Archive for July, 2016
Tuesday, July 26th, 2016
Via Kit Juckes at Socgen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h1104315d,17c8a49d,17c8a49e&p1=136122&p2=0dd9675814f53a915b3cebd38ba7833c>
I thought (still think) there are more Yen longs than shorts out there, but shorts were squeezed by doubts about the extent of upcoming fiscal easing, and pre BOJ meeting nerves. It's been a pretty swift correction in USD/JPY, which has spent two weeks crawling up ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Treasuries Draw Weakest Demand Since ’08 at Auction as Fed Looms
2016-07-25 17:37:33.546 GMT
By Brian Chappatta
(Bloomberg) -- The Treasury’s auction of two-year notes
lured the weakest demand since 2008 as bond traders bet Federal
Reserve policy makers this week will acknowledge signs of
economic strength, bolstering the case for an interest-rate
increase this year.
Benchmark two-year ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Weak Two Year Note Auction
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via Ian Lyngen (formerly at CRT Capital) :
We are cautious heading into this afternoon’s $26 bn 2-year auction and see the risks skewed toward a modest tail. Our logic here is relatively straightforward and we’ll point to the low outright level of 2-year yields, the recent poor performance of 2-year ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Two Year Note Auction
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Drivers for the Week Ahead
The FOMC statement is likely to recognize that since the June meeting, the economy has evolved largely in line with what the Fed expected
A couple of days after the FOMC meeting, the first estimate of US growth ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: Oracle 10Y, 30Y Most Active on Client, Affilate Flows
2016-07-25 09:37:51.352 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $11.5b Friday vs $16.8b Thursday, $12.2b the previous
Friday.
* 10-DMA $16.4b; 10-Friday moving avg $10.2b
* 144a trading added $1.4b of IG volume Friday vs $2.3b
Thursday, $2.2b ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bond Pipeline
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Liz McCormick
mccormickliz
Susanne Barton
SuziAnn2
July 24, 2016 — 7:00 PM EDT
Updated on July 25, 2016 — 4:29 AM EDT
Net issuance seen rising after steady declines since 2009
Fed seen adding to supply as Treasury ramps up debt sales
Negative yields. Political risk. The Fed. Now add the U.S. deficit to the list of ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on A Coming Surfeit of Treasuries
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Fed’s July meeting will set stage for possible September move
Economic data beat expectations but have less influence on Fed
For Federal Reserve officials, getting better never seems to rise to good enough.
Since the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee last gathered six weeks ago, economic reports have shown one ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Waiting for Godot (and Janet Yellen)
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via the WSJ:
By Michael S. Derby
July 24, 2016 4:36 p.m. ET
2 COMMENTS
Federal Reserve bank presidents are pushing back against a rising chorus of voices saying the central bank’s century-old structure needs to be overhauled to reduce bankers’ influence over its operations and policies.
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Reforming the Fed?
Monday, July 25th, 2016
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h1101c7d7,17c49f3d,17c49f3e&p1=136122&p2=2a4d0ceb482be6d50087b6ba6077325b>
Last week was a fallow period for meaningful US economic news, reflected in a very tight trading range for US Treasury yields (10s have been stuck in a 1.55-1.60 range), while the dollar crawled higher. The Republican Convention took the limelight instead, but the consensus view ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Sunday, July 24th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Will the FOMC Halt the Dollar's Advance?
The US dollar gained against all the major currencies over the past week. It also rose against many emerging market currencies. A notable exception was the Chinese yuan. The yuan rose before the weekend, extended its advancing streak ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Sunday Evening FX Musings