Archive for June, 2016

In Need of a Vulcan Mind Meld

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via L J Kawa at Bloomberg: In Star Trek, top cadets at Starfleet Academy face a terrible training scenario: Do they abandon a civilian vessel to annihilation in the Neutral Zone or risk war with the Klingons—and their own demise—by embarking upon a rescue mission? In her quest to save the U.S. economy from ...

World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Ian Talley June 7, 2016 4:01 p.m. ET WASHINGTON—The global economy is increasingly vulnerable to a sharp slowdown as troubles in emerging markets mount and as advanced economies struggle to grow, the World Bank warned Tuesday. The bank’s latest projection pegs global growth at 2.4%, down from the 2.9% forecast in ...

Three Year Note Auction

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: We are optimistic about this afternoon’s $24 bn 3-year auction and see the risk of a stop-through in light of the historically strong takedowns of new 3s (despite the Feb/Mar poor performance) and the NFP-inspired Fed rethink.  In addition, the WI suggests the 3-year yield ...

Productivity and Wages: A Whiff of Inflation Wafting Through the Macroeconomic Air?

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Excellent piece on wages via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The productivity decline in Q1 was shaved, roughly as expected and in line with the modest upward adjustment to GDP for the period.  The 0.6% annualized fall in Q1 productivity took the four-quarter gain to 0.7%, still quite close to ...

Market Update

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via an anonymous market participant: 5 yr German bonds broke below the -0.40 deposit rate which makes them ineligble for purchase by the ECB.  It is forcing the ECB further out the yield curve and is taking 10 yr bunds to record low yields.  US Treasurys are getting dragged along.

JPMorgan Duration Survey

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Treasury Client Survey Shows All-Clients Modestly Net Long: JPM 2016-06-07 11:22:24.222 GMT By Stephen Spratt (Bloomberg) -- In week ended June 6, all clients survey shows longs rise, shorts fall, leaving a modest net long, though stands close to 4-week average. * Active clients moves to net long; sits 12 percentage points longer than its 4-week ...

Credit Pipeline

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: ANZ to Price; More Names Added to List 2016-06-07 09:37:40.698 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Set to price today * Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Baa1/BBB-, to sell $bench 144a/Reg-S perp subordinated contingent convertible securities, via managers ANZ/Citi/DB/GS/MS; IPT 7.25% area LATEST UPDATES * Emera (EMACN) Baa3/BBB, to held investor calls June ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Volume, Spreads Improve; Issuance Remains the Focus 2016-06-07 10:03:53.18 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $13.2b vs $12.1b Friday. 10-DMA $14.9b; 10-Monday moving avg $13.4b. * 144a trading added $2.4b of IG volume vs $2.3b on Friday * The most active issues: * ABIBB 3.65% 2026 ...

More FX

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Yen Bucks Heavier Dollar Tone Yellen dropped the guidance used at the end of May, when she said in the "coming months” The RBA statement was considerably less dovish than the market is expected Sterling inexplicably shot up almost two cents in a matter ...

Early FX

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h10ab4727,173bafbb,173bafbc&p1=136122&p2=3adbd798aad72d81a8d4efa6c94648c5> The S&P index continues to edge ever closer to last year's all-time high, unperturbed by signs of softness in the economy or indeed, by the downturn in corporate earnings. The Fed's on hold for now and probably until after the Presidential Election and that's all that ...