Archive for August, 2016

Japanification of 10 Year Gilts

Thursday, August 11th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Gilt Yields Follow Japan as 10-Year Spread Shrinks to Record John Ainger johnainger August 11, 2016 — 5:23 AM EDT Yield premium has plunged since BOE announced more easing U.K. 10-, 30-year bond yields fell to all-time lows this week   It’s the first week of the Bank of England’s revived bond-purchase plan and U.K. gilts ...

More on Libor

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Randall Forsyth at  Barron's : Amid the never-ending chatter about Federal Reserve interest-rate increases, the money markets have stealthily enacted one on their own. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, has risen by roughly a quarter percentage point in recent weeks, and it has nothing to do with Brexit. Coming ...

Joy for the Rentier Class and Luxury Car Dealers in Greenwich

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Bonus Cuts for Traders, Dealmakers Said to Ease Slightly   Bonus pools for many Wall Street traders and dealmakers this year may not shrink as severely as expected just a few months ago, according to compensation consultant Johnson Associates Inc. Incentive pay for fixed-income sales and trading may fall 10 to 15 ...

A Class of Permanent Renters

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Laura Kusisto Updated Aug. 10, 2016 4:52 p.m. ET 328 COMMENTS The housing recovery that began in 2012 has lifted the overall market but left behind a broad swath of the middle class, threatening to create a generation of permanent renters and sowing economic anxiety and frustration for millions of Americans. Home ...

Overnight Preview

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Central Bank Rate decisions in New Zealand, Philippines, S. Korea, and Mexico…among others.  The BBerg consensus expects a 25bp cut by the RBNZ to a record low 2.0% Official Cash Rate, No Change by the BoK (record low 1.25%), No Change by the BSP ...

Commercial Real Estate Bubble?

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Commercial Real Estate Bubble Has Begun, New Albion Says 2016-08-10 16:39:35.287 GMT By Adam Tempkin (Bloomberg) -- The long-awaited transition of the commercial real estate (CRE) mkt from “booming” to “bubble” may be beginning; one indicator is that REITs are recently picking up the slack in CMBS issuance, but doing so in a leveraged fashion, New ...

Ten year Note Auction

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen: We are optimistic about this afternoon’s 10-year auction and expect non-dealer interest to be a significant test of overseas demand for the sector at current yield levels. We see the risks skewed toward a stop-through. Foreign awards at the last four Refundings have increased moderately to 28.3% from ...

Libor

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: USD 3-Month Libor May Reach 105-110bp by End of 2016, Citi Says 2016-08-10 14:14:18.137 GMT By Alexandra Harris (Bloomberg) -- Estimate based on the idea that prime fund managers maintain “high levels of liquidity” after Oct. 14 reform deadline to guard against a “late surge in outflows” and market may start pricing in a Fed ...

FX

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: FX Consolidation Resolved in Favor of Weaker US Dollar If there is an overarching theme, it is that rates will be lower for longer, globally Beginning with last week's stronger than expected increase in cash wages, Japan's data has been surprising to the upside ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Wednesday, August 10th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Volume Higher Led by AGN, MSFT, MUFG 2016-08-10 10:01:10.291 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $16.2b vs $12.4b Monday, $17.3b the previous Tuesday. 10-DMA $15.2b; 10-Tuesday moving avg $16.6b. * 144a trading added $2.1b of IG volume vs $1.5b on Monday, $2.1b last Tuesday * The ...