Archive for May, 2016

Is June Live for the Fed?

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Gross says Fed rate increase may come in June as wages rise El-Erian, Kiesel, Dudley say two Fed moves possible this year Three of the world’s most influential bond investors and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are signaling the U.S. central bank is on ...

Central Bank “Profits”

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

This topic always disturbs and perplexes me. The US central bank has achieved record "profits" since the expansion of its balance sheet in the aftermath of the financial crisis. If we are supposed to worry about maintaining those profits,then I guess the logical corollary is that the central bank should ...

Oil Discovery at Sixty Year Low

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via the FT: Discoveries of new oil reserves have dropped to their lowest level for more than 60 years, pointing to potential supply shortages in the next decade. Oil explorers found 2.8bn barrels of crude and related liquids last year, according to IHS, a consultancy. This is the lowest annual volume recorded ...

Persistent Peripheral Pressure

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Italian-German 10-year yield spread at widest in two months GDP data could signal if ECB's QE is working: Cantor's Callan Government bonds from the euro region’s so-called peripheral nations may further underperform German securities with a banking crisis in Italy and political gridlock in Spain far from being resolved. While ...

Financing Taxi Medallions in the Age of Uber

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via the FT: 7 hours ago by: Alistair Gray in New York Regulators are scrutinising the finances of co-operative lenders that fund the cab trade in New York and some other US cities, as the disruption caused by Uber spreads beyond the taxi stand. Documents filed in recent days show borrower delinquencies at the ...

Greek Tragedy Redux

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Battle is over `contingency measures' demanded by IMF Euro-area finance ministers gather on Monday in Brussels Greece returns to center stage on Monday when aid deliberations by its international creditors will signal whether the country faces a renewed period of political drift or wins some economic breathing space after ...

China and Global Commodity Glut

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Brian Spegele in Beijing and John W. Miller in Pittsburgh May 8, 2016 6:36 p.m. ET China is doubling down on efforts to keep unprofitable factories afloat despite for years pledging to curb excess capacity, adding to a glut of basic materials flooding the global economy. The country’s overproduction of steel, ...

In China Imports and Exports Post Declines in April

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via FT: 9 hours ago by: Yuan Yang in Beijing China reported a decline in exports and imports in April, a reversal of figures the previous month that indicated a tentative revival in both external and domestic demand. Data published on Sunday by the General Administration of Customs showed that exports fell 1.8 per ...

Risk Assets and the Greenback

Sunday, May 8th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Ira Iosebashvili, Chelsey Dulaney and Christopher Whittall May 8, 2016 5:30 a.m. ET The powerful rallies that have lifted stocks, crude oil and emerging markets for the past three months have one important thing in common—the falling dollar—and investors are growing anxious that it could prove to be the weak link. While ...

Donald Trump, US Debt and Monetary Policy

Friday, May 6th, 2016

Via Greg Ip at the WSJ (excellent article): By Greg Ip May 6, 2016 6:32 p.m. ET 17 COMMENTS If there’s one part of being president for which Donald Trump feels uniquely suited, it’s handling the national debt. Since several of his companies have gone through bankruptcy, he has ample experience ...