Archive for May, 2016

Listening to the Yield Curve

Friday, May 13th, 2016

Via the FT: 2 hours ago by: Adam Samson A measure of the US Treasury yield curve flattened on Friday to levels not seen since early March, reviving once again anxiety about the health of the world’s most important economy. The spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury notes tightened on Friday to as ...

Weekend Data Preview

Friday, May 13th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: The Bberg consensus expects that April Industrial production growth will have slowed to 6.5% YOY from 6.8% in March, but still the 2nd strongest YOY growth rate since June 2015. And the consensus expects that Retail Sales growth will have inched up to ...

GDP Now

Friday, May 13th, 2016

Via the Atlanta Fed: Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — May 13, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on May 13, up from 2.2 percent on May 10. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. ...

Equity Fund Outflows Continue

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via the FT: 24 minutes ago by: Eric Platt in New York Outflows from equities have hit nearly $90bn this year, after investors pulled $7.4bn from global funds as they retreated into haven assets for a fifth consecutive week. The withdrawals have put equities “firmly” on track for their biggest year of redemptions since ...

Yellen Discusses Negative Rates

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Fed chair emphasizes high bar for resorting to negative rates Policy makers would need to consider ‘wide range of issues’ Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen didn’t rule out using negative rates in a future crisis but emphasized that they would be adopted as a last resort. In written responses Thursday ...

Warning Signal in Options Market

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via the FT: 9 HOURS AGO by: Stephen Foley At the SALT investment conference in Las Vegas this week, delegates have agreed that the collective noun for hedge fund managers is “a herd”, and made crowded trades the hottest topic here in the Nevada heat. So it was refreshing to hear two panellists ...

Ms Clinton Weighs in on Federal Reserve Board Control

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By MICHAEL S. DERBY May 12, 2016 5:38 p.m. ET Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton joined the fray Thursday in the debate over how the nation’s central bank operates, saying banking industry insiders need to be removed from the Federal Reserve System. Mrs. Clinton’s campaign said, if elected, she would appoint ...

More on the Retail Debacle

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via Barrons: Retailers routinely advertise markdowns of 40% or 50%, but every shopper knows that’s off of phony “original” prices that nobody actually pays. Retailers’ shares Wednesday were subjected to markdowns that ran into double digits — but from actual prices. The proximate causes for the retail rout were the disappointing results ...

Nordstrom Joins Retailer Rout

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: BUS 05/12 20:05 Nordstrom Reports First Quarter 2016 Earnings BN 05/12 20:10 *NORDSTROM MADE FURTHER ADJ TO INVENTORY & EXPENSE PLANS BN 05/12 20:09 *NORDSTROM SEES YR NET SALES UP 2.5-4.5%, SAW 3.5-5.5% BN 05/12 20:09 *NORDSTROM  SAW YR COMP SALES 0- 2% BOOST BN 05/12 20:09 *NORDSTROM CUTS YEAR FORECAST; SHARES FALL ...

More Retail Agony: Kohls Misses

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Kohl’s Follows Macy’s Into Tailspin as Retailers’ Rout Persists 2016-05-12 15:51:19.655 GMT By Lindsey Rupp (Bloomberg) -- Kohl’s Corp. followed department-store rival Macy’s Inc. in posting weak results on Thursday, bringing a second day of suffering to many retail and apparel investors. Kohl’s posted first-quarter earnings 31 cents a share, excluding some items, well short of ...