Archive for October, 2016

Expensive Protection

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Joseph Ciolli JoeCiolli October 12, 2016 — 5:00 AM EDT Updated on October 12, 2016 — 9:58 AM EDT     Anxiety may have been hard to locate in the U.S. equity market before yesterday. But that didn’t mean it wasn’t there. One measure of expected turbulence, the relative cost of options that pay when stocks ...

Overnight Preview

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: Over the next week, the Bberg consensus expects the monetary report will show continued strength in Aggregate Financing at CNY1,390bn versus a solid CNY1,469.7bn in August. The improvement would likely reflect solid loan growth as fiscal stimulus takes hold. Over the next two ...

Three Year Note Preview

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen: We are apprehensive about this morning’s $24 bn 3-year auction and see the risk skewed toward a small tail.  Our logic is straightforward; net new issuance is the highest for this trio since December, technicals are bearish, the sector sees little near-term technical support, and the holiday could ...

Surfeit of Petroleum

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via Associated Press: OPEC Output Rises, Complicating Cartel's Price-boosting Plan 2016-10-11 17:35:49.747 GMT By ANGELA CHARLTON Paris (AP) -- Oil production from OPEC nations hit a record last month, according to an international energy group, highlighting the cartel's challenge in trimming output to drive up prices. The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that production from the Organization of the ...

FX

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: May Concedes to Parliament, Sterling Rises after Pounding News that UK Prime Minister May has accepted that Parliament should vote on her plan for exiting the EU stopped sterling's headlong slide The euro is grinding lower, and the main driver seems to be the ...

Is Portugal on Verge of Another Debt Crisis?

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Patricia Kowsmann Oct. 11, 2016 4:21 p.m. ET   LISBON—With his company’s pottery selling briskly, Joaquim Beato, president of Molde Faianças SA, said ideally he would plow some of the profit into research and new-product development. Instead the company won’t spend a single euro. Mr. Beato said he worries the ...

Oil Price Crash Turns Texas Into Economic Depressant

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Erin Ailworth and Ben Leubsdorf Oct. 12, 2016 5:30 a.m. ET   HOUSTON—Texas helped lead the U.S. out of recession, thanks in part to the shale drilling revolution. But after more than two years of slumping oil prices, the state is now a sore spot for the national economy. Petroleum prosperity helped ...

German Banking Problems

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Todd Buell Updated Oct. 12, 2016 5:42 a.m. ET 0 COMMENTS FRANKFURT—Germany may be Europe’s economic and political powerhouse, but you wouldn’t know it from its banks. Deutsche Bank AG , Germany’s largest lender, is struggling with a litany of problems. It faces a multibillion-dollar settlement with the U.S. Justice Department over ...

FX

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h1181d1a3,18974d39,18974d3a&p1=136122&p2=83bea6fc1ba926a276ec8308dc9d2273> Huge short positions and a consensus that sterling is doomed finally delivered a short-covering rally overnight. Labour are staging a commons debate today asking for MPs to have the right to scrutinise the government's plans to leave the EU and newswire reports last night suggest PM ...

Fed Minutes

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Fed watchers looking to tally hike support among non-voters Critical debate likely to center on labor market, inflation Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting could illuminate the degree of pressure Chair Janet Yellen faced from officials eager to raise interest rates, insights that could help guide expectations on the ...