Archive for February, 2016

Sinking Ship

Sunday, February 7th, 2016

Via the FT: Shipowners in financial distress as dry bulk crisis deepens Companies suspend payments to creditors and make write-offs June 17, 2011 by: Robert Wright in New York Record low prices for transporting coal, iron ore and other dry bulk commodities by sea have pushed shipping companies into severe financial distress. The suspension of payments ...

$20 Oil

Sunday, February 7th, 2016

Via Barrons: Here Comes $20 Oil Oil could fall as low as $20 a barrel in the first half of this year, recovering to $55 by year end. That could help drive stocks, which have closely followed oil prices, much higher. By Gene Epstein February 6, 2016 Oil bulls, take heart. The last leg of the ...

Labor Report

Friday, February 5th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: D SECURITIES DATAFLASH            US: Mixed Start to the Labor Market for 2016 The labor market added 151k jobs in January, which was a touch below expectations. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% following a robust employment gain in the household survey. The underlying details suggest a seasonal lift from better weather ...

Negative Yields Run Rampant

Friday, February 5th, 2016

Via the FT:   Government bond yields send recession signal Universe of negative yielding debt grows beyond $5tn as central banks indicate further easing by: Elaine Moore in London, Robin Wigglesworth in New York and Leo Lewis in Tokyo If major government bond markets are right, the global economy is sliding towards recession and central ...

FX

Friday, February 5th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: It's Not All About US Jobs - The US nonfarm payroll report typically dominates the first Friday a new month, but not today - There have been two reports this week that have heightened concerns about a US recession - There are four other macro-developments to note ...

What to Watch Today

Friday, February 5th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Trade Balance, Dec., est. -$43.2b (prior - $42.37b) * 8:30am: Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Jan., est. 190k (prior 292k) * Change in Private Payrolls, Jan., est. 180k (prior 275k) * Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Jan., est. -2k (prior 8k) * Unemployment Rate, Jan., est. 5% (prior 5%) * ...

Dealer Positions in Corporate Bonds

Friday, February 5th, 2016

Dealer positions in corporate bonds continue to shrink. Bloomberg reports that dealers held less than $20 billion of corporates as of January 27th. This is a new data series for the Fed which began collecting this data in 2013 but this week's total is  new low for the series. Via Bloomberg: IG ...

Brainard Makes Case For Going Slow

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2016

Via the WSJ (Hilsenrath a co author): Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard thinks the reasons for going slow on further interest-rate increases are powerful. The 54-year-old economist is emerging as a significant influence at an uncertain time for monetary policy and market tumult, one whose arguments have traction with the Fed’s leadership. “Recent ...

Overnight Data Preview

Monday, February 1st, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: Of the 29 analysts contributing to Bberg, 27 expect no change in the RBA Cash rate from its record low 2.0%; 2 expect a 25bp cut. S. KOREA: The Bberg consensus expects the Headline CPI to slip back to 1.1% YOY in January from ...