Archive for November, 2016

Retail Sales Review

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: US: Robust Retail Sales Give the Fed Additional Confidence to Move in December ·         Retail sales increased by 0.8% m/m in October, surpassing the market consensus for a more moderate 0.6% m/m gain. The details were equally strong, with gains in 11 of the 13 major subcomponents while core retail ...

Treasury Market Musings

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

The Long Bond continue to outperform its yield curve cousins. At the close of business last Thursday I had marked 5s 30s at 140.3. In late trading yesterday I marked it at 134.7 and this morning it rests at 131.0. Similarly, 10s 30s closed last week at 81.1 and opened ...

Low Rates and Inequality

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Mark Carney said arguments by politicians that loose monetary policies in the U.K. and elsewhere have widened inequality miss the mark. “The focus on monetary policy is a massive deflection exercise,” the BOE governor told lawmakers at a Parliamentary hearing in London on Tuesday. “It’s very important to distinguish the ...

Positive Yields

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

The 10 year JGB traded above zero for the first time in nearly two months. Via WSJ: By Hiroyuki Kachi Updated Nov. 15, 2016 2:02 a.m. ET 0 COMMENTS TOKYO—The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose above zero on Tuesday for the first time since Sept. 21, with Japan joining ...

Very Busy Corporate Bond Day Yesterday

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: 2nd Highest Monday Volume on Record; GS, MS Led 2016-11-15 10:38:33.954 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $18.2b vs $19.8b Thursday, $14.1b the previous Monday. It was the 2nd highest Monday session since Nov. 2005. * 10-DMA $16.9b; 10-Monday moving avg $14.3b * 144a trading ...

Credit Pipeline

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: 2 Set to Price; Heavy Issuance Expected 2016-11-15 10:31:11.480 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Expected to price today: * Westpac Banking Corp (WSTP) A3/BBB+. to price $benchmark Subordinated 15/NC10, via managers BAML/C/JPM/MS; IPT +237.5 area * Export Development Canada (EDC) Aaa/AAA, to price $500m 144a/Reg-S 4Y FRN, via BNP/Barc/DB; IPT 3ML +13 area LATEST ...

FX

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Investors Catch Breath, Markets Consolidate After a dramatic run since the US election, the capital markets are consolidating today October UK CPI rose 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected; Italy surprised with 0.3% growth in Q3 The most important data for the US is the ...

Long Time Bond Bull Sees Trump Premium Driving 10s to 2.50

Monday, November 14th, 2016

He also sees Trump's plan failing to stimulate economy and a 1.35 percent 110 year at end of 2017. Via Bloomberg: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will hit levels not seen since 2014 before President-elect Donald Trump's first 100 days in office are up, says HSBC Bank PLC Global Head of Fixed ...

Overnight Preview

Monday, November 14th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: The Bberg consensus expects FDI for October to be up 2.5% YOY versus 1.2% YOY in September, although it would be below the 4.2% gain reported, on average, for the first 9 months of the year. INDIA: Exports rose 4.6% YOY in September, the ...

FX

Monday, November 14th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Forces of Movement The anticipation of fiscal stimulus and Fed hikes propels the US dollar higher Emerging markets, and developed bonds are out of favor High frequency economic data is of less consequence than prior to the US election The new week has begun off ...