Archive for March, 2016

Treasury Market Musings

Thursday, March 17th, 2016

The Treasury curve was reasonably stable overnight after the huge steepening move following the FOMC statement and Yellen press conference. Here are some current levels and moves from pre FOMC (1240PM New York time levels). The 5s 10s spread steepened to 52.5 from 46.7. The 5s 30s spread steepened to ...

European Fixed Income Background

Thursday, March 17th, 2016

This is some background on European fixed income which I have never received before. One of my usual sources forwarded it. It appears to be from Commerzbank and is some worthwhile commentary on European fixed income. Please be aware that this came to me at 300AM New York time so it ...

Early FX

Thursday, March 17th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h1012f748,1649cf61,1649cf62&p1=136122&p2=849a8b34094d0a1a5ae0548ea416f1b4> Happy St Patrick's Day. I suspect I'm going to need black stuff by the end of the day. Update from the opvernight session.... The FOMC left rates on hold as expected but the text of the statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160316a.htm was less hawkish than expected. Where the median ...

FOMC Musings

Wednesday, March 16th, 2016

Via Chris Low at FTN Financial: What we’re hearing: ·        From traders: In conversations with customers this week, we heard a lot of skepticism about the Fed raising rates at all this year. Many sophisticated traders think the FOMC is making the same mistake the BOE did in 2014: Sure, they say ...

Corporate Bond Stuff

Wednesday, March 16th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Another High Volume Tuesday Session Is Seen 2016-03-16 10:00:13.53 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $19.3b vs $14.2b Monday, $17.8b the previous Tuesday. * 10-DMA $18.1b; 10-Tuesday moving avg $17.9b, a new record high for the series that began in March 2005 * 144a trading ...

Bleak Times for Rentier Class

Wednesday, March 16th, 2016

Via the WSJ: Markets Trading at Banks Turns Grim By Justin Baer March 15, 2016 7:26 p.m. ET The calendar may say Wall Street’s busy season is well under way, but for bank traders, it still feels like a chilly December. “We’re clearly not seeing that normal seasonality,” Jonathan Pruzan, Morgan Stanley ’s finance chief, said ...

Wednesday, March 16th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Firm Ahead of the FOMC, UK Budget Looms The market attributes practically no chance for a Fed hike today The four hikes seen in the dot plots in December will be reduced Look for the Fed's growing confidence to be expressed in a nearly balanced risk ...

Lots to Watch This Day

Wednesday, March 16th, 2016

Via the good folks at Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, March 11 (prior 0.2%) * 8:30am: Housing Starts, Feb., est. 1.150m (prior 1.099m) * Housing Starts, Feb., est. 4.6% (prior -3.8%) * Building Permits, Feb., est. 1.200m (prior 1.202m) * Building Permits, Feb., est. -0.2% (prior ...

Dot Plots

Wednesday, March 16th, 2016

Via The Sydney Morning Herald: US Fed's 'dots' argue against rate hikes 2016-03-16 05:45:45.628 GMT By Vesna Poljak March 16 (Sydney Morning Herald) -- The United States Federal Reserve's targeted interest rate hikes appear to be further out of reach ahead of the release of its first internal rate forecast, also known as a "dot", since December. Because ...

Horse Miles From Barn and Hedge Funds Decides to Lock barn Door

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

When I was a young cub in the business the fellow who mentored me and with whom I still communicate regularly told me that only traders with bum positions are researching their positions with charts and fundamental data. If the same position had a huge mark to market gain the ...