Archive for July, 2016

Q2 GDP Guesses

Friday, July 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: July 28, 2016 — 11:52 AM EDT Previously unavailble figures on June inventories lead to cuts Wider trade gap also contributing to lowered expectations   Some forecasts for second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product tumbled after a new report showed weaker inventories and a wider trade deficit in June. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ...

Stiglitz on the Euro: “A Tragic Mistake”

Thursday, July 28th, 2016

Via the NYTimes: It was started in the name of forging a greater sense of union among the disparate nations of Europe. It was supposed to enhance commercial ties, erode borders and foster a spirit of collective interest, furthering the evolution of former wartime combatants into fellow nations of a united ...

Yield Curve Signals

Thursday, July 28th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Ian Talley Jul 27, 2016 7:00 am ET 35 COMMENTS Record-low yields on U.S. Treasurys have for decades signaled weakness in the U.S. economy and foreshadowed recession. Not this time. Some economists are pointing to the so-called yield curve—the difference between long-term and short-term rates—as a harbinger of a new slowdown. Yields on 30-year and 10-year ...

More FX

Thursday, July 28th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Pulls Back Further Post-FOMC After reversing lower yesterday after the FOMC statement, the US dollar has continued to move lower against the major currencies, save sterling German and Spanish labor market reports showed improvement As more details of Japan's fiscal plans are known, ...

Early FX

Thursday, July 28th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: )<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h110a38a5,17d20c7c,17d20c7d&p1=136122&p2=84fb8deadc0184df3fbbc4831cd5b472> “Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labour utilization in recent months” says the FOMC statement. ”Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.” Finally, “with gradual adjustments in ...

Credit Pipeline

Thursday, July 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: EXIMBK Set to Price, Domestics Expected 2016-07-28 09:26:50.786 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Expected to price today: * Export-Import Bank of India (EXIMBK) Baa3/BBB-, to price $bench 144a/Reg-S 10Y, via managers Barc/BAML/C/JPM/SCB; IPY +210 area LATEST UPDATES * International Business Machines (IBM) Aa3/AA-, filed automatic mixed shelf yesterday; $2b matured last week * Analog Devices ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Thursday, July 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Long Bonds Most Active on Client Flows 2016-07-28 09:34:15.114 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $17.6b vs $16.8b Tuesday, $19.6b the previous Wednesday. * 10-DMA $15.9b; 10-Wednesday moving avg $17.4b * 144a trading added $1.6b of IG volume vs $2.3b Tuesday, $2.5b last Wednesday * Most active ...

Overnight Data Preview

Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: EURO ZONE: The Bberg consensus expects the leading Business Climate Indicator to have slipped to 0.17 in July from 0.22 in June; a 0.17 reading would be disappointing but above the 0.12 low for 2016 reached in March. The consensus also expects the overall ...

FOMC Analysis

Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH                    US: FOMC Signals “Diminished” Near-term Risks  The July FOMC statement reflects a Fed that has become incrementally more confident in the economic outlook. While the risk assessment remained absent from the statement, the inclusion of the reference to diminished near term risks suggests that ...

Another Duration Lesson

Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

Via WSJ: Investors in Japan’s 40-year bond have lost 24 years of coupon income in just three weeks as the rush into long-dated safe government paper went into sharp reverse. At one level, the 10% fall in the price of the longest-dated Japanese government bond is just a correction after this year’s ...