Archive for May, 2016

Income Inequality in America

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via the FT: by: Sam Fleming and Shawn Donnan in Washington More than four-fifths of America’s metropolitan areas have seen household incomes decline this century, according to new research that exposes the politically charged reality of middle-class decline at the heart of this year’s presidential election. The research on urban centres that are ...

Global Oil Supplies Moving Into Balance

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Summer Said Updated May 12, 2016 4:39 a.m. ET Iran’s oil production has risen faster than expected, reaching levels not seen since before Western sanctions were tightened in 2011, but a global oversupply of crude is still shrinking, the International Energy Agency said Thursday. Iran increased daily oil output by ...

Early FX

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h107ec9a3,16f4fb11,16f4fb12&p1=136122&p2=7f5ef9ca8f6573783e54ca6bf9bfdada> Softer US inventories boosted oil prices, but equities fell amid concerns about the health of the retail sector. The US data drought goes on but the pain trade on bond-land is for yields to fall further and 10-year TIIPs are flirting with 10bp again.  DXY and ...

Ten Year Auction

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: We are optimistic about this afternoon’s 10-year auction and expect non-dealer interest to be a significant test of overseas demand for the sector at current yield levels. We see the risks skewed toward a stop-through.  On the other hand, this morning’s price action has failed ...

Yen Intervention and Swap Spreads

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Five-year swap spread would widen on intervention, BofA says Spreads dove in 2015 as central banks unloaded Treasuries With Japan’s finance minister warning about potential intervention to weaken the yen for the first time since 2011, Bank of America Corp. strategists see a way to profit through interest-rate derivatives. Past ...

Credit Pipeline

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: No Issuance Slow Down Expected Today 2016-05-11 09:41:17.844 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Set to price today: * European Investment Bank (EIB) Aaa/AAA, to price $bench Global 3Y, via managers BNP/C/GS; guidance MS +14 area * Commonwealth Bank Australia (CBAAU) Aa2/AA-, to price$bench 144a/Reg-S 10Y, via GS/HSBC/JPM; IPT +125 area * State Grid ...

Fed Economist Says Stop Watching Equities

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Fed Economist Says Stop Relying on Stocks for Recession Signals 2016-05-11 09:00:01.0 GMT By Joseph Ciolli (Bloomberg) -- Turbulence in stocks and bonds was part of the Federal Reserve’s calculus for slowing interest rate increases in February. Now an economist with the central bank’s Dallas branch says relying on the equity market for economic signals is ...

Demographics Rules

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Janet Adamy May 10, 2016 11:30 a.m. ET 201 COMMENTS The U.S. is experiencing a baby lull that looks set to last for years, a shift demographers say will likely ripple through the U.S. economy and have an impact on everything from maternity wards to federal social programs. U.S. births have ...

Beans in the Teens?

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Jesse Newman Updated May 10, 2016 7:45 p.m. ET U.S. crop prices surged Tuesday, extending an unexpected run in agricultural prices that has drawn in big investors like hedge funds. The gains promise much needed relief for a farm economy battered by the slump in prices for major row crops ...

Excellent Analysis on State of Play of FOMC

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016

Via Gavyn Davies at the FT: This blog has barely commented on the Federal Reserve’s thinking in the past few weeks, which is unusual. It probably indicates that the Fed has temporarily disappeared from the centre of the markets’ focus, as the probability of a June rate hike has receded. Even ...