Archive for March, 2016

Yellen Speech

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: US:  Yellen Sticks to Dovish Script ·         In her first appearance since the post-FOMC press conference Yellen doubled down on the recent dovish tone, reiterating the case for caution. ·         In justifying the more cautious monetary policy stance, Yellen emphasized the heightened uncertainty about the US growth and inflation outlook and ...

Overnight Data Preview

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst pierpont Securities: CHINA: MNI will release its Consumer Sentiment index for March, not a widely followed index, but it did fall sharply in February to 11.3, not far above the record low 109.7 reached last October. JAPAN: The Bberg consensus expects Industrial production for February to fall ...

Yellen Preview

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Fed Chair Yellen delivers a luncheon speech to the New York Economic Club today.  The luncheon begins at 11:30 but the actual start of her speech is set at 12:20.  Her speech is entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” so there’s not much chance ...

Five Year Note Auction

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: We are apprehensive about the takedown of this afternoon's 5-year auction given the sector has recently seen weak receptions and the proximity to Yellen's speech and Q&A will limit the auction set-up.  The absence of an outright concession is also troubling. The potential today is ...

FX

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Mixed Ahead of Yellen Speech Yellen’s speech to the NY Economics Club is the main focus Japan reported mixed data overnight Brazil’s PMDB holds a national board meeting to decide if it will formally remain coalition partners with the ruling PT The dollar is mixed against the ...

What to Watch Today

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 9:00am: S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 y/y NSA, Jan., est. 5.75% (prior 5.74%) * S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City m/m SA, Jan., est. 0.7% (prior 0.8%) * S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI m/m Jan. (prior 0.78%) * S&P/CS US HPI y/y NSA, Jan. (prior 5.43%) * S&P/CS 20-City Index NSA, Jan., est. 182.74 ...

JPMorgan Duration Survey

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: RATES: A Few Longs and Shorts Move to Neutral in JPM Survey 07:16 The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey for the week ended March 28 vs week ended March 21. • Longs 18 vs 21 • Neutrals 64 vs 60 • Shorts 18 vs 19 • Net longs 0 vs 2 • “The all clients survey ...

Early FX

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h1025c8d8,16674862,16674863&p1=136122&p2=71daaf58ebf1eb978bffd6dfc23bdcd5> My children are languishing in bed on a quite shockingly beautiful Alpine morning. Global news is still dominated by terrorism, but March has been risk-friendly the dollar and yen at the bottom of the FX heap. 'Stuff-with-yield' has done better. Position data offer at best an incomplete ...

Consumption and Income

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: Today at 9:23 AM US:  Personal Consumption and Inflation on Weak Side  ·         Core PCE rose at a fairly subdued 0.1% m/m pace in February, keeping the annual pace of core PCE inflation unchanged at 1.7% y/y. ·         Spending performance was also weak, and despite the better than expected ...

Two Year Note Auction

Monday, March 28th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: Today at 10:11 AM The 2-year sector is trading slightly higher this morning and failing to price in an outright concession, although it is underperforming on the curve - so offering a modest accommodation. We're optimistic about this afternoon's auction given broader risk-asset profile and the ...