Archive for May, 2016
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via the Atlanta Fed:
Latest forecast: 1.7 percent — May 4, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.7 percent on May 4, down 0.1 percentage point from May 2. The forecasts for second-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on GDP Now
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via TDSecurities:
US: Services ISM Pushes Higher in April
In contrast to its manufacturing counterpart, the services ISM index pushed higher to 55.7 in April. The headline gain was reflected in a strong advance in the new orders component as well as in employment.
With all eyes on the transition ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The May Treasury Refunding statement is very straightforward. The budget situation worsened over the past three months, which led to an increased in projected financing needs. This provides the Treasury with ample room to increase bill supply without cutting coupon issuance. Thus, Treasury is ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More on Refunding
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
Nonfarm business productivity declined at an annual rate of 1.0% in Q1, marking the fourth negative reading in the last 6 quarters. Productivity growth has averaged 0.5% since the beginning of 2011, and the latest figure does not change my view of the trend. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Members Agreed to No Further Changes to Coupon Issuance: TBAC
2016-05-04 12:30:26.86 GMT
By Alexandra Harris
(Bloomberg) -- Members of Treasury Borrowing Authority
Committee (TBAC) “broadly agreed” that no further adjustments
to coupon issuance are necessary, though demand for bills should
“continue to be evaluated over the coming quarters,”
especially as money market reforms go into ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Re Coupon Issuance
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via the WSJ:
Six Months Out, the General Election Map Looks Tough for Donald Trump
By
NEIL KING JR.
May 4, 2016 7:00 am ET
Indiana has all but sealed it: The general election will likely feature a face off between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
So with six months to go before Election Day, what ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Clinton Trump Analysis
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via the FT:
2 HOURS AGO
by: Katie Martin
OK. It’s time. Analysts and investors are starting to see this as a serious possibility.
Over at UBS, Paul Donovan has had a stab at advising clients on what to do in preparation for a Trump-Clinton showdown. In a podcast today, he said:
The problem is ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Pricing Trump Risk
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
* 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 29, no est.
(prior -4.1%)
* 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, April, est. 195k (prior
200k)
* 8:30am: Trade Balance, March, est. -$41.2b (prior -
$47.1b)
* 8:30am: Non-farm Productivity, 1Q P, est. -1.3% (prior
-2.2%)
* Unit Labor Costs, 1Q P, est. 3.3% ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch Today
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via the FT:
5 HOURS AGO
by: Joe Rennison in New York
The US Treasury has debated a sweeping overhaul of the $13tn government bond market, including a proposal to buy back old debt as officials focus on the health of trading in a core asset of many global investment portfolios.
The idea being ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Radical Proposal to Restructure Treasury Market
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Greenback Firmer, But Has It Turned?
There is one question many investors are asking, and that is whether the dollar has turned
Some caution against extending dollar shorts may have been spurred by the proximity of the US jobs data
In addition to the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX