Archive for December, 2016

Ursine Sentiment Engulfs Yuan

Tuesday, December 20th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Yuan Bears Strike as Capital Outflows Override PBOC’s Support Bloomberg News December 20, 2016, 4:00 PM EST The currency is set for its biggest annual plunge since 1994 Forwards and options show traders see more losses ahead China’s renewed efforts to curb declines in its currency are doing little to dissuade ...

Rough Patch for Auto Workers

Tuesday, December 20th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: GM and Fiat Chrysler Cut Jobs as Sales Swing Toward SUVs by David Welch and Jamie Butters December 20, 2016, 7:51 PM EST Seven plants to trim output of models including Chevy Cruze SUVs like Chevy’s Trax ‘killing it’ at expense of sedans For unionized auto workers, even amid a booming U.S. market, the ...

Political Economy

Tuesday, December 20th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Bond Investors Now Losing Most Sleep Over Rising Populism by Natasha Doff December 20, 2016, 8:13 AM EST December 20, 2016, 12:01 PM EST Politics is the biggest concern for 31% in BofAML’s survey Investors have “tweaked porfolios” for a more populist worl   Forget Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and rising ...

Problems in China

Sunday, December 18th, 2016

Via WSJ: Bond Selloff Shows Risks of China’s Efforts to Restrain Credit Central bank’s tightening of short-term credit led to sharp market drops, forcing authorities to reverse course   By John Lyons and Rachel Rosenthal Dec. 18, 2016 7:42 p.m. ET   China’s newly troubled bond market is showing how difficult it will be for Beijing ...

FX

Friday, December 16th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of the Weekend, Dollar Consolidates Gains The dollar is consolidating today and the news stream is light Greek tensions flared up this week, but appear to be subsiding into the weekend The US report November housing starts Central Bank of ...

Swap Spreads

Thursday, December 15th, 2016

This is an interesting piece on 30 year swap spreads by my friend and former colleague Steve Liddy. I am reproducing the graphs which he includes but they do not translate well to my low rent retired guy hobby blog. That is entirely my fault and not his.   Via Steve Liddy: When ...

FX

Thursday, December 15th, 2016

Via Mark Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Greenback Extends Gains on Back of Fed The Federal Reserve delivered the widely expected hike yesterday; Yellen made two important points that ought not to be lost The SNB kept policy steady and repeated its usual threat to intervene; the Norges Bank surprised many ...

Irrational Exuberance Redux

Wednesday, December 14th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The DJIA 14-day RSI touched 85 earlier this morning, the highest 14-day RSI since late November 1996. Interestingly, Former Fed Chair Greenspan discussed “irrational exuberance” in a speech delivered December 5, 1996, about 10 days after that high in the 14-day RSI.

Data Points Analyzed

Wednesday, December 14th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: US: Downbeat November Retail Sales Balanced By Firming Producer Price Pressures   ·         Retail sales registered a weak 0.1% increase in November, missing expectations for a 0.3% rise. Paired with downward revisions to October, the figures leaving Q4 real consumer spending tracking on a more downbeat note though still consistent ...

Gundlach Posits 3 Percent 10 year ion 2017

Wednesday, December 14th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Gundlach Says 10-Year Treasuries Topping 3% Would Punish Markets by John Gittelsohn December 13, 2016, 6:46 PM EST Manager says U.S. stocks, bonds and housing could suffer DoubleLine fund has beaten 90% of peers over last three years Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, said interest rates may climb to ...