Archive for March, 2016

Retail Sales

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: US:  Consumer Spending Momentum Stalls  ·         Weaker auto sales and falling gasoline prices pushed total retail sales 0.1% m/m lower in February. Core spending was also quite subdued, remaining flat on the month. ·         The huge downward revisions to the prior month’s estimates also added to the ...

PPI and CPI

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The February PPI came in mostly as expected.  The headline gauge slipped by 0.2%, mainly reflecting a 3.4% drop in energy costs.  This was in line with consensus and only slightly lower than my estimate (I had a 0.1% decline, but on an unrounded ...

JPMorgan Duration Survey

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: RATES: Longs and Shorts Rise in Latest JPM Survey 2016-03-15 12:37:24.54 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey for the week ended March 14 vs week ended March 7. * Longs 16 vs 14 * Neutrals 59 vs 64 * Shorts 25 vs 22 * “The All Client Survey shows the net short ...

Taxing FX Trades

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Initial rate of levy may be kept at zero, people familiar said The rules still need central government approval, they said China’s central bank has drafted rules for a tax on foreign-exchange transactions that would help curb currency speculation, according to people with knowledge of the matter.   The initial rate of the so-called ...

Fischer and Brainard and Fed Policy

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Professor Tim Duy of the number one seeded University of Oregon and published in Bloomberg: The author is the professor of practice and senior director of the Oregon Economic Forum at the University of Oregon, and the author of Tim Duy’s Fed Watch. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer sits on Chair ...

More FX

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Firmer Ahead of Retail Sales, FOMC Meeting The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as widely anticipated Tomorrow, major Japanese employers, especially in the auto and electronics sectors, will indicate wage plans for the next fiscal year that starts 1 April The minutes from the ...

Early FX

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: My colleagues in SG Economics have released their latest quarterly Outlook here <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h100c5098,163fa354,163fa357> lowering the 2016 global growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.2. The chart below shows world growth, along with the IMF's forecast (slightly more optimistic than ours) and the G3 growth rate (i.e., US, ...

What to Watch Today

Tuesday, March 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance, Feb. est. -0.2% (prior 0.2%) * Retail Sales Ex Auto, Feb., est. -0.2% (prior 0.1%) * Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Feb., est. 0.2% (prior 0.4%) * Retail Sales Control Group, Feb., est. 0.2% (prior 0.6%) * 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, ...

Back to the Future

Monday, March 14th, 2016

I guess I also could have entitled this one "From the those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it department". Via Bloomberg: U.S. Subprime Auto ABS Delinquencies Hit 20-Yr High, Fitch Says 2016-03-14 13:42:16.83 GMT By Adam Tempkin (Bloomberg) -- U.S. subprime auto ABS delinquencies have reached their highest level in nearly ...

Trump Style Politics In Germany

Monday, March 14th, 2016

I posted this similar article yesterday. Via Bloomberg: March 13, 2016 — 2:02 PM EDT Updated on March 14, 2016 — 3:52 AM EDT   If you think Donald Trump has some outrageous ideas, wait until you meet Germany’s AfD party. The Alternative for Germany, to give the party its full name, has shaken up the ...