Archive for February, 2016

Credit Spread Recap

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Via Bob Elson at Bloomberg: * Bloomberg US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS at 218.7 vs 220.2; 220.8, a new wide since Jan. 2012 was seen Feb, 11; 129.6 was 2015 low * 2014 high/low 144.7/102.3 * BofAML IG Master Index at +219 vs +220; +221, the new wide for 2015/16 and widest level since June ...

Break Up the Banks

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Neil Kashkari is the newly appointed President of the Federal Reserve bank of Minneapolis and in his first public comments in that post he read from the same hymnal as Bernie Sanders and advocated for breaking up the big banks. I support that viewpoint. Suppose in the early 1980s someone had ...

More on Limiting Oil Production

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Iran and Iraq and Venezuela will meet today to discuss participating in the Saudi/Russian move to limit oil production. Via the WSJ: By Summer Said Updated Feb. 17, 2016 4:22 a.m. ET A day after Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producers agreed to limit their production, the pressure was turned up on Iran ...

Credit Angst

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Hedge fund Fortress Investment observes stresses in the system which signal that another credit crisis is imminent. Via Bloomberg: Plunging oil and commoditiy prices offer warning signs Credit default swaps widening for commodity companies The Fortress Investment Group LLC fund that has predicted an Asia credit meltdown to rival 1997 says it is seeing ...

Early FX

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: Oil prices are down, the yen is up, the bounce in sentiment is in danger of fading into memory. I thought it might last A LITTLE longer than that, but my inbox certainly picked up clients' scepticism. The Russian/Saudi agreement to freeze oil output (if other ...

More Corporate Issuance

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016

IBM is doing a multi tranche deal too with 3s 5s 10s and 30s. There is also an 18 month floater attached to that one. I have no price talk. Bank of New York Mellon is doing a 5 year fixed and/or a 5 year floater.

Empire Survey

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016

Via CRT Capital: * FEBRUARY EMPIRE STATE FACTORY INDEX AT -16.6 AFTER -19.4 * FEBRUARY EMPIRE FACTORY INDEX WEAKER THAN FORECAST OF -10 * EMPLOYMENT INDEX -0.99 FEB VS -13.00 JAN * FEBRUARY EMPIRE FACTORY SHIPMENTS INDEX AT -11.6 VS -14.4 * FEBRUARY EMPIRE FACTORY NEW ORDERS INDEX AT -11.6 VS -23.5

Apple Price Talk

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016

There is some corporate bond issuance today and Apple has opened the day with a multi tranche deal across the curve. Here is the initial price talk on that deal. For the uninitiated 5Y +115A means a new 5 year note which on which the initial price talk is in the ...

What to Watch Today

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Feb., est. -10.5 (prior -19.37) * 10:00am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Feb., est. 60 (prior 60) * 4:00pm: Total Net TIC Flows, Dec. (prior -$3.2b) * Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec. (prior $31.4b) * TBA: Mortgage Delinquencies, 4Q (prior 4.99%) * MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, ...

FX

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Softer as Markets Heal - Global financial markets continue to heal - Oil prices were helped by reports that the Saudi and Russian oil ministers are holding a meeting in Doha to discuss global oil markets. - UK January CPI came in at 0.3% y/y, as ...