Archive for May, 2016

Data Analysis

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Initial unemployment claims fell back by 16K in the week ended May 14, giving back most of the 20K jump in the prior period.  The bulk of the swings in the last two weeks reflected a one-off bump in claims in the state of ...

Credit Pipeline

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: 2 to Price as List Grows Longer Still 2016-05-19 09:45:25.442 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Set to price today: * Kallpa Generación S.A. (KALLPA) Baa3/na/BBB-, to price $350m 144a/Reg-S 10Y, via managers CS/Creditcorp/MS/Sco; guidance +325 area * Export Development Canada (EDC) Aaa/AAA, to price $1b Global 5Y, via BNP/BAML/GS/Sco; guidance MS +22 LATEST UPDATES * ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Trading Not Keeping Pace as Issuance Takes Focus 2016-05-19 09:57:34.278 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $16.5b vs $15b Tuesday, $17.1b the previous Wednesday. 10-DMA $14.7b; 10-Wednesday moving avg $18.7b. * 144a trading added $2.5b of IG volume vs $2b Tuesday, $2.2b last Wednesday * The ...

Tough Times Aheadfor Rentier Class and Luxury Car Dealers in Greenwich

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Analysts lower earnings estimates for biggest investment banks FICC revenue to fall 12% on last year, equity trading down 28% Quiet trading floors are set to depress global investment banks’ second-quarter revenue 24 percent, with the underwriting and equities businesses facing the biggest drops, according to analysts at JPMorgan ...

Goldman Sachs Does Not Expect June Rate Hike

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Barron's: By Shuli Ren The U.S. Federal Reverse wants financial markets to price in the possibility of a June rate hike but won’t do anything next month, analysts say. Despite being a dollar bull and talking about policy divergence on a weekly basis, Goldman Sachs still doesn’t see a rate hike in ...

Did Traders Rig market for Sovereigns and Supras?

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg and a hat tip to Steve Feiss  (@stevefeiss) at Government Perspectives: Suit follows probes of SSA bond market in U.S. and U.K. Traders are alleged to have colluded to fix bond prices Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AG were among five banks sued over claims that traders conspired ...

Norway Could Go Negative

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via FT: Norway could join its Nordic peers by cutting interest rates below zero, the country’s central bank governor has said. The oil-rich economy is the only Nordic nation that has not sent is benchmark interest rate – which stands at 0.5 per cent – to sub-zero levels. But Norges Bank governor Oystein ...

Iron ore Rally Not Sustainable

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Vale’s S11D may produce 40 mln tons next year, Alves predicts ‘We’re prepared to operate at any price level,’ Alves says Iron ore mining giant Vale SA just delivered a stark, three-pronged warning: first, this year’s dramatic run-up isn’t fully justified by the fundamentals; second, watch out as low-cost ...

Early FX

Thursday, May 19th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at Socgen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h108d534f,170b1a28,170b1a29&p1=136122&p2=9be40419257f0c442f738d0707caf5df> Persuasion was on the FOMC's mind and if New York Fed President Dudley looks like a cat who's found the cream when he speaks at his press briefing this afternoon (15:30 BST) it'll be because the market has largely done what the Fed wanted - Treasury ...

FOMC Analysis

Wednesday, May 18th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The April FOMC minutes confirmed my suspicion that the Committee was considerably more serious about a June rate hike than market participants (and most Street economists) thought.  It was my guess in the run-up to the April meeting that the Fed would try to ...