Corporate Bond Trading: Very Heavy Trading Yesterday

January 22nd, 2015 6:18 am

Via Bloomerg:

IG CREDIT: Very High Volume, Large Issuance Session
2015-01-22 10:56:30.830 GMT

By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — Trace count for secondary trading ended at
$18.5b yday vs $17.3b on Tuesday, $16.3b last Wednesday.
* $18.5b, highest since $19.2b on Feb. 12, 2014
* $18.5b, 9th highest since Jan. 2005
* $18.5b, more than on 99.6% of trading days since Jan. 2005
* 10-DMA $15.8b
* 144a trading added $3.3b of IG volume yday vs $2.4b Tuesday,
$2.8b last Wednesday
* Top 3 most active issues were 2015-2016 maturities
* Most active issues longer than 3 years
* VZ 3.50% 2024 was the day’s most active issue with
client buying 4:3 over selling, together accounting for
70% of volume
* JPM 3.20% 2023 was next with client flows at 69%
* AAPL 3.85% 2043 was 3rd with client buying 2.5x selling,
together taking 83% of volume
* AAPL 3.85% 2043 was 3rd with client buying 2.5x selling,
together taking 83% of volume</li></ul>
* MDT 3.15% 2022 was most active 144a issue; client flows took
88% of the volume
* BofAML IG Master Index at +152 vs +153; 2014 range was +151,
seen Dec 16; +106, the low and tightest spread since July
2007 was seen June 24
* Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research IG Index
unchanged at +182, the wide for 2014-2015; +140, a 2014 low
and new post-crisis low was seen July 30, 2014
* Click here for S&P spread history in a 10-year lookback
* Markit CDX.IG.22 5Y Index at 70 vs 72.1; 76.1, the wide for
2014 was seen Dec 16; 55 was seen July 3, the low for 2014
and the lowest level since Oct 2007
* IG issuance was $11.8b vs $8.4b Tuesday
* Pipeline of expected domestic, SSA January issuers and M&A-
related deals for 2015
* ABIBB has history of January issuance

January 22 2015 Opening

January 22nd, 2015 6:10 am

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have continued the sharp retreat which began yesterday amid volatile trading. Dealers report European central bank buyers in the 5 s through 7s sector and real money from Japan buying in the same sector. Real money has been a chunky seller in the long end of the US (10s and 0ut) and market participants report selling of the long end in other major markets. JGBs took a bath and one report described selling in the JGB future as very aggressive. In another note I just received one trader describes very heavy selling in the long end of the Treasury futures market with several block trades which totaled about $1 million per basis point trading.

The yield on the benchmark 5 year Treasury has jumped to 1.1.382 from 1.344 at 900PM last evening. Similarly the yield on the 7 year note soared to 1.711 from 1.633. The yield on the benchmark 10 year note pushed higher to 1.919 from 1.869. The yield on the Long Bond surged to 2.526 from 2.459. The yield curve is significantly steeper. The 5s 10s spread has moved to 53.7 from 52.5. The 5s 30s spread jumped to 114.4 from 111.5. The 10s 30s spread moved to 60.7 from 69 last evening. The belly of the butterflys I follow has taken a battering. Last Friday at this hour  I marked 2s 5s 10s at 20.7. That spread is currently 32.1.

Today is obviously all about the ECB and the exact details of what they will do and then how much of that is priced into the current rate structure. On January 09 (labor report Friday) the 10 year note closed at 1.95 percent and then opened on Monday January 12 at 1.97 percent. By the close of business on that Monday the 10s closed at 1.909. Therefore I view this as a key area for the 10s and at least initially we should see support for 10s at between here (1.92 and 1.96). I do not see how the ECB can disappoint here so back 20 basis points off the lowest levels in the 10 year note I would not be short and I would be looking for a spot to locate a long.

I posted as I always do the morning FX note from Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers. He notes the race to cut rates by central banks. The surprise action by the Bank of Canada has raised speculation that Australia will be forced to stimulate its economy via lower rates. That just cements the point that we remain in a low rate environment and assuming the ECB does not underwhelm markets then I think that there is a cap on rates in the US as we will continue to look attractive to global investors.

FX

January 22nd, 2015 5:50 am

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:

Interest Rate Race Supplants Currency Wars

– The interest rate race has now started in earnest, but this is not nearly as troublesome as a true currency war competitive depreciations
– Despite the supposed press leaks about the ECB program, there are still a lot of variables that are not clear: duration, who keeps the risk and choice of instruments, start date
– There is some speculation that the ECB could push its deposit rate more into negative territory and/or cut the 30 bp emergency lending rate
– A point that we think has been lost on many observers is that fiscal policy is also going to ease
– The race lower in interest rates may see Australia join the ranks as next month

Price action: The dollar is mostly weaker ahead of the ECB meeting. After making an intra-session high of $1.1679 yesterday, the euro is now at $1.1620 against the dollar. Against the franc, the euro is trading at just below CHF1.00. Sterling is also stronger, rising to $1.5160. The dollar spent most of the overnight session above ¥118.0 but has since falling back down to ¥117.70. Most EM currencies are trading stronger against the dollar with MYR and PHP outperforming. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was flat, but we note that the EM MSCI index is now trading back to early December levels, up over 7.0% since its lows. EuroStoxx 600 is consolidating the record highs scored yesterday.  Weekly Japanese MOF data show Japanese investors bought a record amount of foreign equities last week (¥657 bln), apparently with a preference for European shares.

The interest rate race has now started in earnest, but this is not nearly as troublesome as a true currency war of competitive depreciations. The beggar-thy-neighbor currency wars are zero-sum undertakings.  It allows one country to take aggregate demand from another country via exports.  Lower interest rates can help foster new demand.  It is not zero-sum.

Today is all about the ECB.  The press claims to have access to people or documents that have the ECB buying 50 bln euros of bonds a month.  The duration of the program is not clear. There was a conflict in the media.  Some claimed that the program would last a year.  Others claimed it would last until the end of 2016.  

Aside from duration, other key elements of the program were apparently not leaked. These include the pooling of risk.  Specifically, are the bonds kept on the ECB’s balance sheet or the national central banks.  Creditors and debtors are aligned on different sides of the issues. Also, what instruments can be bought?  Should bonds with a negative yield be purchased?  What about bonds below investment grade?  What are the maturity guidelines?   The point is that there are many moving parts, and there is plenty of scope for surprises.  

There is some speculation that the ECB could push its deposit rate more into negative territory and/or cut the 30 bp emergency lending rate.  The focus has been almost exclusively on sovereign bonds, but what of the EU and EIB bonds?  We had suggested foreign bonds (US Treasuries), but Draghi dismissed this as too much like intervention.  

The technical and operational requirements are substantial.  It will likely take several weeks to set it up.  A March start date would not be surprising, and at least one of the leaks suggested as much. For comparison, between early December when ECB signalled it would do take more actions to expand its balance sheet and the time the first bonds are bought, the Bank of Japan would have expanded its balance sheet by roughly 4% of GDP or around $200 bln.  This would be the equivalent of the ECB expanding its balance sheet by about 450 bln euros.  

Leaving aside the precise details, including size, we are not persuaded that increasing the ECB balance sheet will boost CPI.  It does not appear have worked by this measure.  This is clearly true in Japan, where the BOJ cut revised down its CPI forecast.  Without flogging a dead horse, suffice it is here to simply say that base money rises under QE, but not money supply.  The decline in the euro and the decline in oil are net positive developments for the eurozone.  Core inflation remains positive.  Bank lending to households and businesses is improving gradually.  It seems more a demand than a supply problem.  

A point that we think has been lost on many observers is that fiscal policy is also going to ease. The new European Commission has indicated a considerably more balanced approach to the fiscal targets. In effect, through its application of the rules, greater flexibility will be shown in exchange for structural reforms.  

What we are witnessing now appears to be a realignment of institutional power away from the creditors.  This is the meaning behind the slur in Germany referring to the ECB as the Banca d’Italia Frankfurt office.  However, there is a difference between Berlin and the Bundesbank.  Merkel did not object to OMT.  She apparently will not object to a sovereign bond buying program, no matter what her private misgivings may or may not be.  German members of the ECB quit over the first attempt to buy sovereign bonds under Trichet.  The German members did not agree with OMT.  They have dissented on minor issues and large ones.  Despite compromises reached, the German members of the ECB most likely will not approve of the new bond buying scheme.   The relative isolation of the German delegation to the ECB should not be confused with the isolation of Germany or Merkel.  

The Bank of Canada continued the parade of central bank surprises with a 25 bp rate cut yesterday. Policy has been on hold since September 2010.   The Canadian dollar which sold off (-1.4%) on Tuesday in response to poor data took another leg down in response to the surprise rate cut (-1.8%).  It was the single biggest decline in the Canadian dollar in three years.   Governor Poloz framed it in terms of insurance policy given the downside risks to growth and inflation.  This means that it need not be the start of an easing cycle.  This year’s GDP forecast was cut by 0.3% to 2.1%, which is still respectable relative to most other high income countries.  The 2016 growth forecast was lifted by 0.1% to 2.4%.  Headline inflation forecasts trimmed, but the core is expected to remain mostly steady after some softness here in Q1.  Still, Poloz made it clear that more insurance may be needed if oil prices continue to decline.

China has not repeated its late-November surprise rate cut, but the central bank is injected more liquidity into the system.  At the end of last week, it provided additional funds to be lent to agriculture sectors and households.  Yesterday while rolling over short-term loans to banks, it injected CNY50 bln.  Today, it conducted its first reverse repo transaction in a year, worth another CNY50 bln. This will be taking as a further sign that policy is in easing mode, albeit moderate.

The race lower in interest rates may see Australia join the ranks as next month.  The Australian dollar itself lost a cent in reaction to the BoC rate cut. Indicative pricing in the derivatives market suggest increasing positioning in this direction.  Brazil delivered the as expected 50 bp rate hike, which is counter to the generalized trend.  The tightening cycle is in the late stages, and the statement left the door open for another 50 bp hike, but also for the possibility of a reduction in the pace of tightening.

Goldman Tramples Volcker Rule

January 22nd, 2015 5:29 am

The NYTimes leads with a piece this morning on Goldman Sachs and the Volcker Rule. The Volcker Rule is embedded in Dodd Frank and prohibits banks from making risky bets with its own money. The article reprts that Goldman has purchased apartments in Spain, a shopping mall in Utah and an ink company in Europe. All of those transactions were proprietary bets by the investment bank.

Via the NYTimes

Goldman Investments Are Testing Volcker Rule

Goldman Sachs has been on a shopping spree with its own money, snapping up apartments in Spain, a mall in Utah and a European ink company, all of which the bank hopes eventually to sell for a profit.

These are the sorts of investments that many, including some of the bank’s regulators, had assumed would be prohibited by one of the signature elements of the 2010 financial overhaul legislation, the Volcker Rule.

Yet while its competitors have been abandoning the business of making big bets with their own money, frequently citing the risks involved, Goldman has been quietly coming up with several new ways to put its own money to work in formats that appear to stay on the right side of Volcker.

The investments have caused disquiet among some of Goldman’s big clients, which complain privately that the bank is supposed to help its clients buy companies and other assets but instead ends up competing for those assets.

Paul A. Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who inspired the rule, and the two senators who wrote it said through spokesmen that they were disappointed that banks had been allowed to continue making big proprietary bets using their own money, despite the lawmakers’ intent.The regulators who were responsible for putting the law into practice have given banks room to continue making purchases with their own money through their merchant banking arms.

But other large banks have essentially stopped this activity. And Goldman’s merchant banking business is upsetting some regulators, who worry that such investments do not follow the spirit of the law, which aims to reduce concentrated risks at banks, according to people at three regulatory agencies, who were not authorized to speak publicly.

The Federal Reserve, Goldman’s main regulator, has been looking at placing new restrictions on merchant banking. Other regulators are reviewing other powers they might be able to use to rein in these investments, people at the agencies said.

A Federal Reserve governor, Daniel K. Tarullo, noted at a Senate hearing in November that banks had been prohibited from engaging in commerce, like owning companies outright. He said that it would probably be good to go back to such a divide. “Nothing that I have observed in my time teaching in this area, writing in this area, and in the almost six years on the Fed has changed my view that fundamentally it’s been a sound principle, and there’s no particular reason to digress from it,” Mr. Tarullo said.

Goldman has “been more aggressive about pushing, and wanting to do these investments,” said Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, a consultant who works with banks and regulators on compliance with the Dodd-Frank financial law.

“What I’m hearing from the regulators is they are not wanting to be seen as being too soft on Goldman, of all the banks. So I’m not convinced that they are going to get away with it this time,” said Ms. Rodriguez Valladares, who has been an occasional contributor to The New York Times DealBook.

A spokesman for Goldman said in a statement: “Banks are in the business of providing promising businesses with the capital they need to grow. Sometimes that means offering a loan and other times making an equity investment. We are proud to invest alongside our clients in industries that create jobs and promote economic growth including major infrastructure projects, clean energy and technology companies and cutting-edge health care businesses. We ensure our investments comply with all regulations, including the Volcker Rule.”

In the years just before the financial crisis, most Wall Street banks had big merchant banking operations that bought assets with bank money. In many cases, these investments were made alongside clients through in-house private equity funds, but the banks themselves were the biggest investors in the funds.

During the crisis, these funds were the source of some of the banks’ biggest losses. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had to write off billions of dollars they lost in commercial real estate funds.

Those losses were part of the impetus for the Volcker Rule, which prohibited banks from contributing more than 3 percent of the money invested in in-house private equity and hedge funds.

Goldman Sachs and many other banks have been selling off funds that relied on the banks for more than 3 percent of their investments. Last month, the Fed gave the banks a two-year extension to finish spinning off those investments. Many analysts have worried that the loss of such investments could hurt Goldman, considering how profitable they have been.But Goldman has been reassuring its shareholders that it will be able to redeploy money to buy real estate and companies that it will own outright, or with one or two big partners.

This strategy could lead to a bigger upside if the investments pay off, because Goldman will not have to share the profits. But it could also lead to larger losses if the investments fail.

It is hard to determine the size of Goldman’s merchant banking operation because the firm is not required by law to break out specific investments. In some cases, though, Goldman’s investments have been made public by its partners or by the companies being acquired — and those cases alone add up to billions of dollars of investments in the last two years.

In the second half of 2014, Goldman spent about $800 million with two partners for 144 hotels in Britain, and $200 million with two different partners on the South Towne Center mall in Sandy, Utah, among other large investments.

Goldman is unlikely to invest its own money at the same scale that it did before the financial crisis. New rules require banks to maintain bigger buffers of capital for riskier investments, making such investments more costly than they were.

But the bank has said that it intends to continue such investments when the potential payoff is big enough. It is harder for Goldman to withdraw from the business than some of its competitors because proprietary bets have always been more central to its business model.

The investments have already created some tension with private equity firms that usually turn to Goldman for advice on acquisitions.

When Goldman and a Spanish partner bought 3,000 affordable housing units in Spain in the summer of 2013, it beat a bid from the Blackstone Group, according to people briefed on the deal who were not authorized to speak publicly. Afterward, Blackstone complained to others in the industry about Goldman competing against its clients, the people said.

A Blackstone spokesman said the firm had no comment on the deal.

Private equity firms have grumbled that Goldman has an unfair advantage as an investor because it is a federally insured bank and can borrow money cheaply from the Federal Reserve.

When the Volcker Rule was proposed in 2010, it was intended to reduce conflicts of interest between insured banks and their clients, and to lessen the risks that banks took with their own money.

“We simply cannot accept a system in which hedge funds or private equity firms inside banks can place huge, risky bets that are subsidized by taxpayers and that could pose a conflict of interest,” President Obama said when he introduced the law.

Even before the final rule was enacted, Goldman and other big banks cut back a few businesses that were clearly prohibited by the new law, most notably, the proprietary trading desk where banks made short-term trades for their own accounts.

But the regulators indicated early that they were not likely to focus as much on longer-term investments, like those made by merchant banks, despite the fact that such investments are harder to sell and generally cause more problems during a crisis.

The co-authors of the provision creating the Volcker Rule, Senators Carl Levin of Michigan and Jeff Merkley of Oregon, both Democrats, in 2012 wrote a letter to regulators criticizing them for interpreting the law too narrowly.

“We are disappointed that, despite statutory authority, and clear expressions of Chairman Volcker’s and congressional intent, the proposed rule fails to explicitly restrict bank investments in merchant banking activities,” the senators wrote.

The Volcker Rule as currently drafted by regulators, however, is not likely to be the final word on what types of investments are allowed. The five major bank regulators are working on a report that was mandated by Dodd-Frank, which will provide a fuller list of what banks are and are not allowed to do, and could address merchant banking.

Goldman’s merchant banking operations already came under scrutiny at a Senate hearing in November that examined Wall Street’s direct holdings of commodities and commodities infrastructure, like coal mines and aluminum warehouses.

Goldman has been the one bank that has expressed a commitment to continuing in this line of work. Last summer, for instance, it reportedly bought a 68 percent stake in Daesung Industrial Gases, a South Korean company, along with a partner.

Mr. Tarullo, the Federal Reserve governor, said at the Senate hearing that the central bank was considering imposing greater restrictions on these commodity investments. But Mr. Tarullo also said the bank could, at the same time, limit merchant banking investments more broadly.

“It may be worthwhile taking a look at those merchant banking guidelines, not just for commodities but for all activities actually,” Mr. Tarullo said.

SocGen on ECB

January 22nd, 2015 5:19 am

This is an informative note from Kit Juckes to SocGen clients.

Via Kit Juckes at Socgen:

Good morning from a grey, chilly  Frankfurt. 30 years ago, when I was in my first job, living here, the dollar was surprising me by its strength daily. It got to USD/DEM 3.46, which is the equivalent of EUR/USD trading below 0.60.  Mind you, those were the days of Reagan and Volcker, not Obama and Yellen.

Before I get to the ECB, a word on Brazil and Canada.
When Guido Mantega popularised the use of the term ‘currency wars’ to describe the impact of the Federal Reserve’s super-easy monetary policy on other countries, the Brazilian real was worth almost 65 cents. Now, it has been falling for almost four years and is worth 38c, while the Banco Central do Brasil raised rates again yesterday (to 12.25%), on the same day as the Bank of Canada cut rates to 0.75%. The Brazilian move was expected, but nevertheless it’s a reminder that those who first cut rates when their currencies were climbing (far) too high four years ago are now paying the price as the capital flows that sent them there have slowed, or reversed. As for Canada, the ‘surprise’ rate cut will not be surprising to many in hindsight – there was room to cut rates and it is clear that a sharp slowdown in the oil industry will have a much bigger impact on the Canadian economy than in many others. We still expect USD/CAD to spend most of this year in a 1.25-1.30 range and long USD/CAD remains one of my strongest conviction calls for 2015.

I think it will be a lot easier for the ECB to ‘please’ asset markets, and a lot easier to further boost Frankfurt’s booming real estate, than to get GDP growth, or inflation up. But the focus today is on markets, not the real world.
There will a lot of detail to absorb from the ECB meeting. It seems almost certain that sovereign bond purchases will be announced; likely that we will see at least €50bn per month for at least a year; possible that they extend it to cover long-dated debt. The more they buy, in terms of quantity, duration and in extending beyond Aaa to all investment grade (but probably not beyond), the better for risk sentiment. Yesterday afternoon, newswires reported that the Executive Board proposed buying €50bn of bonds through 2016, prompting much debate about whether that meant one or two years’ worth of purchases (ie, €600bn or over €1trn) and considerable volatility. So much for the idea that ECB action is priced in and it will all be a damp squib. The press commentary this morning is that the initial proposal (to be debated by the ECB Council) is for €50bn per month for at least a year. The SG view is that the programme will be consistent with the stated aim to grow the ECB’s balance sheet by €1trn, and that will eventually require over €500bn in government bonds and €400bn in private sector assets through one programme or another.

The more contentious issue is whether the credit risk exposure from buying bonds will be mutualised or left with national central banks. The latter seems likely, although some form of hybrid solution will probably be discussed. In extremis, the idea that a country in trouble would see its central bank responsible for the losses on its own debt when it does not have the ability to print money is pretty frightening. The fact that a central bank can print money is why QE is possible in the first place. However, even messy QE, is better than none at all. The move is likely to drive more of the front end of the European rates market to zero yields or lower. Our rates strategists don’t think the effect will be to widen peripheral spreads, particularly in shorter-dated maturities.

For the euro, the more short-dated rates/yields are driven down, the worse it is for the currency. Conversely, if peripheral spreads tighten, or at least do not widen, particularly beyond 5 years, that is euro-supportive. So too are tightening credit spreads and rallying equities. Negative short-dated yields are a powerful tool for forcing savings out of banks/bonds, but are counter-balanced if there is greater attraction to other euro-denominated assets. The FX market will take its cue from how others react, and the more peripheral bonds and equities hold up, the greater the risk of a short-covering rally. Only if long-dated peripheral spreads are spooked by the national-level risk-taking will the euro’s fall continue without any kind of bounce. We still expect EUR/USD below 1.10 before long but today, the ‘best’ euro short may be one from our EM colleagues. Short EUR/PLN looks like a decent bet if the size of the package is big enough to be euro negative, and if the markets aren’t immediately spooked by where the credit risk resides.

As for the effect on the economy, an improving bank lending survey may suggest that temporarily, the Euro area is already doing a bit better. But it’s still in stagnation, CPI inflation has not troughed yet, debt levels remain absurdly high, and the idea that growing a central bank’s balance sheet is the same as increasing money supply, is like comparing a light shower to a monsoon. If yields can’t be dragged much lower, if equities can’t rise dramatically after having been boosted by QE elsewhere, and if QE doesn’t have much impact on bank lending (and why would it?), then the biggest economic impact of the move will have to come via a weaker currency. And for the real trade-weighted euro to fall enough to really help boost growth and inflation, it will have to fall much further.

The Euro area is not the only place where ‘stuff’ is going on today, of course, but it will be the main attraction. UK public sector finances data and the CBI trends survey are due too (GBP is softer after yesterday’s MPC minutes, leaving my expectation of a short-covering rally looking foolish). And the US releases weekly claims data.

JPM Duration Survey

January 21st, 2015 7:26 am

RATES: Longs Rise in Latest JPM Survey
2015-01-21 12:09:02.903 GMT

By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey for the
week ended Jan. 20 vs week ended Jan. 12.
* Longs 20 vs 13
* Neutrals 60 vs 65
* Shorts 20 vs 22
* Net longs 0 vs -9
* “The all clients survey shows the fewest neutrals since
December 8, 2014’’
* Active clients:
* Longs 25 vs 17
* Neutrals 67 vs 75
* Shorts at 8, unchanged
* “The active clients survey shows the fewest changes
* “The active clients survey shows the fewest changes</li></ul>
since November 3, 2014’’

Treasury Flows

January 21st, 2015 7:03 am

I got a late start on the day so this is rather truncated. Dealers report Japanese clients buying 5s and 7s early in the session and then other non Japan Asia clients buying 10s later in the session.

FX

January 21st, 2015 6:59 am

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:

Central Banks Dominate FX Price Action

– While markets await the ECB tomorrow, today we focus on other central banks
– The take away from the BOJ meeting is that it is not going to rush into any strong action to offset the inflationary impact of falling energy prices
– The BOE’s decision to keep rates on hold earlier this month was a unanimous decision, meaning that the two hawks have capitulated
– The BOC won’t cut interest rates, but in the monetary policy statement, it is expected to cut its growth forecasts
– In EM, Brazil is expected to hike rates by 50 bp, and we see the bank keeping a hawkish tone in the statement; the PBOC injected fresh capital via its operations

Price action:  The dollar is softer on the day.  The euro is trading around $1.1570, while sterling is underperforming, trading near $1.51 following news that the two dissenting BOE members have switched to the dovish camp.  The yen is outperforming following the BOJ meeting overnight, trading back under ¥118.0.  The New Zealand dollar is once again testing the $0.7600 level, but has not been able to breach it.  In the EM space, the RUB is underperforming while HUF, PLN, and IDR are outperforming.  The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 1% with the Shanghai Comp adding nearly 5%, making it the biggest 2-day rally since 2009.  The Nikkei was down 0.5%.  Euro Stoxx 600 is flat near midday, while S&P futures are pointing to a lower open.

  • The European Central Bank meets tomorrow, and that is the main event of the week.  The price action today is dominated by other central banks.  The market is still struggling to find a new balance after the Swiss National Bank’s surprising move last week.  
  • The Swiss franc remains volatile against both the dollar and euro.  The franc has gained 1.3% against the dollar and is the strongest currency today.  The fact that its balance sheet is 80% of GDP, at least three times the proportionate size of the Fed and BOE’s balance sheet, and the deeper negative rates are not discouraging new buying–assuming any shorts have been forced out.  
  • The focus today, however, is on other central banks.  The yen is the second strongest of the majors, gaining almost 1%.  The dollar’s recovery from last week’s JPY115.85 low ran out of steam at the 20-day moving average just below JPY119.0, which also coincides with a 61.8% retracement of the dollar’s decline from the JPY120.75 high seen on January 2.  
  • The take away from the BOJ meeting is that it is not going to rush into any strong action to offset the inflationary impact of falling energy prices.  It did extend two lending facilities, but BOJ Governor Kuroda denied intentions to cut the deposit rate, which we had thought was possible.  As expected, the BOJ cuts its forecast for CPI in the FY15 to 1% from the 1.7% forecast in October.  Optimistically, it would appear, the BOJ revised up growth to 2.1% from 1.5% FY15 and to 1.6% from 1.2% in FY16.   Interestingly, the BOJ’s forecasts are based on oil prices rising from $55 to $70 a barrel by the end of FY16.  
  • Sterling is the weakest of the major currencies.  It fell a cent from its high near $1.5180 in response to the somewhat unexpected news that the two hawks on the MPC capitulated.  The BOE’s decision to keep rates on hold earlier this month was a unanimous decision (9-0).  In the middle of last month, one of the hawks (Weale) reiterated his stance that a rate hike was needed.  The December short-sterling futures contract rallied on the news but not before falling to its lowest level (highest implied yield) since January 9.  Sterling has held above the recent lows (~$1.5035-60).  
  • UK employment figures were reported at the same time as the MPC minutes.  The data were largely in line with expectations.  The claimant count fell by 29.7k, matching the revised November figures.  The ILO unemployment rate slipped to 5.8% from 6.0%, which was a bit more than expected.  Average weekly earnings continue to recover.  In the three months through November (year-over-year), they rose 1.7% vs. the 1.4% pace seen in the three months through October.  Recall they had bottomed at -0.1% last June.  This, coupled with the decline in inflation, is seen as boosting the purchasing power of households.  This is true even though the December retail sales to be reported on Friday, is likely to pull back after a heady 1.6% rise in November.  
  • The other central bank that is very much in focus today is the Bank of Canada.  The US dollar is consolidating the sharp gains scored yesterday against the loonie after the weakness in manufacturing sales (November’s 1.4% decline was twice the decline expected and the October series decline of 0.6% was nearly doubled in the revision to -1.1%), casts doubt on GDP growth.  The disappointing data underscored expectations for a dovish leaning central bank today.  The BOC won’t cut interest rates, but in the monetary policy statement, it is expected to cut its growth forecasts, and may even suggest that a weaker Canadian dollar is part of the adjustment process.  Note that Canada reports retail sales and its latest CPI figures on Friday.  Headline inflation is expected to ease (1.6% from 2.0%, but the year-over-year pace of core CPI is expected to tick up to 2.3% from 2.1%).  
  • The US dollar rose to a new 5.5 year high yesterday of roughly CAD1.2115.  In our weekly technical note, we suggested potential this week toward CAD1.2150.  This still seems reasonable.  We note that this roughly corresponds to the top of the Bollinger Band.  On a medium-term view, given the divergence of economic performance and policy trajectory, we look for the US dollar to trend toward CAD1.2625, a technical retracement target, on its way to CAD1.30, the high from 2008-2009.
  • Brazil central bank is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 12.25% today.  On Friday, Brazil reports mid-January IPCA inflation, expected to rise 6.7% y/y vs. 6.46% in mid-December.  This brings inflation back above the 2.5-6.5% target range after a brief dip below.  With electricity costs likely to be hiked this year (Energy Minister Braga hinted at 20-25%, some analysts see more), the inflation outlook remains pretty bad.  However, with the economy so sluggish, the central bank will not want to tighten too aggressively.  Language after the COPOM decision will be very important.
  • Newswires reported late in the London morning that China’s central bank added CNY50 bln to its CNY269.5 bln rollover of yuan loans. This will be taking as a further sign that policy is in easing mode, albeit moderate.
  • December US housing starts and permits is the main US economic release of the day.  Starts and permits are expected to have bounced back after declines in November.  Even in the best of times, this time series typically does not move the market.  This seems especially true ahead tomorrow’s ECB meeting.  
  • Later today Poland reports December IP and PPI.  The data will be important since we think the bank is on the verge of easing once again.  The minutes of its last policy meeting left the door open for more rate cuts if deflation risks deepened.  For EUR/PLN, support seen near 4.30 and then 4.25, resistance seen near 4.35 and then 4.40.
  • South Africa’s December CPI came in slightly lower than expected at 5.3% y/y vs. 5.8% in November.  This was the first negative m/m print (-0.2%) since mid-2013, and the lowest y/y rate since November 2013.  Falling commodity prices should allow the SARB to refrain from any further tightening.  Indeed, we see risk that an easing cycle begins in 2015 since the economy remains so weak.  South Africa still faces downgrade risk if slow growth prevents the fiscal targets from being met.

What to Watch for Today

January 21st, 2015 6:57 am

Via Bloomberg:

WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 7:00am: Mortgage Applications, Jan. 16 (prior 49.1%)
* 8:30am: Housing Starts, Dec., est. 1.040m (prior 1.028m)
* Housing Starts m/m, Dec., est. 1.2% (prior -1.6%)
* Housing Starts m/m, Dec., est. 1.2% (prior -1.6%)</li></ul>
* 8:30am: Building Permits, Dec., est. 1.058m (prior 1.035m,
revised 1.052m)
* Building Permits, m/m, Dec., est. 0.5% (prior -5.2%,
revised -3.7%)
* Building Permits, m/m, Dec., est. 0.5% (prior -5.2%,
revised -3.7%)</li></ul>
Central Banks
* 4:30am: Bank of England issues minutes
* 10:00am: Bank of Canada seen holding benchmark interest rate
at 1%
* 11:15am: Bank of Canada’s Poloz holds news conference
Supply 11:00am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills *
11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 4W billss

Eclectic Topics Via Merrill Lynch

January 20th, 2015 10:31 pm

One  interesting point is down inn the section on S and P  EPS outlook for 2015. In that paragraph the Merrill analysts predict that oil will eventually rade down to $31/$32.

Via Merrill Lynch Research:

Tuesday, 20 January 2015
Situation Room
Jan ’15 Credit Investor Survey: Oil capitulation
Summary
  • Consistent with recent volatility credit investors have generally become more concerned about risks, led by oil prices.
  • The net proportion of investors identifying themselves as UW Energy is now the highest in the history of our survey.
  • More than half of credit investors (52%) expect that the Fed will begin hiking interest rates by September this year.
  • Jan ’15 Credit Investor Survey: Oil capitulation. Consistent with recent volatility in financial markets, credit investors have generally become more concerned about risks, led by oil prices, geopolitical, sovereign crisis (think Greece) and deflation. With the collapse in oil prices the clear #1 concern for credit investors, not surprisingly positioning in the Energy sector took another sharp dip into underweight territory for both HG and HY investors. In fact, the net proportion of investors identifying themselves as UW Energy is now the highest in the history of our survey (since 2005).
  • More than half of credit investors (52%) expect that the Fed will begin hiking interest rates by September this year. While liftoff at the September meeting is the most commonly held view (24%), all FMOC meetings between June and December are in play according to the opinion of at least 11% of investors. 20% of investors expect liftoff in 2016 or later. Two thirds of investors expect the coming rate hiking cycle to be associated with unchanged to tighter credit spreads, with the rest expecting wider spreads. Credit investors generally reduced their overweight’s in our most recent survey – especially in HY. This is consistent with a sharply deteriorating near term outlook for credit spreads as net 25% and 18% of IG and HY investors, respectively, now expect spreads to widen over the next three month. Hans Mikkelsen, Michael Contopoulos, Neha Khoda, Jon Lieberkind, Marlane Pereiro, Yuriy Shchuchinov, Michael Youngworth (Page 5) (Page X)
  • Final monthly fund flows update for December. Last Friday, our vendor released the final report on mutual fund and ETF flows for the month of December. The data show a small outflow of $0.3bn for the month, down from a $12.1bn net inflow in November. The flows in December were split between a $5.8bn outflow from short-term funds and a $5.5bn inflow outside of short-term funds. The strong outflows from short-term funds in December were a reaction to fund losses during the month. – Yuriy Shchuchinov (Page 18)
  • CDX net longs up for IG, down for HY. Non-dealer investor’s net long-risk positioning rose to $42.5bn for CDX IG last week (as of January 16th), up from $38.8bn net long positioning in the prior week. This brings the current net long positioning for CDX IG to the highest level since November last year. At the same time net long risk investor positioning for CDX HY continued to decline, falling to $4.1bn last week from $4.3bn in the prior week. Given that CDX HY is about four times more volatile as IG, the current $4.1bn net long positioning for CDX HY corresponds to about $16.3bn CDX IG net long in terms of risk. This suggests that the current net long positioning in CDX IG remains significantly above that of CDX HY in terms of risk. – Jon Lieberkind (Page 19)
  • Strong foreign buying of US corp. bonds in November. In November, foreign investors remained buyers of US corporate bonds (excluding ABS), according to the TIC data, but at a notably faster pace than in the prior month. Thus, foreigners bought $19.8bn of corporates in November, up from $6.9bn net buying in October. Overall, foreigners bought a net of $33.5bn of US long-term securities in November, including $5.8bn in stocks, $22.8bn of Agency MBS, $0.6bn of Agency bonds and $3.0bn of Non-Agency MBS. At the same time, foreign investors sold $4.8bn of Treasuries. – Jon Lieberkind (Page 20)
  • S&P 500 EPS Outlook: A lost year of EPS growth. Lowering 2015 EPS by $4.50 on oil…third time’s the charm. We are again lowering our S&P 500 2015 EPS forecast, from $124 to $119.50 (-3.6%), erasing most of the 5% growth that we had been anticipating for the year. Our commodity team has lowered its average oil price forecasts for 2015/2016 to $50/$57 for WTI and $52/$58 for Brent, with further downside to $31-32 in the coming months as rapidly rising oil inventories put further pressure on prices. While most of our forecast changes reflect the lower oil price outlook, we are also incorporating an additional currency headwind of roughly 1ppt due to the continued strengthening in the dollar. Our new forecast implies growth of only 1% this year, well below top-down and bottom-up consensus expectations of $125 (+6% growth). – Dan Suzuki, CFA, Savita Subramanian, Alex Makedon, Jill Carey Hall, CFA  (Page 23)
  • Global Fund Manager Survey: Bull in the Headlights. Bottom line: The oil price collapse has induced lower inflation & profit expectations but not lower growth expectations; investors remain long US dollar, stocks, and consumer-assets (discretionary, banks, REITs – Chart 1); Jan FMS shows no mass capitulation in pro-risk allocation; if oil boosts non-US growth next 2-months investors will win; if not/US growth stumbles, a large risk-off asset allocation shift is likely. – Michael Hartnett, Brian Leung, CFA (Page 25)
  • Earnings Season Update: Week 1: EPS falls further amid weak banks results. A tough quarter for banks. With the conclusion of the first week of 4Q earnings season, 39 S&P 500 companies representing 12% of earnings had reported. Overall, 59% of companies have beaten on EPS, 51% have beaten on sales, and 41% have beaten on both, a tick-down in surprise stats from the prior week. Generally weak results from the banks dominated Week 1 reporting, with just one-fifth of Financials that have reported so far beating on the top and bottom line. Legal costs and a challenging market environment (which especially impacted FICC revenues) were headwinds to many large banks this quarter, and net interest margins continue to be pressured. Weaker than expected bank earnings caused bottom-up S&P 500 EPS to fall to $29.53 from $29.59 the prior week. We forecast $29.75, suggesting a smaller-than-average beat. – Savita Subramanian, Dan Suzuki, CFA, Alex Makedon, Jill Carey Hall, CFA (Page 22)
  • BoJ Preview: Lower inflation outlook, but no policy change 5. Downward revision of inflation outlook expected, but…When the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Board meets on 20-21 January, it will conduct an interim evaluation of the forecasts in the previous Outlook Report. In light of the oil-price decline, the BoJ is likely to lower its FY15 inflation forecast. Nevertheless, we expect the BoJ to maintain the current monetary policy framework regarding asset purchases due to two factors: (1) the BoJ likely believes low oil prices will cause only a temporary dip in inflation, which is expected to revive in 2H15; and (2) the BoJ is still waiting to see the effects of the stronger monetary easing it introduced on 31 October. –Masayuki Kichikawa, Shusuke Yamada, CFA, Shuichi Ohsaki (Page 24)
  • China Economic Watch: 4Q/December data present some positive messages. 4Q14 GDP growth was 7.3% yoy, unchanged from 3Q14 and slightly above the market consensus at 7.2%. IP growth rose to 7.9% yoy and retail sales growth was up too. We think these data should help support CNY, China-related currencies and other financial assets. These data could especially provide relief to China’s heavily hit stock markets. Monthly data were broadly in line with what we have expected: (1) There would be a post-APEC rebound in IP growth; (2) Growth is being stabilized thanks to stimulus measures introduced since September 2014; (3) Retail sales could be robust due partially to the rally of stock markets. -Ting Lu, Xiaojia Zhi, Sylvia Sheng (Page 26)
  • Homebuilder sentiment moderates. The NAHB housing market index, a measure of homebuilder sentiment, inched lower to 57 in January from 58 (revised up from 57) in December. While this was below expectations for a 58 print, the index remains at a healthy level and close to the post-recession high of 59. Looking at the details, the present sales index was unchanged at 62, while the future s