Archive for March, 2016
Wednesday, March 2nd, 2016
The Treasury market continues to sell off in the overnight session. The benchmark 10 year yields a little bit above 1.84. US equity futures have weakened overnight but that is a response to that outsized gains registered yesterday.
TIPS breakevens continue to widen. Yesterday morning 5 year breaks traded at 133 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Musings
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
BRAZIL: Late in the day tomorrow the Brazilian CB is expected to keep the SELIC Rate at 14.25% despite a recession that is deeper than that during the 2008-09 global downturn.
AUSTRALIA: The Bberg consensus expects that 4Q2015 Real GDOP rose 0.4% QOQ, which would ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Data Preview
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:
· The ISM manufacturing index rebounded strongly, rising to 49.5 in February from 48.2.
· This was a far better performance than the market expected, and it marks the second consecutive monthly rise in the index.
· The details of the report were equally encouraging, with improvements seen ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on ISM Report
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey for the week ended Feb. 29 vs week ended Feb. 22.
• Longs 20, unch
• Neutrals 64 vs 60
• Shorts 16 vs 20
• Net longs 4 vs 0
• All Client survey shows “most net longs since Jan. 4”
• Active clients survey:
• ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on JPMorgan Duration Survey
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Via the good folks at Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
* 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Feb F, est. 51.2
(prior 51)
* 10:00am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, March, est. 47.9
(prior 47.8)
* 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, Feb., est. 48.5 (prior 48.2)
* ISM Prices Paid, Feb., est. 35 (prior 33.5)
* ISM New ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch Today
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Markets Find Steadier Footing
- The macroeconomic data were mixed; China's official manufacturing and service PMIs were weak
- The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates steady as widely anticipated
- There is some interest in comments from NY Fed President Dudley in China
- ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Bloomberg News has discovered a bullish signal in the volatile price action of last month. According to the story it is quite unusual to see a decline of greater than 5 percent mostly erased. At one point last month stocks had posted declines of 5 .7 percent (measured against S ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bullish Equity Signal
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Prices at Fastest Pace Since 2013
Fergal O’Brien
March 1, 2016 — 4:00 AM EST
Euro-area factories cut prices at the fastest pace in almost three years in February, compounding an already worrisome inflation environment for the European Central Bank.
Markit Economics said the price gauge of its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Euro Zone PMI
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Via the WSJ:
By Erin Ailworth
Updated Feb. 29, 2016 10:51 p.m. ET
Some of America’s biggest shale producers are beginning to ratchet back oil and gas production for the first time in years, bending to the reality that a global glut will keep prices depressed.
The production cuts, announced as shale companies reported ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Shale Producers Cutting Production
Tuesday, March 1st, 2016
Japanese investors bought a 10 year bond from the government with a yield of negative 0.024 basis points. What is even crazier is that the FT story notes that the auction was three times oversubscribed.
Via the FT:
Japan made another lunge into the unknown on Tuesday when the government sold the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Negative Yield at Japan 10 Year Note Auction