Archive for August, 2016

Stanley Fischer Muses on Rate Hikes and Productivity

Sunday, August 21st, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Fed vice chair talks days before Yellen’s Jackson Hole address Fischer sees economic growth picking up in coming quarters Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer signaled that a 2016 rate hike is still under consideration, saying the U.S. economy is already close to meeting the central bank’s goals and ...

Private Placements to Central Banks

Sunday, August 21st, 2016

Via WSJ: By Christopher Whittall Aug. 21, 2016 5:31 p.m. ET 1 COMMENTS The European Central Bank’s corporate-bond-buying program has stirred so much action in credit markets that some investment banks and companies are creating new debt especially for the central bank to buy. In two instances, the ECB has bought bonds directly from European ...

FX Musings

Sunday, August 21st, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: Sunday ramblings as we prepare for Jackson Hole, money goes on desperately seeking yield and I'm going back for more sunshine. <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h112db700,180d9143,180d9144&p1=136122&p2=b6e28b6f57b58b15d3337d6b085b774b> EM bonds keep on winning Markets continue to be dominated by flows into emerging market assets and anything with yield, away from the dollar (and the pound). ...

Hilsenrath Article

Sunday, August 21st, 2016

Via WSJ: By Jon Hilsenrath Updated Aug. 21, 2016 1:03 p.m. ET 151 COMMENTS For much of the post-financial-crisis era, U.S. Federal Reserve officials have held to a belief that they could get back to their old way of doing things. Growth would resume at a modest pace, annual inflation would climb to 2% ...

Very Grim Outlook

Saturday, August 20th, 2016

Barron's intermittently runs interviews with Stephanie Pomboy who is chief cook and bottle washer at MacroMavens. She is also a very provocative economist with some sobering proclamations on the path of the economy. She thinks that negative rates have a deleterious effect and thinks that the Great Recession left a ...

Money Fund Reform Equals Rate Hike?

Friday, August 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Money Fund Reforms Having Same Effect as Fed Hike: Cumberland 2016-08-19 11:41:13.223 GMT By Alexandra Harris (Bloomberg) -- Further increases in USD 3-mo. Libor will work as if the Fed raised rates another 25bp since the money market reforms are having the “same impact on worldwide finance” as a hike, Cumberland CIO David Kotok said ...

Helicopters and Japan

Friday, August 19th, 2016

Via Reuters: By Leika Kihara | TOKYO The Bank of Japan says there is no possibility of helicopter money, and by a strict definition they are correct. But as the government plans to issue more 40-year bonds, it is looking more and more like some monetization of debt is underway. The BOJ says ...

More FX

Friday, August 19th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h112c9584,180b8154,180b8155&p1=136122&p2=2795cf1d5c663f319f632221136432b2> Yesterday's UK retail sales data gave sterling a lift and have taken it to second place in this week's currency rankings - just behind the Swiss franc. The Colombian peso and the Russian rouble are the other notable winners: rising oil prices are a quiet, but ...

FX

Friday, August 19th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Firms Heading into Weekend Dollar recoups some of its losses Japan reported firm July department store sales overnight There are no US data releases or Fed speakers; Canada reports July CPI and June retail sales Bank Indonesia is expected to cut rates ...

Corporate Bond Stuff

Friday, August 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Long PEMEX, MSFT Issues Led Secondary Trading 2016-08-19 09:43:06.733 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $15b vs $16.9b Wednesday, $14.6b the previous Thursday. 10-DMA $14.1b; 10-Thursday moving avg $15.7b. * 144a trading added $1.5b of IG volume vs $2b on Wednesday, $2.1b last Thursday * The ...