Archive for March, 2016
Monday, March 28th, 2016
Via Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta:
Latest forecast: 0.6 percent — March 28, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.6 percent on March 28, down from 1.4 percent on March 24. After this morning's personal income and outlays release ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on GDP Now
Monday, March 28th, 2016
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
Just a very quick review of the Q4 GDP revision, since most of us were out on Friday. Real GDP growth was revised higher on Friday to 1.4% annualized, a pleasant surprise. The bulk of the upward adjustment came in consumption, as services outlays ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Q4 GDP
Monday, March 28th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: Dealer Positions in Corp Bonds Fall, Led by 1-5Y Area
2016-03-28 11:37:17.716 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Dealer positions in corporate bonds fell
$3.1b to $14.4b as of March 16
* $6.5b low Oct. 2015; high $45.9b March 2014
* Investment grade positions:
* Very short issues fell $1.3b to $1.7b; $4.7b, seen ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Dealer Positions
Monday, March 28th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
* 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, Feb., est. -$62.2b
(prior -$62.228b)
* 8:30am: Personal Income, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%)
* Personal Spending, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%)
* Real Personal Spending, Feb., est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%)
* PCE Deflator m/m, Feb., est. -0.1% (prior 0.1%)
* ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch This Day
Monday, March 28th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Hedge Fund Invasion of U.S. Treasuries Puts Bond Traders at Risk
2016-03-28 10:09:01.815 GMT
By Liz Capo McCormick and Alexandra Scaggs
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are crowding into U.S.
Treasuries, and that has bond traders bracing for more
turbulence.
While the Federal Reserve doesn’t break out hedge-fund
ownership, a group seen as a proxy increased its ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Hedge Funds Invade Treasury Space
Monday, March 28th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: Lowest Volume Since January 4; Issuance Iffy
2016-03-28 09:39:28.983 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $10.5b Thursday vs $18.7b Wednesday, $17.8b the
previous Thursday. 10-DMA $16.5b; 10-Thursday moving avg $18.1b.
* 144a trading added $1.2b of IG volume Thursday vs $2.3b
Wednesday, $2.7b last Thursday
* ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Credit Nuggets
Monday, March 28th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers:
US jobs data
Yellen's speech to the New York Economic Club
Eurozone March CPI and PMI
Japan's Tankan survey
In holiday thinned markets the US dollar has a slightly heavier tone. The main exception is the Japanese yen, against which the dollar has extended its recovery into the seventh ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Sunday, March 27th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Money managers cut net-long position for second straight week
Most producers haven't changed supply-expansion plans: BI
It’s been barely a month since investors first started betting on a copper rally, and they’re already on the retreat.
Money managers cut their wagers on price gains for a second straight week, pulling back just ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Dr Copper Loses Its Sheen
Sunday, March 27th, 2016
This was published late in the day on Thursday and speaks of a developing consensus at the Fed on the policy of gradual rate hikes.
Via the WSJ:
By Jon Hilsenrath
Updated March 24, 2016 4:38 p.m. ET
25 COMMENTS
Dallas Fed President Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Harvard Business School professor and Goldman Sachs ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Hilsenrath Article
Saturday, March 26th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
March is the cruelest month for U.S. nonfarm payrolls as the published data came below estimates in seven of past eight years, Bloomberg strategist Tanvir Sandhu writes.
From 2008, actual release numbers fell short of the median in Bloomberg survey forecasts by an average of approximately 53,000.
Since 2000, March headline total nonfarm payroll numbers missed ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on March Weakness