Archive for February, 2016

Massaging the China Currency

Friday, February 26th, 2016

Via the FT: China needs to eliminate market expectations of continued currency depreciation, the head of its central bank admitted on Friday as he argued the country had ample foreign exchange reserves despite recent depletions. Beijing has raided its reserves in order to shore up the currency amid jitters that have led ...

Cold War Between Congress and Fed

Friday, February 26th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: How the Fed’s Cold War With Congress Could Harm the U.S. Economy 2016-02-26 11:00:00.1 GMT By Craig Torres (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s relations with Congress look as strained as those of her predecessor, and that could undermine the central bank’s ability to confront the next crisis. At a time when it may require ...

More FX

Friday, February 26th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at Socgen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hfe4a21d,16007ea2,16007ea3&p1=136122&p2=31f1053efc3f5e09d153ca5db92ea8b0> FX Weekly link is above: We've updated FX forecasts, for people who think that kind of thing has any value. We look for yen strength to persist, sterling to fall further and the euro to drift down but not to break last year's range. It's premature ...

FX

Friday, February 26th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers: Global Markets Trying to End Week on Upbeat Note - In Japan, the Abe government is reportedly considering a front-loaded supplemental budget for the start of the new fiscal year - The PBOC appears to have confirmed a somewhat easier monetary stance - Ireland holds its national election ...

Trade Contraction

Thursday, February 25th, 2016

Via the FT: World trade records biggest reversal since crisis First snapshot of data for 2015 highlights rising fears for global economy by: Shawn Donnan in Washington and Joe Leahy in São Paulo Weaker demand from emerging markets made 2015 the worst year for world trade since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, ...

Pouring Gasoline on the Low Inflation Fire

Thursday, February 25th, 2016

A very interesting article from Carl Riccadonna of Bloomberg Intelligence on the influence of tumbling gasoline prices on inflation data. Long but informative. Via Bloomberg: INSIGHT: Gasoline’s Unseasonable Tumble Roils U.S. Economic Data 2016-02-25 16:15:06.244 GMT By Carl Riccadonna (Bloomberg Intelligence) -- The plunging price of gasoline is roiling U.S. economic data from retail sales to ...

What to Watch Today

Thursday, February 25th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Feb., est. 270k (prior 262k) * Continuing Claims, Feb. 13, est. 2.253m (prior 2.273m) * 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Jan. P, est. 2.9% (prior -5%) * Durables Ex Transportation, Jan. P, est. 0.3% (prior -1%) * Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air, Jan. P, ...

Even Beer Demand Slumps

Thursday, February 25th, 2016

I guess demand for alcohol is not inelastic. Via the FT: AB InBev has warned that a slowdown in markets such as Brazil and China will weigh on the group during 2016 after the brewer behind Stella Artois reported full-year results that missed analyst expectations. The pessimistic outlook came as the world’s largest ...

FX

Thursday, February 25th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Little Changed, US Leadership Awaited - The foreign exchange market is unusually calm; there does not appear to be any catalyst for the reversal in the US afternoon yesterday. - Australia reported stronger than expected Q4 15 capex - The eurozone reported better money supply and ...

European Inflation Gauge at Record Low

Thursday, February 25th, 2016

Via Reuters and a sincere thanks to Steve Feiss of Government Perspectives: Feb 25 A key measure of the market's longer-term euro zone inflation expectations fell to a record low on Thursday, fuelling bets on more monetary policy easing and pegging core euro zone government bond yields near lows. The five-year, five-year ...