Archive for December, 2016

Problems in China

Monday, December 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: China’s Stocks, Bonds, Yuan Slump in Unison on Liquidity Concern Bloomberg News December 12, 2016 — 3:20 AM EST Shanghai Composite Index retreats most in six months One-year sovereign debt yield increases 15 basis points Unease is once again permeating China’s financial markets. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 2.5 percent at the close, ...

More FX

Monday, December 12th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Drivers for the Week Ahead The FOMC meeting is the last big event of the year for investors The Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank hold policy meetings; none are likely to alter policy Given last week's ECB ...

Early FX

Monday, December 12th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h11f12644,194c4423,194c4424&p1=136122&p2=6126320e1f3ab288c34430954b4a8d32> I do hope there aren't short-covering cannon to the left and the right of this market.... Bloomberg puts the (market-implied) odds of a 25bp Fed rate hike this week at 92% and the odds of a 50bp hike at 8%. It's fair to say that a ...

Japanese Dilemna

Sunday, December 11th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Takashi Nakamichi Updated Dec. 11, 2016 7:43 p.m. ET 2 COMMENTS One of central banking’s most aggressive easers—the Bank of Japan—may soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007. The latest buzz in Japanese monetary-policy circles is that the BOJ may have to lift the ...

Good News for Mercedes Benz of Greenwich

Sunday, December 11th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: U.S. Limits on Wall Street Bonuses Appear Doomed Ahead of Trump by Jesse Hamilton and Benjamin Bain December 9, 2016 — 12:59 PM EST December 9, 2016 — 12:59 PM EST Obscure regulator of credit unions said to be hurdle for rules New restrictions clash with Trump pledge to rip up Dodd-Frank For years the ...

Debating the Natural Rate

Sunday, December 11th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Jason Douglas and Jon Sindreu Dec. 11, 2016 12:17 p.m. ET   In steering their economies, central bankers are guided by a mysterious, hidden interest rate that critics say could be a figment of their imagination. Major central banks across the globe have taken short-term policy rates to record lows ...

Very Long Bonds

Monday, December 5th, 2016

Via Blomberg: Treasury May Extend Maturity Before Ultra Bond Debut: Wrightson 2016-12-05 19:30:14.718 GMT By Alexandra Harris (Bloomberg) -- Treasury can increase 10Y, 30Y auctions while it works out the specifics of 50Y or 70Y offerings to get a head start on extending the average maturity of its debt, Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall says in note. * ...

No Wheelbarrows Needed Here

Monday, December 5th, 2016

An excerpt from the morning note of Chris Low at FTN Financial: Venezuela, whose bold experiment with Bolivaran Socialism has resulted in terrible shortages and such rampant inflation that people have ditched wallets in favor of bags of cash and storekeepers—when they have anything to sell—have taken to weighing notes rather ...