Archive for November, 2016

Alleviating a Global Dollar Shortage

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via Luke Kawa at Bloomberg: Why the Federal Reserve Must Become the World's 'Dealer of Last Resort' The U.S. central bank could be left holding an elephant-sized bag as a global dollar-shortage bites. Luke Kawa LJKawa November 21, 2016 — 3:14 AM EST As President-elect Donald Trump threatens to turn away from ...

Will OPEC Cut Output?

Sunday, November 20th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Saudis seek collective curbs under ‘Four Pillar’ approach Iran and Iraq pose challenge, Russia participation in question OPEC says it’s close to a deal to cut oil output for the first time since 2008, a move that may halt a 2 1/2-year price slump. The actions of individual member ...

Trump Trade and Term Premium

Sunday, November 20th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Justin Lahart Nov. 20, 2016 12:18 p.m. ET 5 COMMENTS Whatever President-elect Donald Trump’s policies bring about, the Treasury market’s fever has finally broken. In the short time since Election Day, long-term Treasurys have experienced their swiftest setback in over seven years, with prices tumbling and yields shooting higher. ...

Ten Year TIPS Breakevens at 2015 Levels

Saturday, November 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Bond Traders Sound Inflation Alarm Amid Worst Rout Since 2001 Yun Li November 19, 2016 — 12:01 AM EST Ten-year breakeven rate reaches highest level since 2015 Long end of yield curve is ‘dangerous’: BlackRock’s Rieder The rout in the fixed-income universe deepened into the worst in 15 years as traders sounded ...

Issue Long Term Debt

Saturday, November 19th, 2016

Says Randall Forsyth at Barron's: By Randall W. Forsyth November 19, 2016   As Donald J. Trump attempts to assemble his cabinet, he can only look with envy on George Washington, who could tap such towering figures as Thomas Jefferson as secretary of state and Alexander Hamilton as secretary of the Treasury. Long before the ...

Global Trade Slowing

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Until he takes office in January, President-elect Donald Trump won’t be able to follow through on his pledges to scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, or penalize Chinese imports. Even without him, protectionism is rising, and world trade is slowing. Responding to an outcry from ...

Abbot Lab Pricing

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: LAUNCH: Abbott Laboratories $15.1b Debt Offering in 6 Parts 2016-11-17 19:42:20.999 GMT By Lisa Loray (Bloomberg) -- Total deal size $15.1b across 6 tranches. * Tranches (Guidance, IPT): * $2.85b 3Y (11/22/2019) at +105 * +110a, +120a * $2.85b 5Y (11/30/2021) at +120 * +125a, +135a * $1.5b 7Y (11/30/2023) at +140 * +145a, +155a * $3b 10Y (11/30/2026) at ...

GDP Now

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

It looks as though Obamanomics really starting to work! Via FRBAtlanta: Latest forecast: 3.6 percent — November 17, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 3.6 percent on November 17, up from 3.3 percent on November 15. The forecast of ...

Chunky Corporate Deal

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: NEW DEAL: Abbott Laboratories $15.1b; 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y 2016-11-17 13:49:33.937 GMT By Brian Smith (Bloomberg) -- Expected to price today; deal size $15.1b will not grow. * IPT: * 3Y (11/22/2019): +120a * 5Y (11/30/2021): +135a * 7Y (11/30/2023): +155a * 10Y (11/30/2026): +170a * 20Y (11/30/2036): +190a * 30Y (11/30/2046): +205a * Issuer: Abbott Laboratories (ABT) * Expected ...

Yellen Analysis

Thursday, November 17th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Chair Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee was very basic and workmanlike.  She repeated a lot of the main themes that she has explored this year as well as reiterating the guidance from the last few FOMC statements that the case for a ...