Archive for November, 2016

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Volume Remains High; Issuance Will Be Focus Today 2016-11-17 10:41:48.24 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $19.2b vs $20.3b Tuesday, $20.2b last Wednesday. * 14th highest of any Wednesday since Nov. 2005 when TRACE volume count began * Tuesday’s $20.3b was 5th highest Tuesday on ...

BOJ Fires Warning Shot at Bond Bears

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Benchmark yields had climbed at fastest pace since August 10-year touched 0.035%, the first time since mid-February The Bank of Japan fired a warning shot at the government bond market Thursday, announcing its first offer to buy an unlimited amount of securities to maintain its yield-curve target. The so-called fixed-rate operation ...

Trump Advisers Favor Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Trump Allies Urge Fed to Cut Balance Sheet and Revive Credit (1) 2016-11-16 12:27:08.216 GMT By Rich Miller (Bloomberg) -- Bond investors may have another reason to worry after Donald Trump’s election last week: Some of his allies are not fans of the Federal Reserve’s big balance sheet of bonds and want the central bank ...

China Holdings of Treasuries Slide

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: China's U.S. Treasuries Holdings Decline Biggest holder of American govt debt held $1.16 Tln in Sept. Japanese holdings fell for second straight month to $1.14 Tln China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined to the lowest level in four years, as the world’s second-largest economy runs down its reserves to support ...

Can President Trump Remake the Fed

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Interesting article by Professor Tim Duy: What a Trump-Branded Federal Reserve Might Look Like An Austrian (economist) in the White House. Timothy A Duy TimDuy November 16, 2016 — 6:00 AM EST President-elect Donald Trump has the opportunity to remake the Federal Reserve. Or does he? And if he does, what would ...

PPI/CPI

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The PPI was much weaker than expected in October, as the headline figure was flat and the core component posted a 0.2% decline.  However, when I delved into the nitty-gritty details, it was hard to put a finger on any meaningful trends in the ...

IP Review

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:: Industrial production was flat in October, weaker than expected.  Manufacturing output advanced by 0.2%, not far from expectations, but a 2.6% drop in utilities, presumably due to warmer-than-usual weather, dragged the aggregate down.  There were big offsetting revisions (up in August and down in ...

Credit Angst in China

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: November 15, 2016 — 4:00 PM EST Broad loan-to-deposit ratio at 80% for top 50 China banks: S&P China’s credit reliance could worsen NPL problem, Fitch says Add another credit indicator to the financial warning signs flashing in China. The adjusted loan-to-deposit ratio, which includes a range of off-balance sheet items ...

Commercial Real Estate Angst

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Peter Grant Updated Nov. 15, 2016 2:44 p.m. ET 1 Defaults are rising in a key corner of the commercial real-estate debt market just as borrowing costs are set to jump, raising the likelihood of a slowdown of the $11 trillion U.S. commercial property sector in 2017. A financial ...

GDP Now

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Latest forecast from FRB Atlanta: Latest forecast: 3.3 percent — November 15, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on November 15, up from 3.1 percent on November 9. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures ...