Archive for February, 2016
Friday, February 26th, 2016
Via the FT:
China needs to eliminate market expectations of continued currency depreciation, the head of its central bank admitted on Friday as he argued the country had ample foreign exchange reserves despite recent depletions.
Beijing has raided its reserves in order to shore up the currency amid jitters that have led ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Massaging the China Currency
Friday, February 26th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
How the Fed’s Cold War With Congress Could Harm the U.S. Economy
2016-02-26 11:00:00.1 GMT
By Craig Torres
(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s
relations with Congress look as strained as those of her
predecessor, and that could undermine the central bank’s ability
to confront the next crisis.
At a time when it may require ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Cold War Between Congress and Fed
Friday, February 26th, 2016
Via Kit Juckes at Socgen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hfe4a21d,16007ea2,16007ea3&p1=136122&p2=31f1053efc3f5e09d153ca5db92ea8b0>
FX Weekly link is above: We've updated FX forecasts, for people who think that kind of thing has any value. We look for yen strength to persist, sterling to fall further and the euro to drift down but not to break last year's range. It's premature ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More FX
Friday, February 26th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers:
Global Markets Trying to End Week on Upbeat Note
- In Japan, the Abe government is reportedly considering a front-loaded supplemental budget for the start of the new fiscal year
- The PBOC appears to have confirmed a somewhat easier monetary stance
- Ireland holds its national election ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Thursday, February 25th, 2016
Via the FT:
World trade records biggest reversal since crisis
First snapshot of data for 2015 highlights rising fears for global economy
by: Shawn Donnan in Washington and Joe Leahy in São Paulo
Weaker demand from emerging markets made 2015 the worst year for world trade since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Trade Contraction
Thursday, February 25th, 2016
A very interesting article from Carl Riccadonna of Bloomberg Intelligence on the influence of tumbling gasoline prices on inflation data. Long but informative.
Via Bloomberg:
INSIGHT: Gasoline’s Unseasonable Tumble Roils U.S. Economic Data
2016-02-25 16:15:06.244 GMT
By Carl Riccadonna
(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- The plunging price of gasoline
is roiling U.S. economic data from retail sales to ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Pouring Gasoline on the Low Inflation Fire
Thursday, February 25th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
* 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Feb., est. 270k (prior
262k)
* Continuing Claims, Feb. 13, est. 2.253m (prior
2.273m)
* 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Jan. P, est. 2.9% (prior
-5%)
* Durables Ex Transportation, Jan. P, est. 0.3% (prior
-1%)
* Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air, Jan. P, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch Today
Thursday, February 25th, 2016
I guess demand for alcohol is not inelastic.
Via the FT:
AB InBev has warned that a slowdown in markets such as Brazil and China will weigh on the group during 2016 after the brewer behind Stella Artois reported full-year results that missed analyst expectations.
The pessimistic outlook came as the world’s largest ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Even Beer Demand Slumps
Thursday, February 25th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Dollar Little Changed, US Leadership Awaited
- The foreign exchange market is unusually calm; there does not appear to be any catalyst for the reversal in the US afternoon yesterday.
- Australia reported stronger than expected Q4 15 capex
- The eurozone reported better money supply and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Thursday, February 25th, 2016
Via Reuters and a sincere thanks to Steve Feiss of Government Perspectives:
Feb 25 A key measure of the market's longer-term euro zone inflation expectations fell to a record low on Thursday, fuelling bets on more monetary policy easing and pegging core euro zone government bond yields near lows.
The five-year, five-year ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on European Inflation Gauge at Record Low