Archive for September, 2016

Credit Pipeline

Tuesday, September 13th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: 5 Triple-A Names to Price; List Grows Again 2016-09-13 10:02:16.250 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Expected to price today: * World Bank (IBRD) Aaa/AAA, to price $bench Global 5Y, via managers C/DB/JPM/RBC; final spread MS +20 * Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten (BNG) Aaa/AAA, to price $bench 144a/Reg-S 2Y, via Daiwa/MS/RBC/TD; spread set at ...

Forecast of Oil Demand for Reduced

Tuesday, September 13th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Benoit Faucon Sept. 13, 2016 4:00 a.m. ET 1 COMMENTS The International Energy Agency on Tuesday sharply cut its forecast for global oil demand for this year and the next amid what it called “wobbling” Asian demand. The fresh data is set to intensify the debate between oil producers later this month ...

FX

Tuesday, September 13th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h11513852,1847e297,1847e298&p1=136122&p2=d1e3e3d0d913e0e042368a93c607811c> The Fed's Lael Brainard confounded expectations that she would set the scene for a rate hike next week, sounding more dovish then most expected. She emphasised asymmetrical risks in tightening vs easing policy from here, suggested the neutral real interest rate is now around zero and ...

Increased Capital Requirements

Tuesday, September 13th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Banks May Face 10% Basel Capital Requirement Increase, Heim Says Cindy Roberts crobertsCH Fabio Benedetti Valentini Societe Generale’s Heim commented on Basel revamp in New York Basel debate focused on defining ‘significant’ increase   Banks may face an increase of about 10 percent in their capital requirements as a result of the overhaul of risk-assessment rules ...

Markets and the Rate Hikes

Tuesday, September 13th, 2016

This WSJ story argues that recent market tumult will make it more difficult for the Fed to raise rates. I think the FOMC should stop playing monetary Hamlet, grow a set of testicular appendages, and raise rates. Via the WSJ: By Justin Lahart Updated Sept. 12, 2016 2:25 p.m. ET 10 COMMENTS Calm returned to ...

Curvology

Tuesday, September 13th, 2016

I just marked the Treasury complex and the overnight up trade has unwound some of the cheapness of the Long Bond. The Treasury will auction $12 billion crisp new bonds today via a reopening of the current Long Bond. The 5s 30s spread is at 117 versus 118.9 at the ...

Hilsenrath Article

Monday, September 12th, 2016

Via Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: By Jon Hilsenrath Sept. 12, 2016 6:48 p.m. ET 36 COMMENTS Federal Reserve officials, lacking a strong consensus for action a week before their next policy meeting, are leaning toward waiting until late in the year before raising short-term interest rates. It is a close call. But with inflation ...

Goldman on Why the Bond Rout is Likely to Continue

Monday, September 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Why the Bond Rout Is Going to Get Worse Stretched bond valuations, waning impact from quantitative easing, and rising importance of fiscal policy. Oh my. Tracy Alloway tracyalloway Luke Kawa LJKawa September 12, 2016 — 8:41 AM EDT Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries have been doing their best impression of a soaring eagle in recent days, ...

Skewering Brainard

Monday, September 12th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: For some strange reason, there were a number of commentators who argued that Fed Governor Brainard, an arch-dove, had scheduled a speech for today so that she could do a dramatic heel-turn (a la pro wrestling) and signal that a rate hike was coming ...

Ten Year Auction Preview

Monday, September 12th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen : We are apprehensive about this afternoon’s 10-year auction and expect non-dealer interest to be a significant test of overseas demand for the sector in the current bearish move. We see the risks skewed toward a tail even though we’ve arguably seen a meaningful pre-auction concession. Foreign awards ...