Archive for July, 2016

Helicopter on Tarmac But Engine Not Running

Wednesday, July 13th, 2016

Via Reuters: Japan's Suga: Not true govt is considering helicopter money TOKYO, July 13 (Reuters) - Japan's top government spokesman said on Wednesday the government was not considering "helicopter money" as an option, denying a media report that its advisers were suggesting the policy. The Sankei newspaper reported on Wednesday that Etsuro Honda, ...

Gunlach Musings

Wednesday, July 13th, 2016

I think it interesting that he thinks the election of Donald Trump is likely. I think I  previously read that he thinks the outcome will be analogous to the UK's Brexit vote. Via Bloomberg: July 12, 2016 — 6:28 PM EDT Updated on July 12, 2016 — 8:55 PM EDT   Investors who rushed into ...

Japan Cuts Growth and Inflation Forecast

Wednesday, July 13th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Japan’s cabinet office cut its forecasts for growth and inflation as the government considers a stimulus package to support the ailing economy. Gross domestic product will expand by just 0.9 percent in the fiscal year that started April, compared with a January estimate of 1.7 percent. The consumer price index ...

Early FX

Wednesday, July 13th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h10ecbc01,17a2cbfd,17a2cbfe&p1=136122&p2=9a3b4f7b1e1fb0c912a46502a5e19581> I don't know if the credibility of GDP as a concept is quite what it was before yesterday's Irish GDP data (and revisions). These put Q1 2015 GDP at +24.4% (that's a 97.6% q/q saar rate, the way the US releases data) on the back of ...

If You Need to Diversify Your Portfolio….

Tuesday, July 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: July 11, 2016 — 5:01 PM EDT Updated on July 12, 2016 — 11:52 AM EDT   The global search for bond returns has pushed Ukrainian government debt to highs not seen since before the first bullets were fired amid anti-government protests in Kiev’s central square more than two years ago. The yield ...

Overnight Data Preview

Tuesday, July 12th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: At 10am Wednesday the Bank of Canada will release its Monetary Policy Report and, at the same time, is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 0.50%. CHINA: Over the next week the PBOC will release its monetary report for June; the Bberg consensus ...

Atlanta Fed GDP

Tuesday, July 12th, 2016

Via FRB Atlanta: Latest forecast: 2.3 percent — July 12, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.3 percent on July 12, down from 2.4 percent on July 6. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter ...

Treasury Market Update

Tuesday, July 12th, 2016

Some interesting stuff overnight. Risk is back on as  global equities continue their surge and the pound sterling recovers. One commentator suggests that the surge is mostly short covering and partly a response to the modicum of stability which has emerged with the naming of new Prime Minister now a ...

More FX

Tuesday, July 12th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Easing Political Uncertainty Encourages Animal Spirits Sterling is leading the new appetite for risk as one element of political uncertainty has been lifted Abe does not need a super-majority to implement his economic program Italy and the EU appear to be moving toward ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Tuesday, July 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: High Volume Monday Session as Spreads Tighten 2016-07-12 10:06:58.307 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $15.9b vs $13.1b Friday. IG trading was 6th highest of any Monday since July 2005. * 10-DMA $15.2b; 10-Monday moving avg $13b * 144a trading added $2b of IG volume ...