hope for some stimulus action from the PBOC. European PMIs were mixed. In Germany the result was mixed with services beating expectations and the composite trailing expectations. In France both measures beat the consensus. In the UK there was a big miss on both the composite and the services sector and that has contributed to the new low for cable.

Markets will remain volatile today but with oil down 2 percent once again I suspect that weakness in the longer end of the curve will be bought. Yesterday there were large sellers of the 10 year around 101-27/28 and chunky offers on the note contract around the 127-24 level. I would look to buy just in front of either of those levels with a tight stop.

Executing Sovereign Bond Buying in Europe

January 6th, 2015 5:07 am

This one is also from a fully paid up subscriber (across the pond) and as he says is making the rounds in Europe. The source is in the Netherlands and the article describes some ECB working papers which suggest an operational plan for the ECB when (if?) it decides to buy sovereigns. If you read Dutch then this link is for you. If not take this English summary.

Via a fully paid up subscriber:

Story in Dutch Press on ECB QE is doing the rounds this morning..(article was around pre-open)

Holland’s Financieele Dagblad reports that the CEB is working on a discussion paper on different ways to execute sovereign debt buying .. no surprises here given Draghi’s instructions to prepare options for alternative measures, but the piece says there are three options under possible consideration.

Firstly to buy bonds proportionately according to the capital keys. Under this option, the ECB would buy sovereign debt proportionate to the shares of the national central banks in the ECB’s capital key. These capital keys are calculated 50% on total population and 50% on GDP. Full weightings can be found on the attached spreadsheet, but of the major contributors Germany has a capital key of 17.9973%, France @ 14.1792, UK @ 13.6743%, Italy @ 12.3108% and Spain @ 8.8409%. In the event of this method being adopted therefore, a EUR 1trn balance sheet expansion would lead to ECB buying EUR 179.973bn of German debt… EUR 141.792bn of French Debt…. EUR 136.743bn of UK debt etc….

The second option being mooted in the article is that the ECB buy only AAA debt.. this would have the effect of pushing yields on the AAA debt down to zero or negative.. and act as an incentive for the market to seek yield elsewhere, hopefully encouraging further lending to businesses and consumers. This may be an easier pill to swallow for some of the national banks, as they do not wish to be seen agreeing to a programme that will pass an inordinate amount of risk back on to the taxpayers.

The third option to be considered is for the National banks to buy back their own government bonds according to their capital keys. This would reduce risk to the taxpayers still further.

The piece highlights that even if the ECB do announce a programme of sovereign debt buying at their next meeting on 22nd January, there is no requirement to provide details of how it will be executed at this time.

Prepare for Another Round of Very Low Rates

January 6th, 2015 4:50 am

A fully paid up subscriber forwarded to me some research from Scotia Bank. The analysts, Guy Hasselman and John Zawada, posit that the key to understanding markets in 2015 is the dollar. They assert that the dollar will appreciate in 2015 and it does not matter what the FOMC policy edict is. If the FOMC hikes rates that will only accelerate the pace of dollar strength and US curve flattening. Against that background the authors predict that the 10 year will breach the record low yield on 1.38 percent and that the Long Bond will trade with a “one handle”.

So strap yourself in for what might be a rocky ride.

Via Guy Hasselman and John Zawada of Scotia Bank:

Skeleton Key
 The key for global markets in 2015 could likely center on the level of the US dollar (USD) and
the speed of its ascent. The DXY dollar index has risen 13% in the past 6 months to the highest
level since 2005 and appears to be breaking out from a multi-decade channel. It might be in the
early stages of a powerful up-trend, further supported by economic fundamentals and central
bank policy divergences. History has plenty of examples of prodigious consequences resulting
from a strong dollar, particularly for emerging markets.
 As the world’s reserve currency, the USD interconnects countries, influences global trade, and
sways markets. The level of the USD materially impacts the decisions of investors, issuers, and
budgeters. Globalization and technological advances have made the global economy more
interconnected than at any point in history. The post-2008 quasi-coordination now appears to
be fracturing into ‘everyone for itself’ policy; in such, potent capital shifts have emerged.
 Dramatic exchange rate movements have taken place during the last six months, which are
spilling over into various markets. Higher levels of volatility should generally be anticipated in
2015. Elevated volatility means less leverage will be required or desired. Large dollar carry
trades will likely be pared, causing a feedback loop that benefits safe assets like the USD and
Treasuries over riskier assets.
 The relative strength of the US economy will be USD supportive regardless of whether the Fed
hikes rates or not. A Fed rate hike in the next two quarters would simply increase the speed of
the dollar rally and the speed of the Treasury yield curve flattening. Either way, the Fed will not
be able to do much to stop the USD from appreciating. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see
what the Fed will do should headline inflation fall to, say, 0%, while core stays near 2%. To
date, FOMC members have called the anticipated drop transitory and a benefit to the consumer.
 GDP growth in the US could be as strong today as it is going to get. Global levels of
indebtedness are enormous. Collapsing ‘velocity of money’ is a symptom of extreme
indebtedness. Fed policies have encouraged cheap issuance to spur growth today, but growing
debt levels borrows from future growth.
 However, since US debt levels are trumped by those in Europe, Japan, and many other
countries, the USD looks good on a relative basis. The shale revolution in the US (despite
plunging oil prices) is shrinking the US current account deficit; thus, also acting to support the
USD. On the other hand, a stronger dollar will hurt US competitiveness and exports over time.
 Over the past six years of the Fed’s zero interest rate policy, many countries and foreign
corporations were also able to issue cheap debt in USD. An appreciating dollar increases those
liabilities. Countries like China who have quasi-tied their currency to the USD, become less
competitive with key trading partners (Japan). Furthermore, any country dependent on
commodity exports receives less revenue. Global headwinds are significant.
 The bottom line is that a stronger dollar is deflationary. QE provides market liquidity and can
serve to temporarily boost asset prices, but it does little to create jobs or inflation. The biggest
hurdle is too much debt, not the need for more cheap money. QE may also have sizable
unintended consequences through rampant market speculation, herd-like investor behavior, and
the creation of asset bubbles. Those potential ramifications have yet to be realized.
 The best investments or trades usually entail envisioning markets going to previously
unforeseen levels and tying it to a coherent story line. Given the simple scenario outlined
above, investors should become open minded to the potential for long-dated Treasuries
continuing to rally. I can envision the10-year note trading to a new low yield (below 1.38%)
and even below 1%. I expect the yield curve to flatten viciously this year. I remain a bond bull
and believe the 30-year yield will trade with a ‘one handle’ (i.e.; below 2%) in 2015. I could
even be right for different reasons.
 “How did I get lost, what’s the final cost? Could you please help me find the key?” – Black
Stone Cherry

From the Schadenfreude Department

January 5th, 2015 10:05 pm

This one you could not make up. It seems that liberal citadel Harvard has imposed higher health care costs on faculty and staff (many of whom were full throated supporters of the legislation) and now the faculty is in an uproar about the “pay cut”. It is good to peer outside of the ivory tower once in awhile.

Via the NYTimes:

WASHINGTON — For years, Harvard’s experts on health economics and policy have advised presidents and Congress on how to provide health benefits to the nation at a reasonable cost. But those remedies will now be applied to the Harvard faculty, and the professors are in an uproar.

Members of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, the heart of the 378-year-old university, voted overwhelmingly in November to oppose changes that would require them and thousands of other Harvard employees to pay more for health care. The university says the increases are in part a result of the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act, which many Harvard professors championed.

The faculty vote came too late to stop the cost increases from taking effect this month, and the anger on campus remains focused on questions that are agitating many workplaces: How should the burden of health costs be shared by employers and employees? If employees have to bear more of the cost, will they skimp on medically necessary care, curtail the use of less valuable services, or both?

“Harvard is a microcosm of what’s happening in health care in the country,” said David M. Cutler, a health economist at the university who was an adviser to President Obama’s 2008 campaign. But only up to a point: Professors at Harvard have until now generally avoided the higher expenses that other employers have been passing on to employees. That makes the outrage among the faculty remarkable, Mr. Cutler said, because “Harvard was and remains a very generous employer.”

In Harvard’s health care enrollment guide for 2015, the university said it “must respond to the national trend of rising health care costs, including some driven by health care reform,” in the form of the Affordable Care Act. The guide said that Harvard faced “added costs” because of provisions in the health care law that extend coverage for children up to age 26, offer free preventive services like mammograms and colonoscopies and, starting in 2018, add a tax on high-cost insurance, known as the Cadillac tax.

Richard F. Thomas, a Harvard professor of classics and one of the world’s leading authorities on Virgil, called the changes “deplorable, deeply regressive, a sign of the corporatization of the university.”

Mary D. Lewis, a professor who specializes in the history of modern France and has led opposition to the benefit changes, said they were tantamount to a pay cut. “Moreover,” she said, “this pay cut will be timed to come at precisely the moment when you are sick, stressed or facing the challenges of being a new parent.”

The university is adopting standard features of most employer-sponsored health plans: Employees will now pay deductibles and a share of the costs, known as coinsurance, for hospitalization, surgery and certain advanced diagnostic tests. The plan has an annual deductible of $250 per individual and $750 for a family. For a doctor’s office visit, the charge is $20. For most other services, patients will pay 10 percent of the cost until they reach the out-of-pocket limit of $1,500 for an individual and $4,500 for a family.

Previously, Harvard employees paid a portion of insurance premiums and had low out-of-pocket costs when they received care.

Michael E. Chernew, a health economist and the chairman of the university benefits committee, which recommended the new approach, acknowledged that “with these changes, employees will often pay more for care at the point of service.” In part, he said, “that is intended because patient cost-sharing is proven to reduce overall spending.”

The president of Harvard, Drew Gilpin Faust, acknowledged in a letter to the faculty that the changes in health benefits — though based on recommendations from some of the university’s own health policy experts — were “causing distress” and had “generated anxiety” on campus. But she said the changes were necessary because Harvard’s health benefit costs were growing faster than operating revenues or staff salaries and were threatening the budget for other priorities like teaching, research and student aid.

In response, Harvard professors, including mathematicians and microeconomists, have dissected the university’s data and question whether its health costs have been growing as fast as the university says. Some created spreadsheets and contended that the university’s arguments about the growth of employee health costs were misleading. In recent years, national health spending has been growing at an exceptionally slow rate.

In addition, some ideas that looked good to academia in theory are now causing consternation. In 2009, while Congress was considering the health care legislation, Dr. Alan M. Garber — then a Stanford professor and now the provost of Harvard — led a group of economists who sent an open letter to Mr. Obama endorsing cost-control features of the bill. They praised the Cadillac tax as a way to rein in health costs and premiums.

Dr. Garber, a physician and health economist, has been at the center of the current Harvard debate. He approved the changes in benefits, which were recommended by a committee that included university administrators and experts on health policy.

In an interview, Dr. Garber acknowledged that Harvard employees would face greater cost-sharing, but he defended the changes. “Cost-sharing, if done appropriately, can slow the growth of health spending,” he said. “We need to be prepared for the very real possibility that health expenditure growth will take off again.”

But Jerry R. Green, a professor of economics and a former provost who has been on the Harvard faculty for more than four decades, said the new out-of-pocket costs could lead people to defer medical care or diagnostic tests, causing more serious illnesses and costly complications in the future.

“It’s equivalent to taxing the sick,” Professor Green said. “I don’t think there’s any government in the world that would tax the sick.”

Meredith B. Rosenthal, a professor of health economics and policy at the Harvard School of Public Health, said she was puzzled by the outcry. “The changes in Harvard faculty benefits are parallel to changes that all Americans are seeing,” she said. “Indeed, they have come to our front door much later than to others.”

 

But in her view, there are drawbacks to the Harvard plan and others like it that require consumers to pay a share of health care costs at the time of service. “Consumer cost-sharing is a blunt instrument,” Professor Rosenthal said. “It will save money, but we have strong evidence that when faced with high out-of-pocket costs, consumers make choices that do not appear to be in their best interests in terms of health.”

Harvard’s new plan is far more generous than plans sold on public insurance exchanges under the Affordable Care Act. Harvard says its plan pays 91 percent of the cost of services for the covered population, while the most popular plans on the exchanges, known as silver plans, pay 70 percent, on average, reflecting their “actuarial value.”

“None of us who protested was motivated by our own bottom line so much as by the principle,” Ms. Lewis said, expressing concern about the impact of the changes on lower-paid employees.

In many states, consumers have complained about health plans that limit their choice of doctors and hospitals. Some Harvard employees have said they will gladly accept a narrower network of health care providers if it lowers their costs. But Harvard’s ability to create such networks is complicated by the fact that some of Boston’s best-known, most expensive hospitals are affiliated with Harvard Medical School. To create a network of high-value providers, Harvard would probably need to exclude some of its own teaching hospitals, or discourage their use.

“Harvard employees want access to everything,” said Dr. Barbara J. McNeil, the head of the health care policy department at Harvard Medical School and a member of the benefits committee. “They don’t want to be restricted in what institutions they can get care from.”

Although out-of-pocket costs over all for a typical Harvard employee are to increase in 2015, administrators said premiums would decline slightly. They noted that the university, which has an endowment valued at more than $36 billion, had an unusual program to provide protection against high out-of-pocket costs for employees earning $95,000 a year or less. Still, professors said the protections did not offset the new financial burdens that would fall on junior faculty and lower-paid staff members.

“It seems that Harvard is trying to save money by shifting costs to sick people,” said Mary C. Waters, a professor of sociology. “I don’t understand why a university with Harvard’s incredible resources would do this. What is the crisis?”

JPMorgan Unwound

January 5th, 2015 9:52 pm

I spent a large chunk of my bond market career at the House of Morgan (buy the book by Ron Chernow) with about 7 year at Chase Manhattan Bank and with 11 years at JPMorgan. I was a victim of the Chase takeover of JPM as the bank portfolio was my best client and it is difficult to sell bonds to yourself in a meaningful way. I will always have affinity for the firm as the time I spent there was rewarding in many ways.

Notwithstanding my experience there the bank is too big. I have written this before but it is simple analysis which makes the point of the bigness of the organization. When I began working for Chase in 1981 if I had suggested that the bank should race out and acquire JPMorgan, Chemical Bank, Manny Hanny, Bank One (Ohio), FNB Chicago, NBDetroit, Texas Commerce Bank, Washington Mutual and remnants of Bear Stearns my sanity would have been questioned and my urine tested. I always find it somewhat amusing when regulators rail against the too big to fail doctrine. They approved every one of the aforementioned corporate combinations and did the same for both Citibank and Bank of America.

I raise the point because a Goldman analyst has written a piece which suggests that the bank should be split up to maximize its value for shareholders. The banks will need to raise quite a wad of capital and splitting the bank into component pieces would alleviate the need to raise capital.

Via Forbes

Bigger has long been better in the banking world, but regulatory pressure could make life under one roof less tenable for JPMorgan Chase JPM -3.1%.

That’s the view from Goldman Sachs’ bank analysts Monday, in a note delving into the prospects for a breakup of JPMorgan “given that size is now a regulatory negative.”
In a way, JPMorgan is in its current position because it survived the financial crisis in better shape than its biggest rivals. Goldman calls the bank a “victim of its own success” as Citigroup C -3.15% nearly collapsed, while Bank of America’s BAC -2.91% crisis-era deals for Countrywide and Merrill Lynch proved to bring just as much pain as gain.

JPMorgan, meanwhile, was able to buy Bear Stearns for a song and beef up its national footprint by scooping up failed Washington Mutual. In its present form, JPMorgan’s various business lines complement each other, but also suggest they are strong enough to operate on their own, according to Goldman.

The impetus for Goldman’s analysis is a recent Fed proposal that would raise JPMorgan capital requirements to 11.5% given its size and scope as a globally systemically important financial institution, more than 100 basis points above the requirements of its peers.

“A breakup could create value by reducing or removing JPM’s 20%-plus discount to pure play peers and increasing capital returns and return on equity,” the report says, assuming that as standalone businesses the bank’s operations would face less of a regulatory burden with respect to capital requirements.

The Goldman analysis considers two options: a four-way split along business lines and a more clean break of the companies traditional banking and institutional businesses. Under either scenario, the simplified operations could make up the valuation gap that currently exists between JPMorgan (which goes for 11 times expected earnings) and firms like Wells Fargo WFC -2.74% (13 times), Morgan Stanley MS -3.13% (14 times), or asset manager BlackRock BLK -2.59% (18 times), among other firms.

In favor of staying together is JPMorgan’s claim that It generates $6 billion in net income from synergies between its businesses. Those benefits include things like serving as a one-stop shop for a company requiring advice on M&A and financing for subsequent deals — a role the company was prepared to fill in AT&T’s T -0.94% proposed $39 billion takeover of T-Mobile in 2011– or the asset management business having a natural customer base for selling its products in the bank’s client roster.

Goldman figures that the breakup would be worth more than those synergies, but warns that the risk of executing a separation could diminish those returns under some scenarios. Any further increase in the capital buffers required by regulators could make a breakup even more attractive though.

Better valuations for JPMorgan’s pieces would substantially make up the discount the bank currently trades at against pure-play peers, Goldman estimates, in either a full break or a split of the trust bank, investment bank and asset management arm from its traditional banking business – essentially splitting “JPMorgan” and “Chase .”

In summation, Goldman’s analysts see a JPMorgan breakup as, at the very least, a “put option” should regulatory requirements get even stricter. Should the Fed decide to add the globally critical capital surcharges into its annual capital plan reviews, it could prompt JPMorgan (and its peers) to become more receptive to alternative options.

Shares of JPMorgan, which returned just under 10% in 2014, were down 2.5% at $60.94 Monday afternoon.

Eclectic Topics Via Merrill Lynch Research

January 5th, 2015 9:11 pm

Via Merrill Lynch:

  • Rapidly declining oil tends to pull down risky asset valuations and long term interest rates.
  • As our commodities strategists have argued this high oil price volatility is likely to persist, with further downside to oil.
  • Once oil stabilizes and Greece plays out credit may well rally meaningfully – but then we run into the rate hiking cycle.
  • Unhappy New Year. Whereas risk assets staged a spectacular year-end rally, as oil prices stabilized and economic data was strong (Monthly HG Market Review: Dec ’14: Decoupling from oil), 2015 has started on a sour note as oil price declines have re-accelerated. Like we saw multiple times in the second half of 2014, rapidly declining oil tends to pull down risky asset valuations and long term interest rates. Hence today’s $2.82 decline in oil (WTI) to below $50 ($49.88) led to a 1.8% decline in stocks, 2.4bps widening in HG spreads and 0.7pt decline in HY prices (both CDX), along with a 9bps decline in 30-year interest rates to 2.60%.
  • As our commodities strategists have argued this high oil price volatility is likely to persist, with considerable further downside to oil prices as there is global excess supply of oil, while demand and supply adjust to price only very slowly over time (Saudi put no more). While we disagree that lower oil prices should lead to lower risky asset valuations and lower long term interest rates, as the US economy appears very strong and declining oil a net further positive for the economy, we must respect the markets – which highlights the risk of continued high oil-induced volatility and long term interest rates struggling to rise until oil prices stabilize.
  • Lower long term interest rates assert widening pressure on credit spreads in the short term as yield sensitive investors pause. Furthermore, sustained interest rate increases in the front end of the curve – driven by rate hiking expectations with the strong US economy – have led to outflows from short duration funds that too assert widening pressure on spreads (Outflows from short-term funds continue). Finally in the short term we are concerned that political risks during the period leading up to the January 25th Greek election may add further widening bias to credit spreads.
  • Beyond these short term risks, once oil stabilizes and Greece plays credit may well rally meaningfully. However, the cheapening in credit does little to alleviate our concerns about the negative technicals associated with the Fed’s rate hiking cycle, which we continue to expect leads to wider high grade credit spreads and higher spread volatility.– Hans Mikkelsen (Page 4)
  • The periphery through the Greek magnifying glass. The need for fear…while keeping the door open to compromise. The centre of gravity of Greek politics has moved beyond the negotiated path of gradual technical solutions. Syriza is contemplating haircuts on the principal of the EU loans. We believe this is a “red line” for the Europeans, which would put at risk the limited “internal transfers” system painfully put in place with the EFSF and the ESM. Moreover, any successful haircut on debt in Greece would play into the hands of those advocating partial defaults in other parts of the periphery, potentially re-creating a rise in risk premia across the board. In this context, we think the EU has no other politically realistic option than to “talk tough” on Greece and lay bare the chain of consequences – down to potential Grexit – that a unilateral haircut would trigger. Alexis Papachelas, editor of the Greek newspaper Kathemerini made the point that this election will be about a choice between “anger” and “fear”. The Europeans cannot do much about the first term. They can make the second more tangible. At the same time, they have to tread carefully so as to avoid the accusation of mingling directly in the democratic process. In parallel with this tough talk, acknowledging that the second Greek package may not have fully restored debt sustainability there and that further tweaking of the loans conditions are on the table – further maturity extension or even another interest rate cut on the principal ‒ would open the door to a potential post-election compromise, whoever wins. – Gilles Moec, Ruben Segura-Cayuela (Page 6)
  • December 2014 SAAR running at 16.8mn units. The December 2014 U.S. light-vehicle SAAR is running at 16.8mn units, up from 15.5mn units a year ago. This is above our estimate of 16.7mn units but below market consensus of 16.9mn units. About 80% of the industry has reported. December 2014 had 26 selling days, while December 2013 had 25 selling days. As a result, the YoY growth rates presented are adjusted down for selling days.Douglas Karson, Mark Hammond, Max Hubbard (Page 5)

January Effect

January 5th, 2015 5:32 pm

This is an interesting article on how the course of trading in the early days of the year correlates with the final results for that year.

Via the FT:
January 5, 2015 7:05 pm
Why first trading day of new year matters

James Mackintosh
As goes January, so goes the year. The old saying worked remarkably well after being identified back in the 1970s, but there is no need to wait until the end of the month to draw a conclusion. So far 2015 has been dire as fears of eurozone deflation combine with renewed worries about Greece to offer all the new year reassurance of a raw-egg infused hangover remedy.

 

Oil led markets down on Monday, with the US benchmark crude price briefly dropping below $50 for the first time since April 2009, and the euro falling below $1.19 to reach lows last seen in 2006.

Equities tumbled too, with oil and eurozone banks leading the market down. The 3.7 per cent fall in Europe’s Stoxx 50 index was the biggest since 2011.

All this is bad, but history suggests even this can be ignored in favour of Friday, the first trading day of the new year. Friday was not too bad, but did see plenty of equity markets, including the US and UK, drop.

Why should one day’s trading, in thin markets, matter? There is decent evidence that it provides a guide to performance: when the first trading day is up, equities do much better for the year as a whole (see chart).

One explanation links to the “January effect”, which sees riskier assets typically outperform early in the new year. If shares cannot do well even with the January tailwind, it bodes ill for the months ahead.

It should not be a surprise that shares might have a less good year this year, particularly in the US. American equities are expensive by historical standards, and while the US economy has been doing fine, big companies are exposed to the rest of the world too. Indeed, earnings expectations for the S&P 500 have dropped 2.2 per cent in the past year, the biggest cut since 2011.

Less obvious is the idea that the euro might rise. With German inflation coming in below expectations, few are willing to bet on a rising euro. The first day of trading pattern for the euro since it was created suggests it should do the opposite of equities, and rise against the dollar. Investors who have trouble believing one day’s move matters for shares will quite reasonably be unwilling to put money into euros based on just 16 days of evidence since 1999.

Ugly TIPS

January 5th, 2015 4:40 pm

The collapse in oil prices took its toll on the TIPS market today. One trader noted that 10 year breaks opened at 170 and immediately headed south closing at 164. The 5 year break closed at 115.9 and 30 year breaks closed 188.

Dealers report some end user buying of breakevens but that has been countered by heavy selling from prop traders. There has also been selling of real yields on an outright basis by end user types.

As one trader noted the TIPS market is a hostage of the oil market now and until oil finds stability TIPS will be a shunned asset class.

Busy Day in Treasury Market

January 5th, 2015 3:42 pm

David Ader of CRT Capital reports that volumes in the Treasury market today were 180 percent of the prior 10 day moving average. Those days suffered as we were in holiday mode but nevertheless the rally in bonds and the crater in equities and buyers and sellers writing tickets for the first time in awhile.

Via David Ader at CRT  Capital:

Treasuries were particularly active on Monday as the market returned in force to greet the New Year. Overall on the day cash traded at 180% of the 10-day moving-average for the most active day in outright cash terms since Dec 18.  5s were the most active issue with a 31% marketshare, while 10s managed just 26%.  2s and 3s combined to 25% at 12% and 13%, respectively.  The 7-year sector took 11%, while the long-bond gained marketshare as the sector outperformed to end at 6%.

Treasury Update (2)

January 5th, 2015 1:39 pm

The yield curve has marginally reversed and is a tad steeper than where it was back around 1015AM. The 5s 30s spread is a basis point steeper at 104.3 and 5s 10s 9s 0.5 steeper at 48 basis points.

One veteran market maker reports buying from momentum players and rate lock sellers against 127-23/24 in the note contract.