Archive for March, 2016

GDP Now

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta: Latest forecast: 0.6 percent — March 28, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.6 percent on March 28, down from 1.4 percent on March 24. After this morning's personal income and outlays release ...

Q4 GDP

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Just a very quick review of the Q4 GDP revision, since most of us were out on Friday.  Real GDP growth was revised higher on Friday to 1.4% annualized, a pleasant surprise.  The bulk of the upward adjustment came in consumption, as services outlays ...

Dealer Positions

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Dealer Positions in Corp Bonds Fall, Led by 1-5Y Area 2016-03-28 11:37:17.716 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Dealer positions in corporate bonds fell $3.1b to $14.4b as of March 16 * $6.5b low Oct. 2015; high $45.9b March 2014 * Investment grade positions: * Very short issues fell $1.3b to $1.7b; $4.7b, seen ...

What to Watch This Day

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, Feb., est. -$62.2b (prior -$62.228b) * 8:30am: Personal Income, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%) * Personal Spending, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%) * Real Personal Spending, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%) * PCE Deflator m/m, Feb., est. -0.1% (prior 0.1%) * ...

Hedge Funds Invade Treasury Space

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Hedge Fund Invasion of U.S. Treasuries Puts Bond Traders at Risk 2016-03-28 10:09:01.815 GMT By Liz Capo McCormick and Alexandra Scaggs (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are crowding into U.S. Treasuries, and that has bond traders bracing for more turbulence. While the Federal Reserve doesn’t break out hedge-fund ownership, a group seen as a proxy increased its ...

Corporate Credit Nuggets

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Lowest Volume Since January 4; Issuance Iffy 2016-03-28 09:39:28.983 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $10.5b Thursday vs $18.7b Wednesday, $17.8b the previous Thursday. 10-DMA $16.5b; 10-Thursday moving avg $18.1b. * 144a trading added $1.2b of IG volume Thursday vs $2.3b Wednesday, $2.7b last Thursday * ...

FX

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers: US jobs data Yellen's speech to the New York Economic Club Eurozone  March CPI and PMI Japan's Tankan survey In holiday thinned markets the US dollar has a slightly heavier tone.  The main exception is the Japanese yen, against which the dollar has extended its recovery into the seventh ...

Dr Copper Loses Its Sheen

Sunday, March 27th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Money managers cut net-long position for second straight week Most producers haven't changed supply-expansion plans: BI It’s been barely a month since investors first started betting on a copper rally, and they’re already on the retreat. Money managers cut their wagers on price gains for a second straight week, pulling back just ...

Hilsenrath Article

Sunday, March 27th, 2016

This was published late in the day on Thursday and speaks of a developing consensus at the Fed on the policy of gradual rate hikes. Via the WSJ: By Jon Hilsenrath Updated March 24, 2016 4:38 p.m. ET 25 COMMENTS Dallas Fed President Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Harvard Business School professor and Goldman Sachs ...

March Weakness

Saturday, March 26th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: March is the cruelest month for U.S. nonfarm payrolls as the published data came below estimates in seven of past eight years, Bloomberg strategist Tanvir Sandhu writes. From 2008, actual release numbers fell short of the median in Bloomberg survey forecasts by an average of approximately 53,000. Since 2000, March headline total nonfarm payroll numbers missed ...