Archive for March, 2016
Thursday, March 17th, 2016
The Treasury curve was reasonably stable overnight after the huge steepening move following the FOMC statement and Yellen press conference. Here are some current levels and moves from pre FOMC (1240PM New York time levels). The 5s 10s spread steepened to 52.5 from 46.7. The 5s 30s spread steepened to ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Musings
Thursday, March 17th, 2016
This is some background on European fixed income which I have never received before. One of my usual sources forwarded it. It appears to be from Commerzbank and is some worthwhile commentary on European fixed income.
Please be aware that this came to me at 300AM New York time so it ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on European Fixed Income Background
Thursday, March 17th, 2016
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h1012f748,1649cf61,1649cf62&p1=136122&p2=849a8b34094d0a1a5ae0548ea416f1b4>
Happy St Patrick's Day. I suspect I'm going to need black stuff by the end of the day. Update from the opvernight session.... The FOMC left rates on hold as expected but the text of the statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160316a.htm was less hawkish than expected. Where the median ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX
Wednesday, March 16th, 2016
Via Chris Low at FTN Financial:
What we’re hearing:
· From traders: In conversations with customers this week, we heard a lot of skepticism about the Fed raising rates at all this year. Many sophisticated traders think the FOMC is making the same mistake the BOE did in 2014: Sure, they say ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, March 16th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: Another High Volume Tuesday Session Is Seen
2016-03-16 10:00:13.53 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $19.3b vs $14.2b Monday, $17.8b the previous Tuesday.
* 10-DMA $18.1b; 10-Tuesday moving avg $17.9b, a new record
high for the series that began in March 2005
* 144a trading ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bond Stuff
Wednesday, March 16th, 2016
Via the WSJ:
Markets
Trading at Banks Turns Grim
By Justin Baer
March 15, 2016 7:26 p.m. ET
The calendar may say Wall Street’s busy season is well under way, but for bank traders, it still feels like a chilly December.
“We’re clearly not seeing that normal seasonality,” Jonathan Pruzan, Morgan Stanley ’s finance chief, said ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bleak Times for Rentier Class
Wednesday, March 16th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Dollar Firm Ahead of the FOMC, UK Budget Looms
The market attributes practically no chance for a Fed hike today
The four hikes seen in the dot plots in December will be reduced
Look for the Fed's growing confidence to be expressed in a nearly balanced risk ...
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Wednesday, March 16th, 2016
Via the good folks at Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
* 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, March 11 (prior 0.2%)
* 8:30am: Housing Starts, Feb., est. 1.150m (prior 1.099m)
* Housing Starts, Feb., est. 4.6% (prior -3.8%)
* Building Permits, Feb., est. 1.200m (prior 1.202m)
* Building Permits, Feb., est. -0.2% (prior ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Lots to Watch This Day
Wednesday, March 16th, 2016
Via The Sydney Morning Herald:
US Fed's 'dots' argue against rate hikes
2016-03-16 05:45:45.628 GMT
By Vesna Poljak
March 16 (Sydney Morning Herald) -- The United States
Federal Reserve's targeted interest rate hikes appear to be
further out of reach ahead of the release of its first internal
rate forecast, also known as a "dot", since December.
Because ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Dot Plots
Tuesday, March 15th, 2016
When I was a young cub in the business the fellow who mentored me and with whom I still communicate regularly told me that only traders with bum positions are researching their positions with charts and fundamental data. If the same position had a huge mark to market gain the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Horse Miles From Barn and Hedge Funds Decides to Lock barn Door