Archive for December, 2016

Au(ch)

Wednesday, December 14th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Gold Beaten Down as Fed’s Rate-Hike Countdown Enters Final Hours by Ranjeetha Pakiam December 13, 2016, 8:45 PM EST December 14, 2016, 1:00 AM EST Fed seen boosting interest rates for the first time this year Bullion is worst commodity performer after sugar this quarter Gold traded near a 10-month low ...

Credit Expands in China

Wednesday, December 14th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: China Credit Expands Most Since March as New Lending Rebounds Bloomberg News December 14, 2016, 2:06 AM EST December 14, 2016, 2:44 AM EST Aggregate financing rose to 1.74 trillion yuan in November Credit supply remains robust even amid property market curbs China’s broadest measure of new lending jumped the ...

Early FX

Wednesday, December 14th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at Socgen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h11f630f4,195441e1,195441e2&p1=136122&p2=580282107bcaca0c02594e984aa15be3> I, like the FOMC, am doing everything in slow motion tbhis morning. This time next year, FOMC rate hike, take 3?? A year ago, markets expected the Fed Funds rate to be in a 0.75-1% range by now. By this evening, they are likely to have crawled ...

More FX

Tuesday, December 13th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Narrowly Mixed Dollar Conceals Resilience China data suggest the economy is finding better traction European economic data featured Italian IP, German CPI and ZEW, and UK prices The news stream in North America will be subdued today, with only US import prices on ...

Biggest S and P Trade of Year

Tuesday, December 13th, 2016

The WSJ details a purchase of 16,000 S and P minis last Wednesday (it wasnt me as I deal in one lots) which they speculate was a hedge of a derivative trade. Via the WSJ: By Alexander Osipovich Updated Dec. 12, 2016 10:16 p.m. ET   A $1.8 billion futures trade that fueled ...

From Surplus to Deficit

Tuesday, December 13th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: OPEC Deal Will Create Oil-Supply Deficit in First Half, IEA Says by Grant Smith December 13, 2016, 4:00 AM EST Stockpiles to shrink by 600,000 barrels a day as producers cut Russia to gradually implement the reduction pledged on Dec. 10 Global oil markets will swing from surplus to deficit in the ...

Whiff of Inflation in UK

Tuesday, December 13th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: U.K. inflation accelerated more than economists forecast in November, boosted by prices for clothing and gasoline. The jump to 1.2 percent from 0.9 percent in October means consumer prices are rising at the fastest pace since October 2014. Economists had anticipated an increase to 1.1 percent. The latest data from the ...

Early FX

Tuesday, December 13th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: Solid Chinese data overnight have done nothing to quell concerns about the unsustainable nature of the Chinese rebound, but they have underpinned risk sentiment in afternoon Asian trading. USD/JPY isn't back up to yesterday morning's euphoric high above 116, but at least it's back to yesterday's ...

More on Very Long Bonds

Monday, December 12th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: §  There has been increasing chatter about Treasury issuing bonds with a maturity greater than 30yr. It would help fund higher deficits, help extend the average maturity of the debt and take advantage of the current low levels of term premium. It could also allow Treasury to tap into ...

Trading the VIX

Monday, December 12th, 2016

Via the WSJ: The Volatility Paradox: Calm Markets but Soaring ‘Fear Gauge’ Trading Investors look to make quick profits during isolated periods of market tumult By Gunjan Banerji Dec. 11, 2016 7:00 a.m. ET   Trading in volatility-linked investments set records in 2016 during a mostly calm year in markets, underscoring the popularity of ...