Archive for May, 2016

When AAA Isn’t Really AAA

Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Look Closer: 57% of China AAA Bond Issuers Have Junk-Like Risks 2016-05-24 08:19:07.842 GMT By Bloomberg News (Bloomberg) -- So you bought a top-rated yuan bond in China? Take a closer look. It may share characteristics with junk notes in the rest of the world. About 57 percent of bond issuers listed in China and ...

FX

Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Regains Momentum, Sterling Resists The US dollar lost momentum yesterday but has regained it today The broader dollar gains have been driven by the shift in expectations of Fed policy The news stream has been light and largely focused on Germany The ...

Credit Pipeline

Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: 3 Expected to Price; Domestics Also Expected 2016-05-24 09:39:15.256 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Set to price today: * The Russian Federation (RUSSIA) BB+/BBB-, to price $bench 144a/Reg-S 10Y, via mamanger VTB-solo; IPT 4.65-4.90% * HSBC Holdings (HSBC) Baa3/na, to price $bench Perp/NC5 Subordinated CoCo, via hSBC-solo; IPT 7.25% area * Three Gorges ...

Traders in Need of Work

Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

This Bloomberg post highlights the stark changes in the trading business since the onset of the financial crisis. Bloomberg reports that at the end of Q1 2016 big banks employed 18,600 traders. That is a decline of 32 percent since 2011. Via Bloomberg and a hat tip to Steve Feiss at ...

Bonds Searching for a Home

Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

Today the Treasury will auction a block of  $26 billion 2 year notes. With FOMC solons making noises about several rate hikes this year that might be a tough sale for the Treasury. Via Bloomberg: Two-year notes stagnate in 2016 as 30-year bonds surge 8.9% Odds of Fed rate increase this ...

Early FX

Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h10948213,1717118d,1717118e&p1=136122&p2=df3d19b31ba59ec44865025862d10a34> Good morning. From Munich, twinned with western Ireland judging by the weather.. The Brazilian real had the worst start of the week among major currencies, falling as political concerns resurfaced. The Turkish Lira, with its own political risk and a central bank meeting to boot, wasn't that ...

Aging Baby Boomer Alert: Bob Dylan, Forever Young Turns 75 Today

Tuesday, May 24th, 2016

What can you say about Bob Dylan? He encapsulates a generation and (I think) in the years from 1961 to 1974 wrote some of the greatest lyrics ever recorded. His voice is certainly an acquired taste but his music has been covered by so many great artists that if you ...

Negative Carry on Oil

Monday, May 23rd, 2016

This is an excellent article by Tracy Alloway at Bloomberg which describes a tenuous situation in the oil market. Traders are borrowing money to finance oil at a loss. That can not continue indefinitely and suggests that oil prices are likely to fall. Separately, you have got to love the verb ...

Will Massive Debt Problem in China Require Bailout?

Monday, May 23rd, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Autonomous Research partner Charlene Chu talks in interview She’s not yet convinced China is serious about tackling debt Charlene Chu, a banking analyst who made her name warning of the risks from China’s credit binge, said a bailout in the trillions of dollars is needed to tackle the bad-debt ...

Tim Duy on The June FOMC Meeting

Monday, May 23rd, 2016

Via Tim Duy at Tim Duy's Fed Watch: This Is Not A Drill. This Is The Real Thing. The June FOMC meeting is live. That message came through loud and clear in the minutes, and was subsequently confirmed by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley. Last week, via Reuters: "We are on ...