Across the Curve

Back to the Future

The WSJ reports that subprime loan creation in the first eleven months of 2014 was back at levels last seen in the giddy days of 2007. It seems like only yesterday.

Via the WSJ:
By
Alan Zibel And
AnnaMaria Andriotis
Feb. 18, 2015 4:57 p.m. ET
14 COMMENTS

Loans to consumers with low credit scores have reached the highest level since the start of the financial crisis, driven by a boom in car lending and a new crop of nonbank financial firms.

Almost four of every 10 loans for autos, credit cards and personal borrowing in the U.S. went to subprime customers during the first 11 months of 2014, according to data compiled for The Wall Street Journal by credit-reporting firm Equifax. That amounted to more than 50 million consumer loans and cards totaling more than $189 billion, the highest levels since 2007, when subprime loans represented 41% of consumer lending outside of home mortgages. Equifax defines subprime borrowers as those with a credit score below 640 on a scale that tops out at 850.

Nonbank lenders’ interest in customers who were the hardest hit by the financial crisis reflects both the relative health of the U.S. economy and the firms’ desire to take more risks at time when ultralow interest rates are depressing profits.

It also shows Americans are willing to take on more debt, which was reinforced by a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released Tuesday that showed total household debt increased $306 billion, or 2.7%, in the fourth quarter of 2014 from the year-ago period.

Meanwhile, a number of new nonbank lenders are rolling out personal loans and other types of financing geared toward subprime borrowers. Such lenders face far less regulatory scrutiny than do big banks. Many of these firms are backed by Silicon Valley venture capitalists or funded by private investors or hedge funds seeking higher returns in the low-rate environment.
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LendingTree Inc., an online-loan marketplace, said it helped arrange nearly 6,700 personal loans to subprime borrowers with FICO credit scores between 500 and 619 last year, up 761% from 2013, a surge the company attributes to growth in nonbank lenders entering the subprime market.

“We’re going from an era where for many years credit was extremely tight to an era where credit is now looser,” said Gabriel Dalporto, LendingTree’s chief marketing officer.

Borrowers with a FICO credit score of less than 650 owed roughly $48,000 on average across all debt obligations as of October 2014, according to San Jose, Calif.-based Fair Isaac Corp., whose FICO credit scores, which range from 300 to 850, are used in most consumer-lending decisions. That figure was roughly $55,000 in October 2012 and about $61,000 in October 2008.

One exception has been mortgages, which were the epicenter of the financial crisis of 2008. Mortgage lenders remain focused on borrowers with solid credit, according to industry data. Some $4 billion of subprime mortgages have been given out annually since 2009, down from a peak of $625 billion in 2005, according to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance.

The push into subprime loans could have broad implications for the U.S. economy. Easy financing has already helped fuel U.S. auto sales, which totaled 16.5 million cars and trucks last year, an increase of 5.9% from 2013 and up 59% from 2009, according to auto-information website Edmunds.com.

Some observers said the availability of subprime credit is a positive for borrowers and the economy. “This is helping people on a real level, helping them move forward,” said Dennis Carlson, deputy chief economist at Equifax.

Others are more concerned. “It’s good while the party lasts, but it’s exposing exactly the kinds of people to a negative economic shock that you don’t want to expose,” said Amir Sufi, a University of Chicago finance professor. Subprime borrowers pay much higher interest rates on loans than customers with good credit scores and are more prone to missing payments in periods of economic distress, said Mr. Sufi.

One potential check on the growth of subprime lending could come from the U.S. government. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is working on a requirement for some short-term lenders to consider borrowers’ ability to repay loans, out of concern that some are being saddled with loans they can’t afford. Such requirements already exist for credit cards and home loans.

Nonbank lenders catering to subprime borrowers said they are seeking to fill a void left by large banks, which have pulled back from riskier lending due to greater regulatory scrutiny.

Online lender Elevate Credit Inc., which started business last May, has since made $307.4 million in unsecured personal loans in the U.S. to borrowers with average credit scores between 580 and 625. The firm, based in Fort Worth, Texas, offers this type of loan in 15 states and charges fixed interest rates of 36% to 365%. However, interest-rate caps imposed by states such as New York and Maryland prevent it from making high-rate loans in some parts of the country.

“We believe there’s a big opportunity for not just us but a whole suite of new products to enter this space,” said Ken Rees, chief executive officer of Elevate. He was previously the CEO of Think Finance Inc., a former payday lender that is now a technology provider to the online-loan industry. Elevate was spun off from Think Finance in 2014.
ENLARGE

A competing online lender, San Francisco-based LendUp, has received more than $20 million in funding from venture-capital firms, including Google Ventures.

Many lenders said they are making loans only to borrowers at the top end of the subprime credit-score range, and they are reviewing additional borrower history such as bank-account transactions and income. This type of due diligence wasn’t as thorough with some lenders in the past.

Car loans account for most of the increase in overall subprime lending. Subprime car-loan originations totaled $129.5 billion during the first 11 months of 2014, or 68% of consumer subprime-loan volume, according to Equifax.

After declining for the past three years, overall delinquency rates for car loans are rising, according to the New York Fed report. Some economists and consumer advocates are concerned that auto-lending practices are too risky and could result in more loan defaults.

While some large banks have regained an appetite for subprime car loans, most are resisting expanding into other types of subprime lending. Cars are relatively easy assets to repossess when a borrower stops paying the loan. By contrast, when borrowers default on unsecured personal loans and credit cards, it is difficult or impossible for a lender to recover its losses.

Another startup lender catering to subprime borrowers was founded by Raj Date, the former No. 2 official at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Mr. Date’s firm, Washington-based Fenway Summer LLC, in January reached a deal with Louisville, Ky.-based Republic Bancorp Inc. to offer a credit card that is being pitched as a more affordable alternative to payday loans, which are short-term loans that often charge triple-digit interest rates.

The Build Card, which is being rolled out later this year, will charge an annualized interest rate of 25% to 30% and will cap borrowers’ initial credit lines at $500, with the chance to increase as borrowers pay back their debts.

Glenn Hill, a 49-year-old dispatcher for an elevator company in the San Francisco Bay Area, said he signed up last month for a $7,500 four-year personal loan at a rate of 30% with Springleaf Holdings Inc. in Evansville, Ind., which lends to subprime borrowers.

Mr. Hill said he used the loan to pay off a higher interest-rate loan he had taken out from another lender a few years ago, as well as to pay for everyday bills. “It was either this or start defaulting on things,” he said. “It was just take this loan and pray for the best.”

Write to Alan Zibel at alan.zibel@wsj.com and AnnaMaria Andriotis at AnnaMaria.Andriotis@wsj.com
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Hilsenrath on Minutes

Via WSJ:
By
Jon Hilsenrath
Feb. 18, 2015 2:00 p.m. ET
0 COMMENTS

Federal Reserve officials held detailed discussions in January on the timing and pace of interest-rate increases and their strategy for communicating their next moves, though they stopped short of agreeing to specific plans, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.

As part of these discussions, Fed staff gave a presentation that laid out the pros and cons of delay versus moving quickly, according to minutes of the Jan. 27-28 policy meeting.

Delay could lead to a buildup of inflation or financial-stability risks while moving quickly could choke off the recovery, officials noted, without specifying the time frame. During that discussion many Fed officials said they were inclined to wait, according to the minutes, though some officials noted the central bank had already waited a long time “and that it might be appropriate to begin policy firming in the near term.”

Fed officials also discussed with some trepidation how to remove from their policy statement an assurance that they would be patient before moving rates higher. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has said that as long as the patient assurance is in the statement, the Fed doesn’t anticipate moving for the next two policy meetings.

“Some [officials] expressed the concern that financial markets might overreact, resulting in undesirably tight financial conditions,” the minutes said.

The minutes suggest Fed officials have entered a new period of debate and planning as they eye interest-rate increases later this year, though they don’t clearly indicate that officials have agreed on a plan for when to move, how quickly they would raise rates once they begin or how best to communicate their plans.

The economic backdrop presents a challenge. Inflation is running below the Fed’s 2% goal and the global economy is soft, developments the Fed discussed at length. At the same time, the U.S. job market is improving and officials believe slack in the economy is diminished.

The minutes also showed detailed discussions on the mechanics of how to manage interest rates once they start. Among their considerations: Expansion of a program known as “overnight reverse repos,” in which the central bank trades with money market mutual funds and other non-bank financial-services companies to manage interest rates.

“Most meeting participants indicated that a sizable ON RRP cap would be appropriate to support policy implementation at the time of liftoff,” the minutes said, referring to an abbreviation for overnight reverse repos.

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Overnight Flows

Dealers who graciously send me info report that they observe better buying by end users overnight. Real money in Asia bought 10s and 30s and an eclectic group of central bank buyers bought 2s and 3s. One dealer noted that there was duration floating around and observed that there was chunky selling of 10s in the screens at the 2 .12 level.

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FX

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:

Sterling Shines

– Strong employment and earnings data in the UK lifted sterling to the upper end of its recent range near $1.5450
– Regarding the FOMC minutes, we don’t see the reference to international developments as a caveat to mid-year tightening
– While European negotiations with the new Greek government have yet to conclude, the noises are in the right direction
– Inflation in South Africa decelerated for the third consecutive month, while Malaysia printed the lowest CPI in five years; Mexico releases its inflation report today

Price action:  The dollar is broadly firmer against the majors.  The main exception is sterling, which is seeing support from more hawkish than expected BOE minutes and firm UK labor market data.  Cable is testing the recent high near $1.5440 but so far has been unable to break above, while the euro is trading back below $1.14.  Dollar/yen is holding above 119.  EM currencies are mostly weaker.  RUB is outperforming, while MYR, IDR, and KRW are underperforming.  The ringgit was hurt by a much lower than expected CPI report, which underscores our belief that Bank Negara will soon join the easing parade.  MSCI Asia Pacific is up 0.6%, boosted by a 1.2% gain in the Nikkei.  Euro Stoxx 600 is up 0.7% near midday, while S&P futures are pointing to a lower open from yesterday’s record high close of 2100.    

• Strong employment and earnings data in the UK lifted sterling to the upper end of its recent range near $1.5450.  A break would quickly target the $1.5500-$1.5600 area.  The claimant count fell by 38.6k, which is about 50% more than the consensus expected, and the December decline was revised to 35.8k from 29.7k.  The unemployment rate fell to a new cyclical low of 5.7% (ILO measure).  Earnings growth, reported with an extra month lag, rose 2.1% at a year-over-year pace in Q4 14.  The consensus was for a 1.7% increase.  The jump in earnings comes as the BOE minutes highlighted the expected upward pressure on earnings (toward 4%) and the rise of a jump in inflation when the oil increase drops out.  
• There are two cautionary elements.  First, the increase in aggregate hours worked warns that productivity remains weak.  This speaks to the growth capacity of the UK economy.  Second, the labor market may be tightening, but the earnings growth was flattered by bonuses.  Excluding bonus, earnings growth actually slipped to 1.7% from 1.8%.  That said, there is probably more room for interest rate expectations to adjust, and that means upward pressure on UK rates, especially at the short end.  Gilt yields are also backing up, and at 1.81% today, the 10-year yield at its highest level this year.  This represents about a 50 bp increase since the Jan 30 low.  The FTSE was trading at seven year highs before the data.  The rise in yields appeared to have sapped the early upside momentum.  
• Sterling is easily the best performing currency today, gaining about 0.5% against the dollar.  The greenback is firmer against the other major currencies and most emerging market currencies.  There is a full slate of US economic reports today, including housing starts and permits, PPI, and industrial production.  However, these data points are unlikely to provide fresh trading incentives, outside of the headline effect.  
• Investors seem focused on the FOMC minutes that will be released later in the session.  The new twist to the FOMC statement was the reference to international developments.  Many participants read this as a caveat to the mid-year tightening story.  We are less convinced.  It is not that the reference to international developments was perfunctory, but given the European events, it was prudent.  At the same time, whatever concern there has likely eased.  Note that assuming a modest downward revision to US Q4 GDP (based on newer trade and inventory data), it appears that both Germany and Japan grew faster than the US in the last three months of 2014.  
• We also note that last month, the EU revised up its estimate for this year’s growth.  Earlier today, the BOJ, which left policy steady, upgraded its assessment of exports and industrial output.  The point is that the negative headwinds from abroad appear to have eased.  
• Meanwhile, while European negotiations with the new Greek government have yet to conclude, the noises are in the right direction.  Diplomacy is about nuances.  It appears that some agreement on extending loans, but not necessarily the so-called bailout program and conditions may be in the works.  To be sure, a new agreement may not resolve any of the substantial issues, but it would maintain the principle of the irreversibility of EMU and avoid an immediate crisis.  Greek bonds and stocks are higher, with bank shares outperforming the market.    
• Although the ECB rarely offers direct comments about ELA, media reports will be watched today for insight into the central bank’s review of Greece’s ELA.  With oversight authority over Greece’s largest banks, the ECB can know whether the banks suffer from a liquidity squeeze, which would still allow for ELA borrowing, or a solvency issue, for which ELA borrowing is not allowed.  Most likely ELA borrowing will be extended as the politicians hammer out some compromise.  Cutting Greece off would likely precipitate an existential crisis.  The ECB would not take this decision alone.
• News that Japan Post may buy Australia’s Toll Holdings for about AUD6.5 bln is failing to lend the Australian dollar much support.  The Aussie briefly rose above its 20-day moving average (~$.7820) today for the first time since January 21, but met offers in the $0.7830-40 area, which pushed it back into yesterday’s range.  That said, the market, which had been fairly confident of another rate cut next month, is less sure now.  Still, in the five sessions, the Aussie has rallied almost two cents.  Another push higher cannot be ruled out.  
• The New Zealand dollar is also consolidating its recent gains.  It rallied a little more than 5% against the US dollar since February 3.  The RBNZ played down any sense of urgency to reduce rates and milk prices have trended higher.  The Global Dairy Trade price index jumping 10% and the price of whole milk powder rising 13.7%  are being seen as confirmation that the low for milk prices is in place.
• Inflation in South Africa decelerated for the third consecutive month, Malaysia printed the lowest CPI in five years, and Mexico releases its inflation report later today.  CPI inflation in South Africa decelerated to 4.4% in January, from 5.9% October 2014.  However, core inflation remains elevated, rising slightly to 5.8% y/y.  Core inflation, along with the rapid decline in the currency will likely preclude any drastic moves by the SARB.  The bank took a hawkish tone at its January policy meeting, but we expect that to be gradually softened. Separately, inflation in Malaysia came in well below expectations at 1.0% in January, the lowest in five years.  Lower energy prices has felted into the transport price components and dragged the rate lower. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.25% in its next meeting, but today’s print open up a small risk of a dovish surprise.  If not, we do see eventual easing this year from Bank Negara.  USD/MYR is trading back above 3.62 and is on track to testing the recent cycle high near 3.6375.
• Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report.  According to the most recent minutes, Banco de Mexico has taken rate cuts off the table (for now).  We expect the inflation report to take a similar tone.  The weaker peso seems to be one of the key variables in their reaction function, and we believe it will help determine the timing of any action.  If MXN continues to weaken at this pace, it is possible that Banxico will hike before or around the same time the Fed does (June, in our view).  However, much depends on the underlying macro picture too, both domestically and globally.  For USD/MXN, support seen near 14.80 and then 14.50, resistance seen near 15.00 and then 15.15.

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What to Watch for Today

Via Bloomberg:

WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 13 (prior -9%)
* 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 1.070m (prior 1.089m)
* Housing Starts m/m, Jan., est. -1.7% (prior 4.4%)
* Building Permits, Jan., est. 1.069m (prior 1.032m,
revised 1.058m)
* Building Permits m/m, Jan., est. 0.9% (prior -1.9%,
revised 0.6%)
* Building Permits m/m, Jan., est. 0.9% (prior -1.9%,
revised 0.6%)</li></ul>
* 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, Jan., est. -0.4% (prior -0.3%,
revised -0.2%)
* PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.3%)
* PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior
0.1%)
* PPI Final Demand y/y, Jan., est. 0.3% (prior 1.1%)
* PPI Ex Food and Energy y/y, Jan., est. 2.0% (prior 2.1%)
* PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade y/y, Jan., est. 1.3% (prior
1.3%)
* PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade y/y, Jan., est. 1.3% (prior
1.3%)</li></ul>
* 9:15am: Industrial Production m/m, Jan., est. 0.3% (prior
-0.1%)
* Capacity Utilization, Jan., est. 79.9% (prior 79.7%)
* Manufacturing (SIC) Production, Jan., est. 0.4% (prior
0.3%)
* Manufacturing (SIC) Production, Jan., est. 0.4% (prior
0.3%)</li></ul>
* 4:00pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec. (prior $33.5b)
* Total Net TIC Flows. Dec. (prior -$6.3b)
* Total Net TIC Flows. Dec. (prior -$6.3b)</li></ul>
Central Banks
* 4:30am: Bank of England Minutes
* 2:00pm: FOMC Minutes, Jan. 27-28
* 5:00pm: Fed’s Powell speaks in New York
Supply
* 11:30am: U.S. to sell $40b 4W bills

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Not Heeding the Advice of Polonius

Household dent rose by $117 billion in Q4. However, the levels of delinquencies (loans past due more than 90 days) is also increasing. In the murky land of student loans 11.3 percent of loans are more than 90 days overdue. Check this on the state of the student loan program. It is ballooning the deficit.

Via the WSJ:

U.S. Economy
Americans Borrowing More, but Fissures Appear
Delinquencies climbed in auto and student lending. Overall debt rose $117 billion in 4th quarter
By
Neil Shah
Updated Feb. 17, 2015 5:05 p.m. ET

Americans are for the most part taking on new loans carefully, yet a rise in late payments on two fast-growing types of debt—auto and student loans—suggest some consumers could be getting in over their heads.
Delinquency rates on credit cards fell in the fourth quarter. ENLARGE
Delinquency rates on credit cards fell in the fourth quarter. Photo: Associated Press

Household debt—including mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and student loans—rose $117 billion from October to December to $11.8 trillion, according to figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Tuesday.

But more Americans fell behind on auto and student loans. The share of auto-loan debt 90 or more days overdue jumped to 3.5% last quarter, from 3.1%. A similar rate for student loans rose to 11.3% from 11.1%.

The figures show that, while Americans have made considerable progress fixing their postrecession finances and are now taking on new loans judiciously, some are struggling with auto and student loans, whose rapid growth recently has fueled concerns among economists. If more Americans run into trouble paying these debts, that could crimp their ability to make other purchases and form households, chilling the broader economy.

Natalie Phillips, 34 years old, has been struggling with an unmanageable student-debt load.

The Philadelphia mother of twins, who runs a small cleaning service, had around $120,000 in federal student loans, including penalties, at one point. Her monthly bills of $800 exceeded her monthly income. With the economy sluggish and business slow, Ms. Phillips fell behind on her student-loan payments, racking up late charges.

Just before Christmas, with the help of a credit counselor, she found a better plan for her payments, one that let her defer and knock off extra charges. But the debt issues have delayed one of her goals: to return to college and get her degree. “I wasn’t able to because of this debt,” said Ms. Phillips, who had to leave school before graduating.

All told, American households’ overall borrowing tab of $11.8 trillion remains 7% below its 2008 peak of $12.7 trillion, even before adjusting for inflation.

In a good sign, America’s increased borrowing has been broad-based: Mortgage balances—the bulk of U.S. household debt—edged up $39 billion to $8.2 trillion. New mortgage loans, including refinanced mortgages, totaled $355 billion last quarter, up $18 billion from the previous quarter—a sign that, slowly, Americans are borrowing to buy homes again.

Auto-loan balances grew $21 billion to $955 billion, and credit-card balances increased $20 billion to $700 billion. Student-loan debt—the fastest-growing category—rose $31 billion to $1.2 trillion.

A windfall from lower gasoline prices has allowed more Americans to save and pay off debt. Delinquency rates for mortgages and credit cards fell in the fourth quarter.

Yet the New York Fed data fuel concerns that the recent boom in issuance of auto loans, especially to Americans with weaker credit histories, along with a steady rise in student-loan debt, is resulting in an increase in struggling borrowers.

The rise in late auto-loan payments is “something we’re keeping an eye on,” said Randy Hopper, vice president of credit cards at Navy Federal Credit Union, which has roughly 2 million credit-card accounts.

Mr. Hopper said that, unlike auto loans, seriously late payments on credit cards are at their lowest levels in years, even though credit-card borrowings have risen substantially.

Yet late payments on auto loans are rising for two reasons.

First, auto lenders have taken on riskier business over the past year, doling out more credit to high-risk subprime borrowers—with some of these loans packaged into subprime auto securities.

Second, a pickup in auto-loan delinquencies is a somewhat natural consequence of the jump in overall auto lending over the past four years, Mr. Hopper said.

More car loans could fall into the seriously late category in coming quarters. Issuance of auto loans remains robust: There were $102 billion in new loans last quarter, down only slightly from the third quarter, when issuance hit a nine-year high. And nearly $20 billion in auto loans were “newly” delinquent last quarter—30 or more days late—the highest since the third quarter of 2009.

Meanwhile, student-loan debt balances rose $77 billion just last year. Nearly $30 billion in student loans were newly delinquent last quarter, up from $27 billion in the second quarter.

“The increasing trend in student-loan balances and delinquencies is concerning,” said Donghoon Lee, a New York Fed researcher.

Unlike other types of consumer debt, education loans are hard to discharge in bankruptcy—making them more of a potential drag on a borrower’s future consumer behavior.

Write to Neil Shah at neil.shah@wsj.com
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Fibonacci Number

In the spring and summer of 2013 the investment grade 10 year note very rapidly crashed from about 1.60 in May and traded to a high yield of 3.00 around Labor Day in September 2013. We followed a long and winding road  but essentially retraced the famous taper tantrum when we recently touched 1.64 on 10s.

Given the recent carnage which the market has suffered I am looking for a point that might hold or support the 10 year note. If we take the move from 3 percent to 1.64 that is 136 basis points. If I apply the Fibonacci 38 percent to that I get 51 basis points. That would place support close to here at 2.15 percent.

That advice is from a stopped out long who got long last week on bond auction day and did the gradual stop out. I sold the last batch this morning when 10s could not hold the 2.05 level.

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Regime Change

Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:

The chart shows the 5-30s curve vs. the Euro and the deflation
trade that has driven the Euro lower as the market priced in ECB
QE has also been reflected in the US curve flattening through a
combination of lower long yields and US rate hikes sporadically
being priced in. Now that long rates have spiked aggressively
higher since month-end, the curve has steepened slightly as the
Euro has attempted to rally. Oil prices also squeezed sharply
higher, such that a reflation trade following ECB QE action has
followed a similar pattern to what followed the BOJ as Taper
talk picked up within weeks of QQE being announced. Just as the
Euro has not broken materially higher, the curve so far is in  a
range and near-term flattening remains likely into Yellen. But
rates are signalling a possible regime shift over coming months.

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New Issue Corps Today

Via Bloomberg:

IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today
2015-02-17 15:01:00.2 GMT

By Greg Chang
(Bloomberg) — The following is a list of new issues
expected to price today:
* Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. $TBD A1/A+
* Tap of 2018 FRN, tap of 2.45% 1/2020
* IPT 2018 FRN 3mL +55-58, 2.45% 1/2020 +95 area
* Denoms: $250k x $1k
* Books: Barclays, C, GS, JPM, SMBC Nikko
* Books: Barclays, C, GS, JPM, SMBC Nikko</li></ul>
* AmerisourceBergen $benchmark Baa2/A-
* 10Y, 30Y
* IPT 10Y +150 area, 30Y +185 area
* Books: BofAML, WFS
* Books: BofAML, WFS</li></ul>
* BNZ International Funding $benchmark Aa3/AA-
* 3Y; 144A/Reg S Global
* IPT +90 area
* Denoms: $250k x $1k
* Books: C, NAB, RBC
* Books: C, NAB, RBC</li></ul>
* Ryder System $400m (no grow) Baa1/BBB
* 5Y
* IPT +125 area
* Books:BofAML, BNP, MIZ, RBC
* Books:BofAML, BNP, MIZ, RBC</li></ul>

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Empire Manufacturing Survey

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:

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