Archive for October, 2016

Not the Stuff That Fed Tightenings Are Made Of

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via Federal Reserve Atlanta: Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — October 14, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 1.9 percent on October 14, down from 2.1 percent on October 7. The forecast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ...

PPI and CPI

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The PPI was firmer than I had expected in September, rising by 0.3% total and 0.2% core (in both cases, one tenth above consensus and two tenths above my estimates).  As you know, there are few categories where the PPI numbers correlate well with ...

Retail Sales Review

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: US: Core Retail Sales Miss Masks Positive Details ·         September retail sales rose 0.6%, in line with consensus expectations, while the August drop was revised up to -0.2% (previously reported -0.3%). Excluding autos and gas, retail sales rose a solid 0.3%, also in line with expectation, while the control group ...

FX

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Ahead of the US retail sales report, the main economic news has been Chinese prices, where the surprise was on the upside From the Fed, Yellen and Rosengren speak at a Boston Fed Conference Singapore reported advance Q3 GDP growth at 0.6% y/y; ...

Bank Lending to Business Stalls in Q3

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Rachel Louise Ensign Updated Oct. 13, 2016 3:52 p.m. ET Business lending abruptly downshifted in the third quarter, a puzzling move that may weigh on upcoming bank earnings. For some time, business loans, also known as commercial and industrial loans, have been one bright spot for otherwise growth-starved banks, both large ...

Welcome Whiff of Inflation in China

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: PPI rose 0.1% from year earlier, first gain since January 2012 CPI accelerates in sign domestic demand is holding firm China’s factory-gate prices rose for the first time since 2012, relieving a source of global disinflationary pressure and indicating further stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy. Key Points Producer-price index ...

Some FX

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: The world still in a spin, as the man wo sounded as though he had a permanently sore throats all those years ago. Sterling, of course, isn't so much in a spin as in a dive. Tombstoning, FX style. A switch from a necessary and ultimately ...

Credit Pipeline

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Via Bob Elson at Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: EDC to Price Global 5Y 2016-10-14 09:24:53.860 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Expected to price today: * Export Development Canada (EDC) Aaa/AAA, to price $1b Global 5Y, via managers Barc/CA/HSBC/TD; guidance MS +21 area LATEST UPDATES: * Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KOHNPW) Aa2/AA, mandates BNP/C for investor meetings Oct. ...

Claims Data

Thursday, October 13th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Initial jobless claims continued to surprise to the downside, plumbing depths not seen in a very long time.  Initial claims were unchanged in the week ended October 8 at a downwardly-revised level of 246,000, the lowest reading since 1973.  The four-week average broke below ...

FX

Thursday, October 13th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Edges Higher Even as US Rates Soften The dollar's gains against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies are being attributed to the FOMC minutes The main news today has been China's trade balance The US reports import prices and initial ...