Archive for October, 2016
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Interesting article by John Fernald of the Research Department of the San Francisco Fed. He writes that the New Normal means real GDP growth between 1.5 and 1.75 percent. The result will be lower wages, less growth in tax revenue and a lower neutral funds rate. Here is an excerpt ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on San Francisco Fed On Slow Growth as the New Normal
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
CHINA: Over the next week, the Bberg consensus expects the monetary report will show continued strength in Aggregate Financing at CNY1,390bn versus a solid CNY1,469.7bn in August. The improvement would likely reflect solid loan growth as fiscal stimulus takes hold.
AUSTRALIA: Reflecting stabilization of growth ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Preview
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Saudi Arabia will soon visit the markets with a huge bond issue. This Bloomberg story highlights the risk inherent in that issuance ( to investors) as enumerated in the prospectus.
Via Bloomberg:
Four Highlights From Saudi Arabia’s 220-Page Bond Prospectus
2016-10-11 14:37:00.273 GMT
By Matthew Martin and Anthony DiPaola
(Bloomberg) -- As Saudi Arabia prepares ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Saudi Arabia Finances
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
That is what Simon and Garfunkel said in the 59th Street Bridge song. Chicago Fed President Evans essentially said the same thing last night as he noted that the lingering effects of the Great Recession remain with us and inflation remains below target.
Separately, if you have never taken the tram ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Slow Down Your Moving Too Fast
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: 5Y Issues Led Low Volume Friday Session
2016-10-11 10:25:32.849 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $11.2b Friday vs $17.3b Thursday, $15.3b the previous
Friday. 10-DMA $15.8b; 10-Friday moving avg $11.5b.
* 144a trading added $1.9b of IG volume Friday vs $2.2b
Thursday, $2.2b last Friday
* ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Corporate Bond Stuff
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers:
Dollar Remains Bid
The dollar is bid and an important driver is the backing up of US rates
Japan reported a larger than expected August trade and current account figures
Sterling cannot find any traction
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari is the only Fed speaker ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT PIPELINE: 2 to Price; Saudi Roadshows to Begin
2016-10-11 09:55:46.184 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Expected to price today:
* KEB Hana Bank (KEB) A1/A; to price $benchmark 144a/Reg-S 2-
part deal, via managers C/CA/JPM/SCB/UBS
* 3Y, IPT +95 area
* 5Y, IPT +105 area
* Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) A1/A-, to price ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Credit Pipeline
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Via WSJ:
Markets Streetwise
The Great Market Switcheroo of 2016
y
By James Mackintosh
Updated Oct. 10, 2016 11:30 a.m. ET
4 COMMENTS
Investors who got just one trade right this year would have done brilliantly: Sell everything that did well in the first half of the year and buy everything that did badly.
The reversal has been ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Fear Morphs into Greed
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
German ZEW Investor Sentiment Jumps in Sign Economy Robust
Piotr Skolimowski
Skolimowski
October 11, 2016 — 5:09 AM EDT
Updated on October 11, 2016 — 5:33 AM EDT
Gauge for expectations rises to 6.2 in Oct. from 0.5 in Sept.
ZEW says German banks currently are burden to economic outlook
German investor confidence improved more than ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on German ZEW Surges
Tuesday, October 11th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Christopher Langner
Oct 11, 2016 3:29 AM EDT
Traditional theory says a cheaper currency should be good news for an export-dependent nation that's losing ground to lower-cost rivals. That doesn't apply in China's case, and its banks could be next to suffer the consequences.
Investors have good reason to ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Risks From Depreciating Yuan