Archive for June, 2016
Friday, June 24th, 2016
Via Chris Low at FTN Financial:
Yesterday, the British people voted to end a 40-year stint in the European Union, and financial markets reaped the panic sown by political leaders in the weeks leading up to the vote. Fear is a powerful political tool, but it can backfire powerfully, too. David ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Excellent Analysis
Friday, June 24th, 2016
This is via my former employer TDSecurities. It is striking as they have moved out a rate hike to June 2017 from September 2016 and actually assign a 30 perent probability to an ease.
Via TDSecurities:
UK Votes to Leave the European Union – Initial Expectations and Market Implications
· The UK Referendum ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Thoughts on Brexit
Friday, June 24th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
U.K. Brexit Timeline: What’s Next After U.K. Votes to Leave EU
2016-06-24 10:22:46.99 GMT
By Deborah L Hyde
(Bloomberg) -- U.K. PM David Cameron announced he’ll resign
once a new leader for his party has been selected after the U.K.
voted to Leave the EU by 52% to 48%. Here’s a timeline of what
happens ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Brexit TimeLine
Friday, June 24th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
CREDIT PIPELINE: Expect Solid Issuance to Re-Start Next Week
2016-06-24 09:28:20.167 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) --
LATEST UPDATES
* Microsoft (MSFT) Aaa/AAA, added to list of possible issuers,
says Morningstar; also notes PG, DOV as potentials
* Sumitomo Life (SUMILF) A3/BBB+, to hold an investor meeting
July 19, via BofAML; focus to be on hybrid capital
* ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Credit Pipeline
Friday, June 24th, 2016
Via An anonymous reader:
Barclays Updates Index Duration Changes for July 1 06:30
Barclays estimated the following duration extensions for July 1 as of June 22:
• U.S. Treasury: 0.09yrs vs 0.08yrs
• U.S. Agency: 0.12yrs, unch
• U.S. Credit: 0.09yrs vs 0.08yrs
• U.S. Govt/Credit: 0.09yrs vs 0.08yrs
• U.S. MBS: 0.07yrs vs 0.05yrs
• U.S. Aggregate: ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on End of Month Extension
Friday, June 24th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
rexit Sends Shock Waves Through Global Capital Markets
UK votes to leave the EU
Dramatic response throughout the capital markets, but stabilizing as the European morning progressed
It will take some time to sort out the economic and political consequences, which no doubt are ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Friday, June 24th, 2016
I have watched the spread between the 10 year US and Spain and Italy as a gauge of the amount of fear coursing through markets. That move in the overnight panic has been dramatic. Yesterday morning at 545AM the 10 year Spanish bond yielded 1.46 and 10 year US traded ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Peripheral Spreads
Thursday, June 23rd, 2016
Via TDSecurities:
TD Securities’ models point to a Leave win.
Our models now suggest a small Leave majority. With about 60% of all votes counted, Leave is ahead by 51.6%. We note that there are a few important Remain voting areas to report (particularly in London), but we are doubtful of their ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on TD Securities Analysts Think Brexit Win Likely
Thursday, June 23rd, 2016
Via Robert SInche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
According to Bloomberg, Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia, who has done extensive analysis of the votes on a district level, has now said he sees a 0% probability of a vote to Remain. Now, as an academic he should know better ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Academic Predicts Zero Percent Chance of Remain
Thursday, June 23rd, 2016
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
Initial unemployment claims sank by more than expected in the week ended June 18, sliding 18,000 to 259,000. It looks like there was a little week-to-week noise over the past two readings, and the state-by-state data suggest that it occurred in California (which accounts ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »